GW 499 J1 League Preview - Final (Patreon)

Updates

• SO5 analysis added

• Junker is back in training for Nagoya and could even make squad for tomorrows game

• Lopes is in full training and likely starts. Nagato is still out. No info on the CBs, Eduardo + Kamijima favs but Hatanaka also in contention

• Amano vs Nishimura hard to call. Amano fav based on form.

• Kashiwa manager has said he will decide last min on whether to start Hosoya and Sekine after there Olympics exploits

• For Tokyo Verdy - Morita is "not in perfect condition" and unlikely starts

• Brandon and Araki have decent chances to make squad for tomorrows game according the manager. He will decide on matchday if they can start

I will post anything major that comes up on Discord

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J League is back!!

After the summer break we have a full schedule of midweek games.

Also a very small gamweek and the J league boys have favourable chances to get into the prize mix. With a lot of contender leagues starting up again, the prize pools are much better, making classic also decent option

Fixtures

J1 Table

Lots of surprise results last GW. Machida and Gamba both lost meaning that there were no changes at the top with Machica maintaining their 5 points lead. Kobe will be frustrated in only getting a point vs Nagoya after conceding in injury time

Sapporo got their first win since May! They are playing much better and have also made a series of new singings. However they still have a mountain to climb and are 11 points from safety.

Shonan iand Kyoto both impressed again and picked up wins dragging Iwata into the bottom 3.

Main Points

• Chinen (Kashima), Usami (Gamba), Matsubara(Iwata), Tsunashima (Verdy), J.Suzuki (Shonan), Hirano (Cerezo) are all suspended.

• We have seen lots of transfers in the last couple of weeks! Best place to see these are here

• Main ones include Ohashi moving to Blackburn , Kawabe and Arslan joining

• Naganuma leaving Sagan to join Urawa

• Takamine moving to Kortijk from Kashiwa.

• Yuki Soma transferring from Nagoya to Machida

• Kojima (Niigata) back in full training and should start this GW

• The u23 Olympics team was knocked out in the quarter final stage. They have returning to light training as of Monday.

• The below are players who were involved:

  

• Uenaka (YFM), Yamama (Verdy), Suzuki (Iwata) were also called up

• If they can play this Wednesday will be case by case. There is some risk with them all and im hoping to get more concrete info before the deadline. As a general rule, im assuming they are out atm

• Gamba have just 2 loss in their last 12 games.

• Machida, Hiroshima and Kyoto have just 1 defeat in their last 6 games.

• Nagoya have picked up just 4 points from their last 6 games.

SO5 Analysis

Best xG - YFM (xG 2.1)

Best Clean sheet odds -Kashima (41.5% CS)

Best Stack - Kashima, YFM

On paper YFM have the best fixture at home to bottom side Sapporo. I think the odds are too favourable and dont fully consider 1) Sapporo performances have been improving last few games 2) They have a bunch of new signings and players coming back from injury 3) YFM are having a poor season and a new manager has coming with plenty of unknowns with the lineup. Saying that, YFM have also improved and will for once be well rested so its still a favourable fixtures.

Kashima are unbeaten at home and have a nice fixture against a struggling Sagan Tosu who have also seen a number of players transferred out. Shonan performances have been improving and I like their chances against a disjointed Fukuoka side and I expect a low scoring game.

Fernandes, Atsuki Ito have been in great form with plenty of scores >70.

Nago, Sekigawa, Yan Mateus, Savio, Tanaka, Lukian are amongst those with decent predicted scores this GW

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Kashima vs Sagan

Kashima

• Chinen is suspended. Big miss in midfield. New signing Misao likely comes in.

• Cavric is out injured, restricts option up front.

• Versitile players like Nakama can play multiple spots and has been favoured over Higuchi. Squad has been relatively stable this season

• 3rd in the table and undefeated at home.

Sagan

• 2nd bottom of the table.

• Lots of players leaving or linked to moves away. Kikuchi and Naganuma have transferred out. Yokohama and Tezuka are on the verge of leaving and unclear if can play this game.

• Jaja Silva has joined. Could even start if Yokohama out

• Kimura played in the olympics and his condition is unclear.

• Kiyotake has transferred to Sagan andanother option in AM

Verdy vs Hiroshima

Tokyo Verdy

• Fuki Yamada was with the u23s and a doubt.

• Tsunashima is suspended.

• Morita is in full training and should start here

• Lots of uncertainty about the forward setup. Manager is wanting more from Kimura . G. Yamada has done well

• Signed Matsumura from Antlers. Likely makes sub appearance first

Hiroshima

• Beat Fukuoka 1-0 and moved up to 5th.

• Ohashi has left to Blackburn. Mitusta likely play higher poisition

• Arslan inline to make debut in midfield after impressing in friendly game. Kawabe only just moved and unclear his match fitness.

• Sotiriou is an injury doubt and likely out.

