How a more physical NBA could affect the Pacers (Patreon)

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By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper 

On Tuesday, prior to the team's first session of training camp, Rick Carlisle joined The Wake Up Call with KB and Andy for his weekly local radio spot and revealed that he and the rest of the NBA's head coaches had been in contact with the league about the state of contact in the league.

"It's going to be much more physical this year," Carlisle said. "Games are going to look a lot more like FIBA than the old, freedom-of-movement NBA."

When asked to elaborate as to why he was expecting such a change, he bluntly stated, "We sat in a head coaches meeting three weeks ago, and they told us it was going to be that way and showed us video of it."

Last season, in observing that scoring was down following the All-Star break, Tom Haberstroh analyzed the drop at his publication The Finder and 'found" a coinciding decline in foul calls beginning around the start of February. Around that same time (Feb. 8), the Pacers also traded Buddy Hield to Philadelphia, which (with the exception of Bennedict Mathurin going down with an injury a month later) effectively solidified the rotation for the remainder of the season and most closely mirrors the rotation that will be returning. As such, in an attempt to look ahead at what effect a more physical NBA could potentially have on the Pacers this season, there's reason to think that looking backward at that key stretch, beginning on February 8 and running through to the regular-season finale, might provide a glimpse as to that which should be expected.

With that date as a separating line, this table shows which teams saw the biggest drop in free-throw attempt rate (as a measure of the number of free throw attempts per field-goal attempt), listed in descending order. Notably, with the exception of Memphis and Brooklyn, every team experienced a downturn.

Philadelphia leads the pack in drop-off by a wide margin, but that can largely be attributed to the injury to Joel Embiid, who topped the league in free throw attempts per game through January. Not unlike the rest of the league, the Pacers saw a negative change in free throw attempt rate, ranking 16th in difference; however, when assessing how their free throw attempt rate stacked up relative to the other teams in each of those separate spans, they actually jumped from 28th through all games played on or before February 8 to 25th over the games played after that date. As a team, although their already high rate of drives went up by a notch, their percentage of shots taken at the rim along with their number of paint touches per game stayed mostly the same.

When looking at the change in shooting fouled percentage for the roster individually, this table shows which players were hit the hardest, perhaps both figuratively and literally.

Interestingly enough, most of the players at the top of the list, who saw the biggest drop in shooting fouls drawn, are ball-handling guards. Of course, several caveats apply. Neither Andrew Nembhard nor T.J. McConnell are exactly known for getting to the line. In fact, among the 137 players who averaged at least five drives per game last season, Nembhard ranked 130th in drives with free throws as the outcome and McConnell came in at 113th. Whereas the latter operates like a human pogo-stick, turning even floaters into jump-shots, the former has a tendency to use a lot of shot fakes without actually using the shot fake, getting a player in the air only to then fadeaway. Consequently, while both of them bring plenty of value in other areas, it isn't exactly a major difference for either of them to go from paltry to a pittance.

Haliburton's change, though, is a bit of a different story, especially when considering all of the different change-ups and plot twists there were to his season. Remember, around the same time as teams were experiencing a decline in foul calls, the Pacers also traded Hield while Haliburton was still dealing with the lingering effects of his injury. Tellingly, after February 8, Indiana's star guard didn't just draw a lower percentage of shooting fouls, he also drove the ball less, recorded fewer paint touches per game, and saw a decline in his percentage of shots attempted at the rim.

On the one hand, it's certainly possible that the combination of his slender frame and generally frictionless play-style, built around range and touch, may have played a part as to why, when confronted by more physicality at the point of attack, he didn't get downhill as often. On the other hand, however, he was clearly limited by the injury, as he was hesitant to power off his left leg or crouch through a crowd with his low, crafty gather and long, bounding strides. Meanwhile, as the best movement shooter in the starting lineup, he went from Hield blurring in front of the ball for him to blurring for his teammates -- handling less, while screening and cutting more.

Needless to say, from at times appearing like a ghost of himself to operating as a ghost screener, there were a lot of conflating factors that contributed to his downturn in turning the ball downhill, which aren't likely to carry over, regardless of officiating, so long as he stays fully healthy while potentially getting more bumps and bruises.

"You just have to adjust to how the game is being officiated," Haliburton replied, when asked what a more physical NBA could mean for him and the team. "Last year, we were No. 1 in the league in paint scoring, but we didn't get to the free throw line a ton. So, I think we've just got to harp on continuing to get downhill and stop thinking that it's an officiating thing and (focus) more on us seeking out and drawing fouls."

To that point, what's more notable for the Pacers as it pertains to whistles isn't necessarily what happened before and after February 8 or what's to come next season, but rather why, despite living in the restricted area, they aren't getting to the line more often overall. Turns out, their fast-paced brand of basketball, which so often propels them forward, may be holding them back. Last season, the Pacers were one of only six teams who attempted more than 19 percent of their two-point shots in transition, as they trailed just Toronto (947), Oklahoma City (944), and Washington (908) in total volume of attempts (903). At the same time, while playing at breakneck speed and generating odd-man advantages that perhaps led to less traffic around the rim, they ranked 24th in percentage of shooting fouls drawn in transition.

Another factor to consider is their spacing. For a team that often plays five-out, with Myles Turner either popping out to three or trailing above the arc, opposing rim protectors tend to stand further away from the rim when a shot is attempted. Tellingly, although the Pacers ranked third in drives per 100 possessions last season, they came in at 23rd in the percentage of those drives in which a help defender was present, according to Second Spectrum. Plus, they also ranked third in drives per 100 possessions that ended with a pass. Taken altogether, that means they spend a lot of time either outrunning the defense in transition or keeping the ball ahead of the defense in the half-court, all while enjoying wider driving lanes.

