On the Pacers' flurry of late-game turnovers, explained (Patreon)

Turnovers and second-chance points and missed free throws, oh my!

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

In a 118-114 overtime loss to the Joel Embiid and Paul George-less Philadelphia 76ers, the Indiana Pacers committed 19 turnovers and gave up 20 offensive rebounds, resulting in a 14-shot advantage for the Sixers. For frame of reference, there were only four games last season that saw the Pacers take 14 or fewer shots than their opponent. In those games, the Pacers posted a 2-2 record, losing to both the Timberwolves and Sixers (oh hey, a pattern!), while notching wins over the Rockets and Hornets. Needles to say, despite their long-standing deficiencies on the glass, it wasn't often that the Pacers lost the possession war by such a wide margin, and when they did, they weren't likely to come out on top against contending-level teams. And, here's the thing: In the wins over Houston and Charlotte, they made 18 or more threes and were nearly flawless at the free throw line, going a combined 46-51 (90.2 percent) from the charity stripe.

That wasn't the case in the home opener, as the Pacers compounded their lack of both ball security and security of rebounds with 11 missed free throws, including splitting a pair at the end of overtime that would've forced double overtime. That's tough! Still, the rebounding stuff isn't exactly new. This version of the Pacers ranked 24th in opponent offensive rebounding rate even after acquiring Pascal Siakam last season. It would be a surprise if they got markedly better in that area, and they might even get worse. After all, now that they're allowing a few more threes, that means more long rebounds.

There's no excuse for some of the second-chances they gave up when four Pacers were quite literally standing (and only standing) in the paint, several of which had very little to do with size advantages or disadvantages, but if they can't stay in front of speedy guards and Myles Turner has to switch out, then he isn't in the vicinity of the glass and these long caroms can be tricky to corral -- especially against teams that soft crash to the high paint.

Of course, it's probably fair to ask why Tyrese Haliburton face-checked Caleb Martin's cutting route without actually ever making contact with a chest-to-chest box-out; but again, that can be difficult to do while attempting to also spot the ball in the air. As such, for a team that already struggles to finish stops with rebounds, dropping from first to fifth in the percentage of shots their opponent take as threes, might, strangely enough, further complicate matters even if the ongoing shift is better for the overall health of their first-chance defense. Through three games, they've given up the second-highest opponent offensive rebounding rate following a missed three in the league, as they've already failed to track down 25 boards after their opponent has launched from deep, which also marks the second-highest tally. And yet, they were still in position to win against Philly, leading 102-99 with 1:13 to play, before they coughed up the ball on three-straight possessions, which was arguably more damaging, as another departure from who they were on the whole last season, than expecting them to be something they've never really been and probably won't become, albeit to a less exaggerated degree.

Here's what went wrong, reviewing each possession via play-type.

34-High

After a made shot from Kelly Oubre, the bench could be heard yelling for "34-High," which is a down screen from the three (Aaron Nesmith) for the four (Pascal Siakam) into a high ball-screen or get action hand-off between Haliburton and Siakam. As it so happens, the Pacers also ran this at the start of the prior possession, and it lead to a downhill drive for Haliburton.

Even with him attacking with his left, there was reason to go back to the same action, especially since Eric Gordon was guarding Siakam instead of Martin.

Nesmith doesn't make contact on the down screen to give Siakam a head start, so this ends up being a ball-screen rather than the get action. Either way, Gordon is either going to be guarding Haliburton or Siakam. Unlike Maxey in the prior clip, however, Martin is parked in the gap, attempting to deter penetration. That means Haliburton has to change directions in order to knife to the basket. When Oubre helps at the nail, that needed to be a kick-out. Instead, while technically not a turnover, Haliburton ends up getting his shot blocked, gifting a live-ball opportunity to the Sixers headed the other way. That's an execution error, which has been somewhat recurrent through three games for Haliburton, as he's been a bit out of whack as far as passing when he should and, in this case, shooting when he should pass. Still, the logic of involving the team's two best players, particularly with the opportunity to go at the team's weakest wing defender on the floor with Maxey positioned as the secondary rim protector was sound enough.

Wide Stack

On the next trip down the floor, Nembhard got his turn at the wheel, as the call was "wide stack," involving a high cross screen from Turner for Haliburton at the weak-side wing, which he intentionally rejects to become the stack-screener in the lane. Earlier in the quarter, when the Pacers ran that same play, Nembhard rejected the ball-screen with a right-to-left cross when Maxey got overeager.

