1.1 - Hypothesis (Patreon)

Season 2022/23

1.

Something was different. Now, in addition to seeing heading, jumping, pace, passing and so on, I could also see a player's CA and PA.

How did I celebrate this life-changing event? Not even with a shrug. What did I do with this glorious new super power? I took a trainer off and poured out a litre of water and mud.

With a series of sighs and bone-cold shivers, I wandered from pitch to pitch. Three games had resumed after the storm and one was waiting for a batch of lads to come back from a nearby caff. Almost every player had a CA of 1 and a PA of 1. A few had 2s and 3s. One guy had a PA of 4. I watched him for a while but he seemed no different from anyone else.

My menus, tabs, and screens were all otherwise the same. Still no help section. No glossary. No list of achievements I could unlock. Certainly no explanation of CA and PA.

I stuck around for the last game to resume, but when it did, enlightenment didn't follow.

So I'd achieved my goal. Whoop-de-doo.

***

I went home and had a long shower, then went to devour articles about Euro 22 until the match started at 5pm. From what I read, England had scored a lot of goals and been playing sensational football until their semi-final against Spain, who had outplayed them and were horribly unlucky to lose. Germany would be a test on another level - they were as technical as Spain but had Alex Popp up front. The papers talked about her like she was The Terminator. In the clips I saw there would be a thicket of defenders and then this tall, powerful woman would scatter them like bowling pins and smash the ball into the net. How could you stop that? With a harpoon, maybe. Or better, an ion cannon.

Near kick-off, Beth texted me. u watchin?

It had been quite a long time since a woman had texted me, so I can't say I wasn't flattered. Which is a roundabout way of saying I was flattered.

Me: The thing about Etruscan furniture on BBC 2? Yeah. Who knew earthenware was so interesting?

Her: u gonna make me use full sntncs?

Me: Are you trying to write syntax?

Her: sen-ten-ces. there's nowt on BBC 2 about pots. why u so weird? That caught my attention. I hadn't mentioned pots. She'd read 'earthenware' and thought of pots. And she was at university. Why was she pretending to be illiterate?

Me: I've been reading up on women’s footy and it says until recently England had a man in charge. Former Man United player, too. I'd feel a lot more confident if he was still around.

Her: i no ur winding me up. Wont work. im buzzin

She was right that I was teasing her - the male former player (the lesser Neville) had been something of a disaster and the current coach was considered a legit tactical genius. But you can't out-tactic an actual Terminator. If I was trying to wind you up I'd tell you I'd placed a 500 quid bet on Germany to win with Popp to score first.

Her: u wasted ur £££. Popp's out.

It seemed like she was winding ME up, because I'd seen Popp's name on the team sheet, but I double checked and the news had broken that Germany's star player had injured herself in the warm-up. Horrible luck. Wow. So England have this in the bag, right?

Her: do not ginx this

Me: I promise never to ginx anything. lol

Two minutes later: jinx

The final kicked off and right away Germany had a player clean through on goal. A decent shot, well-saved by Mary Earps. Earps projected an air of supreme confidence, as did the German goalie. And why not? They were professional athletes playing for big clubs. It wasn't like the old days.

The game was fascinating, and tense. England looked nervous; Germany seemed destined to win. I felt there were several shifts in the tactics from both coaches. Germany were dominating the ball but England were trying to absorb the pressure, let the Germans move up the pitch, then break on the counter attack.

Counter attack! CA! Could that be the meaning? A player's ability to counter attack?

Which would make PA... I tried to think of football words beginning with P. Top of the list was pressing. The ability to close down and put pressure on an opponent, and maybe take the ball from them or force them into a mistake. Modern pressing had been perfected in Germany, and was taken to an extreme by teams like Liverpool. So... Counter Attack and Pressing Ability?

That would probably match up with modern football theory and make CA and PA two of the attributes pro players would need to succeed. Interesting.

Again I thought about going to watch a professional game to test this hypothesis. With my Scottish money I could afford one Premier League game. Team loyalties aside, which team would be best to watch? Man City? Well, those players would have high PA but they usually had 70% possession and didn't spend a lot of time on the counter attack. Liverpool? High PA and CA, probably. Would that be statistically interesting? Would it tell me anything if all the numbers were high? It depended on who they were playing. The best choice to learn a lot in one match was Man United. Under a previous coach they'd played a very effective counter attacking style, and I expected some of their players would have high CA scores. Meanwhile, the most recent coaches had tried and failed to get them to press in a modern style, so I could expect the players to have lowish PA - if my theory was right. I started to guess at the CA and PA of certain players. Marcus Rashford, god love him, would be near the max in CA and abysmally low in PA.

Testing would have to wait until I could get into a stadium.

Back on the TV, England scored a phenomenal goal - a cheeky lob, in the final, in front of 90,000 fans and millions on TV. Staggering, really. Germany increased the pressure, equalised, and from that moment there would only be one winner. But England stuck at it, hung in there, and won in extra time with a scrappy goal from Chloe Kelly.

I could see why Beth found her an inspiration. They looked similar, and Kelly played for Man City. Kelly was a proper Mancunian from top to bottom (suspicious tan, bleach blonde hair, gobby), and here she was scoring the winner in a massive, massive game. I wondered what part of Manchester she'd grew up in. I was astonished to read on Wikipedia that she was from London. No wonder people complain every high street looks the same.

Emotions were high as England celebrated. For many of the players it had been a long journey to get to this point. Paying for their own kit, training in squalor, their achievements met with total indifference. And now they were the biggest show in town. It was quite emotional. Chloe Kelly was interviewed by the BBC but when she heard her favourite song being played she ran off mid-interview, microphone and all, to sing with her teammates. Hilarious. My first thought was that she could win 'Sports Personality of the Year' and with the right sponsorships she could make a ton of money. A ton.

About ten minutes after the match ended, I realised I was absolutely drained. It wasn't just the rollercoaster and the palpable emotion of the final; I'd been thinking about football almost non-stop since I'd met Nick. First, I needed an early night, and then I needed a total break.

I dobbed a blob of toothpaste onto my brush and stuck it into my mouth. My phone buzzed. It was Beth. The phrasing made me spit toothpaste onto the mirror.

u cummin to celebrate?