"We're trying to lead the league in passes again," Carlisle said, following the team's first day of training camp. "It brings more energy to our entire game, not just our offense, and it makes us harder to guard."

Of course, as was previously pointed out with regard to Nembhard and McConnell, the Pacers don't exactly have a lot of players who have mastered the dark art of drawing contact. Siakam is certainly accustomed to playing bash-ball, as he routinely transforms the elbow-area extended into his personal bumper car arena, but his overall percentage of shooting fouls drawn on his shots dropped with the Pacers (13.0 percent), in an offense with more alignment versatility, by comparison to the Raptors (16.6 percent), where he had considerably less room to stretch his legs. That said, when looking at only his time with the Pacers, he was a rare exception in that, as the league was experiencing a drop in fouls calls, his percentage of shooting fouls drawn actually increased from 10.4 percent before February 8 to 13.7 percent after, albeit while only playing 11 games for Indiana prior to that date. Some of that jump likely has to do with getting to know his new team over time, but he also handled the ball more, with his drives per 100 possessions rising from 15.7 to 17.6, as teams started dialing up the pressure against Haliburton.

The opposite was the case for Bennedict Mathurin, whose percentage of shooting fouls drawn on his shots went up, increasing by 1.3 percent, even though he was in the driver's seat less often, tallying 9.7 drives per 100 possessions following February 8, compared to 13.3 leading up to that date. Of course, his season ended not long after that line of demarcation, as he only played in a total of nine games from then on out. Over that span, his knack for slowing down in transition to draw contact was in full display against the Spurs, as he racked up 13 trips to the line, and he also received a few more touches in the paint, catching the ball with his back to the basket. And yet, just as the more interesting question for the Pacers was why they weren't getting to the line at a similar rate to how often they were getting to the paint, what's stands out more here for Mathurin isn't the midseason before-and-after splits, but rather the fact that he saw an overall decline in his percentage of shooting fouls drawn on his shots by comparison to his rookie season, when he would routinely bend to contact like a sunflower searching for the light.

And, here's the thing: whereas the Pacers as a team didn't often see help defenders present on drives (remember, they ranked 23rd in this category as a percentage last season), the same did not apply to Mathurin, whose strong will led to him seeing help on 86.7 percent of his drives -- which marked the highest frequency of anyone on the team. Granted, some of that likely has to do with lineup configurations. After all, Mathurin's usage rate balloons from 19.9 percent in 698 minutes with Haliburton to 26.1 percent in 840 minutes without Haliburton. If Mathurin has the ball as the primary bench scorer when Haliburton isn't on the floor in groupings that also feature McConnell, then there's a reasonable chance that McConnell's defender will feature in the driving lane. Still, according to Second Spectrum, Mathurin nevertheless saw a help defender on 85.4 percent of his drives when McConnell was off the floor. That's because, there's another critical area where the rarely-deterred slasher differs from the Pacers.

Last season, among the 137 players who averaged at least five drives per game, Mathurin ranked 131st in pass percentage (24.5 percent), trailing only Jaren Jackson (10.7), Joel Embiid (16.7), Kelly Oubre (17.0), Karl-Anthony Towns (19.5), Alperen Sengun (23.2), and GG Jackson (23.4) -- none of whom are guards. At times, there were games in which it seemed as though his field of vision was expanding, but they were mostly inflection points. On the whole, he still exists somewhat in the in between. Like a trapeze artist, he's let go of the swing behind him in terms of trying to score no matter what, but he hasn't quite latched onto the swing coming towards him, as it pertains to reading closeouts and locating kick-out avenues before the passing window has closed. If and until he does, defenses will likely continue having reason to collapse on his drives, which could potentially be exacerbated if the NBA starts allowing more contact. In that sense, the spacing around him, in contrast to the freneticism of the team as a whole, won't matter as much unless also accentuated by his spatial awareness.

"Offensively, you're not going to get touch foul calls, just as simple as that," Carlise said. "So, you've got to play with a level of force that gets the whistle to blow. You have to put the defense in a real bind for the whistle to blow. Driving into a crowd and throwing something up and then complaining about the referees, that's not going to get it."

Of course, physicality goes both ways. During the playoffs, the Pacers logged over 400 possessions of full-court pressure, which was the most of any team in Synergy's 15-year database. And yet, the Pacers posted a lower opponent free throw attempt rate throughout the postseason (0.263) than during the regular season (0.289), when they ranked dead-last in that category and had yet to fully dial up their activity. Likewise, after Aaron Nesmith led all non-bigs in shooting fouls committed per 100 possessions during the regular season (3.41), minimum 1,000 minutes played, he saw a reduction in that rate during the playoffs (3.28), even as he was tasked with taking on the primary assignment against Khris Middleton, Jalen Brunson, and Jayson Tatum -- the latter two of whom ranked among the top-20 players in the league in free throw attempts per game during the regular season.

All of which is to say that, while a more physical NBA may not inhibit the Pacers from playing their fast-paced, free-wheeling brand of basketball, regardless of how infrequently they get to line, so long as they maintain the grease of their ball movement; it's possible that the pressure they apply at the other end of the floor could be enhanced, or at least more easily sustained, if the officials are less pressed to keep the movement of players as unrestrained.