As a result, Drummond had to hang with the ball for a beat, as Maxey and Martin traded off between Haliburton and Turner. The end result was a triple switch; however, based on how Drummond reacted, backing off toward Turner, it would appear as though the intent was for him to play in drop and hop around the back-screen while switching only the guards. If so, then Haliburton would've had the chance to pop out to the perimeter against Maxey for a shoot-or-drive decision. That's optimal, as was a wide open shot for Nembhard, which he for some reason hesitated to take. The only problem is, the Sixers actually triple-switched with under a minute to play, as Drummond stepped up to the ball and manufactured a clutch steal with his quick hands.

For as much as Nembhard likes to shake defenders with his behind-the-back dribble to change directions and mosey to his spot from mid-range, it's a little surprising that he just went full steam ahead, especially given the way in which Drummond had to reach across his own body in order to poke the ball free with his left hand. Plus, Martin was also prepared to help in the gap. He just got sloppy at the controls, unfortunately. Otherwise, there was reason to initiate with Nembhard so as to puncture the defense against Maxey both at the point of attack and potentially with Haliburton on the re-attack following the switch. Again, these are operator errors.

Slice

Finally, in proving that three apparently isn't actually a charm, the Pacers went to "slice," which starts with a ghost screen, as the player at the opposite wing blurs in front of the ball and relocates to the corner, pushing the player in that corner to the opposite corner. From there, the center sets a down screen for the four-man to screen for the ball. Only the four-man doesn't actually screen for the ball, as they instead set a back-screen into a get action hand-off for Haliburton at the elbow to get downhill with his dominant right hand. Overall, the design of the play acts as a release valve for ball pressure while also eliminating the opportunity that would be there for the screener to call out the coverage on a long-run ball-screen. Plus, given that most bigs are going to stay attached to Turner at the elbow as ajump-shooter, Haliburton typically has an avenue to turn the corner against non-switching defenses.

That worked in the first half; however, coming on the heels of the prior strip against Nembhard, when it was evident that Drummond was playing more aggressive up at the level of the screen with his hand activity and/or switching out (perhaps while remembering the prior outcome of that very same play), there probably could've been a way to prevent history from immediately repeating itself.

As a potential counter, rather than chasing his own pass and getting the ball back at the elbow, there were a few times last season when Haliburton would throw the ball ahead and then use a misdirection cut to sneak backdoor, like so.

To be fair, Turner can be somewhat jittery as a hand-off operator, and he had already committed a few turnovers of his own trying to enter the ball to Siakam in the post, but with Drummond playing higher up the floor, the only players available to protect against the cut either would've been Gordon or Maxey, which seems preferable to staying above the break.

Either way, what plays were run wasn't so much the issue as how they were run and the fact that they still aren't running as often. The Pacers ranked sixth in the NBA last season at limiting their own turnovers. Last season showed that they could overcome what they weren't as a defensive team and on the glass to still stack up a lot of regular-season wins. That won't be the case if they don't measure up to themselves in rediscovering who they are. Put simply, they can't be a bottom-10 defense with a bottom-10 opponent offensive rebounding rate that also ranks bottom-10 in turnover rate, especially since the latter tends to exacerbate the former, just as the former can hamper their ability to play with pace. It's a vicious circle, connected not so much to rotation decisions, but the ongoing holes in the rotation, along with a backcourt that, for a three-possession flurry, was too often spinning it's tires without finding much tread. The more Haliburton is defended like this, with at least one defender in the back-court, the more he's going to need to play with another ball-handling guard, as Siakam was more likely to provide utility in this game with early rim runs against Philadelphia's thin frontcourt at the four.

Between the guards, Tyrese Maxey did the majority of his damage against T.J. McConnell, scoring a mammoth 57.6 points per 100 half-court match-ups, compared to 35.8 against Nembhard. Siakam played some of his finest defense to date with the Pacers in the few instances when he got switched onto the high-octane guard, but the obvious counter for that match-up over a larger sample size would've been to force him to chase over with Turner as the screener defender (i.e. remember that possession when Turner had to defend in space against Maxey and was pulled away from the glass?).

Even with the miscues, the Pacers still went plus-nine in 31 minutes with Haliburton and Nembhard on the floor together, and they're still plus-7 in 84 minutes overall. The adjustment for those two late in the game, as also applied to the team's overall approach to valuing and pursuing possession (with a gentle nod to Aaron Nesmith's late surge of energy), isn't about which levers were pulled but rather the untimely lack of force and follow-through by which they were pulled.