GW369 - J1 League Report for Sorare (Patreon)

Intro

We have 8 games this GW in the J1 league. This will be the 3rd games inside a week for most teams and with Wednesday games, makes the schedule hectic and his sadly means rotation is highly possible! 

I will outline where I see most risk. With 6 of the 8 games being on Sunday, we also wont get training and press conference news for a lot of teams.

This basically sums up things:

Bad memes aside, my personal strategy is to dodge the "simple" DNPs from injury and suspension info and then look at the info from the manager, rotation patterns from the weekend and previous management choices.

I know that DNPs will happen and for me division choice is most important. Sometimes, depending on the gallery we have to take some risks and when that happens, I like to look at the ceiling/peak score of the player ie whats the best they can score

The full schedule including the games on Youtube International can be found below:

Please note Shonan are not playing this GW

We also have the ACL final second leg. If Urawa win, they qualify for this years tournament and get 6+ games. If they lose, Hiroshima qualify!

I will do a separate post on the ACL, it brings great utility and some of the games can be very very high scoring so has given me a massive edge the last couple of seasons.

Predicted Lineups

These can also be found on Playsharper website here

Important to note the %s used here and where they are not above 75% it is because I feel there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards.

These are my own opinion of the situation at each team. I try to be as neutral as possible but we all have biases :) So always do your own research when making picks!

Sapporo vs FC Tokyo

Notes

• Aoki went off injured last game and I dont see him starting
• Sugeno vanished midweek. He is certainly in training and frustratingly the situation is very unclear on who starts. I give the slight edge to Gu
• Arano returns from suspension and should start
• Players like Baba are fighting for starting spots. He has spoken about his willingness to play in multiple spots if needed
• Fernandes could return to starting X11, in that i see Suga move into defence for Nakamura 
• Fukai is back in full training but will take some time until he is in contention to play

Notes

• Higuchi is suspended for this game
• FC Tokyo rotated significantly midweek. The manager wasnt happy with the performance in the first half especially.
• I see Kashif, Morishige and Koizumi returning for this game
• Cant rule out some of the players who played lots of mins the last two game (eg Nakagawa, Watanabe etc) being rotated. Nakagawa did come off early last game at 60 mins which should benefit his chances to start again

Odds

Prediction

I see this as an even matchup. I think it will be a tight game and a draw feels a fair reflection of that

Sapporo 1-1 FC Tokyo

Nagoya vs Gamba

Notes

• Nagoya have played very consistent teams and no known new injuries
• The main possibly of change is Izumi starting over Uchida

Notes

• Gamba lost again midweek in the Osaka Derby. They played well and somewhat unfortunate to lose. However, 1 win in their opening 11 games paints a grim picture
• I see the team getting freshened up a little with players such as Yamami,R.Yamamoto and Suzuki pushing for starts
• Outside Meshino going off in an injury on Wednesday there are no new injuries.

Odds

Prediction

Nagoya have been excellent this season and the last minute equaliser vs Kobe will further boost confidence in the game. I see a comfortable win with a good chance of a home side cleansheet

Nagoya 2-0Gamba Osaka

Hiroshima vs Fukuoka

Notes

• Douglas Viera is suspended for having a fight with the corner flag
• Hiroshima didnt play midweek so less need for rotation. I see the same team as the last game 

Notes

• Grolli is suspended for this game
• Nagaishi returned in nets and after a cleansheet is clear fav to remain in goal
• Yamagishi went off with a slight muscle injury/cramp - it didnt look anything major to me so i think he plays on the weekend (im no doctor though!)

Odds

Prediction

Fukuoka have played solid this season and hard to breakdown. It will be a tough game but Hiroshima have too much firepower and will win comfortably

Hiroshima 2-0Fukuoka

YFM vs Kyoto

• MJ is fav to start after resting midweek. The battle with Nishimura with a starting spot is ongoing but MJ is playing better to me
• Yan Mateus had a great game with 2 goals, he can play on both wings but himself said hes best suited to the right. I hope he gets another chance this game but theres a chance that seniority wins over and Mizunuma starts
• Matsubura wasnt in the squad last game. Sadly no training pics with him yet so unclear if he was rested or there was injury
• Eduardo played and did very well. Following the pattern so far this season, Watanabe and Tsunoda to return

