Poll: Season valuations and the bubble? (Patreon)
Content
Hi everyone -- I'm not entirely decided on how to handle the bubble as it pertains to my annual player valuations. I see two distinct philosophies here that I've added in the poll (feel free to comment below as well).
1. "Count the bubble" -- For the 2020 season, the bubble counts, which means any drop offs, injuries or improvements are essentially treated as if the season carried on per usual and finished in June (instead of October).
2. "Don't count the bubble" - Wherever players were in March (based on a reasonable trajectory) is the basis for my valuations, which means players who may have materially improved during the shutdown won't see that credit until they play the 2021 season. This one's trickier because it's hard to do this without trying to fold in the information gained from watching the bubble playoffs. Some thoughts:
- The bubble IS what happened historically, so even though it's unique, focusing on their play now is reflective of what happened.
- Some players may be uniquely helped/hurt by this, particularly older players (who may be slightly worse) and the Year 2/3 guys who improved after 4 months off.
For my active career value rankings (Backpicks 40), it's possible I tweak this in a year or two since surrounding seasons always give me a bit more data to reflect with. Feel free to comment below in addition to the poll response.