J1 League Preview Report - GW419 (Patreon)

Intro

8 games this GW in the J league with 4 big games being streamed on Youtube:

Kawasaki, Urawa and YFM played midweek in the ACL

Kawasaki had to travel to Thailand and their priority is the ACL and also they have the league cup final next week. Rotation possible here

YFM and Urawa are concentrating on the league and rotated heavily midweek. Strongest available X11 to play this weekend.

Title Race - 4 Games to go!

• Kobe got another win and now 3 wins away from the title!
• YFM won to keep things interesting.
• Urawa are in the driving seat to get third place (and the ACL spot). 

Relegation Battle

• Shonan and Yokohama FC both won to keep things as they were
• Kashiwa lost dragging them within 3 points of the bottom.
• If teams are tied on the same points, it will be decided by GD. Yokohama FC have the worst by far.

Suspensions

• Ominami - Kawasaki* Replacement -Takai, Jesiel possible though not sure hes fit to start yet.
• Higashi - Kyoto
• Toyokawa- Kyoto*Replacement - Kinoshita fav to replace.

Predicted Lineups

Sapporo vs Yokohama FC

Sapporo

• Just 1 point from last 4 games. 14th in league and playing for nothing. 
• Striker Ogashiwa an injury concern. Gun Hee fav to start.
• There are a number of midfielders available including Fukumori and Kobayashi.
• Hints manager will experiment a little.

Yokohama FC

• Bottom of table and in relegation battle.  
• Impressed in a vital win against FC Tokyo. Remain bottom but with just 1 point off safety with 4 games remaining. 
• Yamashita not seen in training afaik and likely misses this game.
• Have the worst away record in the league with just 1 win all season.

Prediction

IMO YFC have a big chance to get something from this game which is not suggested in the odds! They have been playing much better recently and have some momentum/belief after last weeks win. Sapporo always create chances esp at home but their performances esp at the back are v unpredictable!

Kashima vs Urawa

Kashima

• Were poor against top of the table Kobe and were well beaten 3-1. Now are 6 points away from the top 3 (AFC spot).
• Shibasaki out injured and misses rest of season.
• Chinen seen in training and could start. Hard to call as manager trying out Araki/diff formations.

Urawa

• Third in the table. Unbeaten in 7 league games. Played midweek in AFC.
• Kante returns from suspension but is only in light training.
• Rotated heavily but were v poor in the 2-0 ACL loss midweek.
• Akimoto and Nakajima in full training and available.  Akimoto is versatile and can play LB/LW. Indication is he starts.

Prediction

Both teams are solid and hard to breakdown but lack creativity upfront. I see this as a low scoring draw and possibly 0-0.

Shonan vs Kobe

Shonan

• In relegation battle and 2nd bottom. In good form, 3 wins in 4.
• SBK has been spotted in training and is fit to play. I think Tomii who has got back to back clean sheets starts again
• Tanaka should start after being on the bench last game due to int duty fatigue

Kobe

• Top of the table. Clear by 4 points with 4 games left in the season.
• Hatsuse returns from suspension. Is on set pieces and links up v well with Osako especially with his crosses.
• Ide slight risk after going off last game with a slight problem. Seen in training and should start.

Prediction

Shonan look like a different team in recent weeks. Defensively the introduction of Min Tae has really improved them. He and the team will need to be at their best to keep out this Kobe attack. I see it being an even game though feel Kobe have too much quality and will win and be one step closer to their first ever title.

Kyoto vs Niigata

Kyoto

• Lost back to back games but are now out of relegation risk and playing for nothing. 
• Defender Hisashi and Toyokawa suspended. A few options available to replace
• Risk manager could experiment with team

Niigata

• Are 11th and safe from relegation. 
• Manager rotating players and team unpredictable esp CBs. 
• In decent form and unbeaten in last 5.
• Mito should return to lineup after missing last game after int travel fatigue

Prediction

Both teams are playing for nothing in the league. Niigata are playing better imo though I will sit on the fence and go for a score draw. I also wouldnt be surprised if we see both managers experiment with their lineup.

Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka

Cerezo Osaka

• Just 1 win in 5. Top 3 chances fading and down to 7th in the table.
• This is a local derby.  
• Watanabe and Yamanaka available again. Most likely on the bench.
• Manager changed formation last game, indication sticks to this again with Kida benched.

Gamba Osaka

• In awful form. 4 losses in last 5 games. Not playing for anything. Manager experimenting with side. 
• Lavi missed the last game and is available again and likely starts
• Alano is a doubt with a muscle issue
• Handa in full training and available. Manager sounds cautious about starting him
• Jebali could return as striker or manager may well keep with Usami up front. Hard to call.

Prediction

Local derby could well spark Gamba back to life. However, their current performances have been v poor and disjointed. I see Cerezo winning comfortably.

Fukuoka vs YFM

Fukuoka

• 8th in the table, small chance of top 3(AFC spot). Lost for first time in 5 last game. 
• Nara likely returns to CB. Team is stable mainly due to injuries/lack of available players!

YFM

• Rotated heavily in the midweek win in the AFC.
• 2nd in the league and in the title chase. Defensive injuries mounting up.
• Eduardo in full training. I think he starts (waiting on late press conference). Nagato is out
• Uenaka, Yan, Lopes all likely to return. Elber vs Miyaichi to start is hard to call, I give Miyaichi the slight edge.

Prediction

Fukuoka are a very tricky team to face and YFM have alot of players either out, doubts or fatigued. I still give them the edge as they have experienced players who know how to win titles

FC Tokyo vs Hiroshima

FC Tokyo

• 10th in the league and not playing for anything. 
• Manager experimenting with lineup. Winger Nakagawa returns from suspension.
• Matsuki also returns in midfield after resting last week.
• Slowik seen in training but condition unclear. Brandon fav to continue in nets
• FC Tokyo have won their last 4 meetings and unbeaten in 7 games against Hiroshima

Hiroshima

• In good form and 6th. 
• Chasing top 3/AFC spot and 5 points behind. 
• Marcos Junior and Pieros not seen in training yet and prob injured. Unlikely to feature.

Prediction

Hiroshima have strugged against FC Tokyo in recent seasons including losing to them earlier this season. With players also returning for FC Tokyo, I see this being a tight game and a score draw.

Kashiwa vs Kawasaki Frontale

Kashiwa

• 3rd bottom and in relegation battle.
• Key players Savio, Hosoya and Inukai return after missing last weeks loss.
• Rest of side should remain the same as recent weeks with no known new injuries.

Kawasaki

• 10th in the table and playing for nothing in the league. 
• Played in Thailand on Tues for ACL. In decent form. 
• Ominami suspended.
• Strong hints of some rotation this game. Takai and Jesiel both in the running for the CB spot.
• In general players like Yamane and Wakizaka rarely rested, otherwise most spots at risk of change.

Prediction

Kashiwa with their returning players have a huge chance to beat this Kawasaki team who will be fatigued from the midweek ACL game in Thailand. Though they have been in decent form, I see Kashiwa winning this game in an open game.

Probabilities

Source: https://twitter.com/keirin_en

Stacks

Def

Cerezo stack (KJH + Toriumi) look good vs a misfiring Gamba team who are in awful form and struggling to score. Urawa vs Kashima could well cancel each other out/be 0-0 so I like Nishkawa + Scholz and Harakawa + Sekigawa.

Attack

Kobe are playing great and going for the title. I like their scoring potential even though Shonan have improved heaps recently.

Full Team

• Kobe

Finish

I hope you found this useful!

If I see anything important that breaks before the deadline, I will post on Discord. 

If you have any feedback or queries, just give me a shout.

Enjoy the games and good luck!