Notes

• Despite the loss to Frontale, Kyoto played fine
• I see a similar lineup to last time, with players like Patric and Fukuoka in contention for a start if there is rotation

Odds

Prediction

YFM will have too much in their locker for Kyoto. I see this as a comfortable win for YFM though can easily see them conceding as they are making a few sloppy mistakes at the back each game

YFM 3-1 Kyoto

Niigata vs Kashiwa

Notes

• Ito to return after being rested midweek
• Deng returned midweek. The CB position continues to be rotated so he is a risk
• Taniguchi likely to return as striker 

Notes

• Sento and Shiibashi are doubts
• Matsumoto is performing fine and should continue in nets
• Team is playing much better so I dont expect many changes out the injured players

Odds

Prediction

Niigata are in poor form after a good start to the season whereas Kashiwa are going through the polar opposite. At home in particular and with Ito hopefully back, I see Niigata getting at least a draw 

Niigata 1 - 1 Kashiwa

Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima Antlers

Notes

• Cerezo have played the exact same lineup the last 3 league games
• No indication of change other than some chatter on the message boards. I expect the same team but at same time wouldnt be surprised by a few changes to freshen things up. Despite the win against Gamba, I felt Cerezo were lethargic. 
• Riki Matsuda did go off at half time, this can an indicator of injury so my hunch is to be careful there
• Key players like Ceara and Harakawa went off early which reduces there rotation risk slightly

Notes

• Kashima are winning and doing alot better. The manager has said he will continue with the same setup
• Anzai is doubt for this game. Tsunemoto returned last game and should play again. Hirose is in great form so the battle is Anzai vs Tsunemoto and alot depends on their respective fitness
• Chinen came on early and did excellent. My hunch is he starts but nothing from the manager about this hence the 65% confidence

Odds

Prediction

Im sitting on the fence so much with these matchups, my arse is full of splinters! Another draw.... 2-2 with a Suzuki yellow card for kissing Kagawa on the head after he scores

Cerezo Osaka 2-2 Kashima Antlers

Vissel Kobe - Yokohama FC

Notes

• Saito is suspended for this game
• Ide is a doubt after going off with an injury
• I have Sasaki and Osaki favs to replace them. 
• Another team that doesnt rotate much in league games (heavy rotation in cup games). It could well change against a "weaker" side but no indication of this

Notes

• YFC finally won their first game of the season!
• Based on this, I think they keep a similar side to last time around. Mita is a player that could come in

Odds

Prediction

YFC have been the whipping boys so far this season. They have tried alot of different formations and players and its way too early to know if the win against Niigata was a one off or not.

This will be a huge test for them and despite the late drama against Nagoya, Vissel have been very impressive so I can only see a comfortable win

Kobe 2-0 YFC

Frontale vs Sagan Tosu

Notes

• Frontale chalked up another win against Sapporo. The manager spoke about wanting to keep consistency but at same time hinted there will be rotation in the game. 
• Though no players were named, I see Marcinho and Tachibanada as the 2 most likely to come in. 
• Kamifukumoto has impressed and will continue in nets .

Notes

• No sign of Fujita or Fukuta who remain doubtful for this game
• Kabayama and Horigome pushing for starts

Odds

Prediction

Frontale are growing with confidence and some key players are returning to match fitness. I see them winning this game comfortably

Kawasaki Frontale 2-0 Sagan Tosu


ACL FINAL

Notes

• Urawa drew the first game 1-1 away from home
• I expect a v similar team to lineup 
• Sakai is an injury concern, no news from the manager on this but I expect him to play in such a pivotal game

If Urawa win the join the below J and K league teams in this years ACL that starts in September. If they lose, Hiroshima get there spot!

Finish

I hope found this useful!

As always these are just my own views on the situation based on research for each team. There are press conferences happening currently though what info comes out varies by the club and managers mood!

The teams with best xG, CS and winning odds are:

• Kobe
• Hiroshima
• Yokohama FM

I will be updating the Discord Channel with any info I see that could prove useful all the way to deadline, so keep a look out for that

If you have any feedback or queries, just give me a shout on Discord

Good luck!