Kawasaki vs Kobe

Kawasaki

• Having poor season, 14th in the table. Won last match

• Takai is a doubt after playing with the u23 Olympics side. Jesiel is injured and returned to Brazil. Lack of options mean Ominami and Sasaki likely CB pairing.

• Miura back in full training and likely starts as LB

• Oshima also in full training and could come in.

• Lineup has been unstable all season. However after a win, less rotation risk.

Kobe

• Drew last two games, tired performances.

• Sakai is out injured. Miyashiro and Yamaguchi are doubts

• A few options available at RB including Iino, Kikuchi. So far Honda and Hatsuse combo preferred.

• LW position unstable, Sasaki pushing for a start

Shonan vs Fukuoka

Shonan

• Back to back wins and now out of the relegation zone.

• Hiraoka. Onose and Abe, Hata all out injured. J.Suzuki suspended.

• Kamifukumoto has joined. Likely as backup imo

Fukuoka

• Lost last 3 games in a row

• Wellington back in full training and inline to start upfront.

• Douglas Grolli in full training, should play

• Zahedi has said hes struggling with the humidity, may be on bench again.

Niigata vs Iwata

Niigata

• Kojima has missed last 4 games. Back in ful training and in contention to start.

• Ota in full training. Hoshi also in training and another choice in midfield.

• Team rotates alot at CB and up front especially. Won last game so should see less risk

Iwata

• Lost to Kyoto and now in the relegation zone.

• Have signed CB Hassan and winger Croux. Both could feature here.

• Germain linked with a transfer to Blackburn. Atm still a starter

• Fans on msg board think Kawashima can return here. I will be checking in the morning for something concrete on this.

Kyoto vs Nagoya

Kyoto

• Performance and form improving. Just 1 loss in last 8 league games.

• Yamazaki has transferred to Cerezo and Ichimi also to a J2 side.

• Kawasaki was away with u23 olympics side, likely rested

• Yonemoto cant play due to contractual reasons

• Asada also confirmed injured out and out

• In decent form so likely keep to similar lineup than last game

Nagoya

• Drew 3-3 to Kobe last game. Struggling for consistency this season

• Soma made a big difference. Scoring and being a threat on the left hand side.

• Junker, Ono out injured. Nagai only in partial training

• Soma has transferred to Machida.

• Kikuchi has signed from Sagan, match fitness uncertain. Bench start most likely.

Gamba vs FC Tokyo

Gamba

• Surprise loss to Shonan last game. Remain 2nd and 5 points behinds

• Handa out injured. Matsuda likely to come in as RB. Kinoshita another option

• Usami out suspended. Jebali fav to come in

FC Tokyo

• Team unstable, lots of changes in players and formation.

• Araki and Brandon back in training since Monday. Unclear if can start. Brandon didnt play any mins so has better chance but still a risk atm

• Matsuki has transferred out.

• Trevisan and Kashif seen in training. Remain risks for this game.

Cerezo vs Machida

Cerezo Osaka

• Surprise loss last GW to Niigata

• Noborizato returned last match, rusty performance

• Nishio back from Olympics on Monday. Imo will be rested this game with Funaki and Toriumi continuing as CBs.

• Bueno pushing for a start over Uejo.

Machida

• Top of the table. Surprise loss in last game

• Oh Se Hun back from suspension. Fujio returned from Olympics and a doubt

• Sugioka and Soma have transferred and both available. Lots of options available, hard to know the current hierarchy. Soma if fit should be a starter imo. Sugioka im less sure with though can be a starter too, one to monitor.

Urawa vs Kashiwa

Urawa

• In general, having poor season given expectations as title contenders. Lost to Sapporo last game.

• Horibruten has missed lots of training with an illness. Is a doubt here

• Ohata also went to and played lots of mins at the Olympics. Could be rested

• Nakajima in full training and pushing for start. Gustafsson in full training however has struggled in the humid conditions.

• Lots of options available including new signings such as Nita. Hard to predict with any confidence esp with the team playing poorly. Eg Santana is out of favour and is a risk again despite scoring last game

Kashiwa

• Lost narrowly to Kawasaki last game.

•  Hosoya and Sekine played alot of mins at the Olympics and likely rested

• Inukai returned last game and the Koga + Inukai partnership is a big boost for the side.

• Kakita likely gets another start upfront.

• Takamine has transferred out to the Jupiler league.

YFM vs Sapporo

YFM

• Two wins on the bounce as side look to stabilize a v poor season.

• Iikura fav to continue in nets for now. Got a clean sheet and played well. Popp I do expect to be given a chance, hard to predict when (in general he suits the YFM style of passing quick from the back)

• Hatanaka played 45 mins in a recent friendly. Still a risk and Eduardo + Kamijima my favs to start

• Nagato back in light training, unlikely to play this games.

• Lopes only returned to Japan recently after going to Brazil for personal reasons. Should be fine but waiting for training notes to confirm

Sapporo

• Bottom of table. Got a win vs Urawa last game. Performances improving.

• Lots of players returning to full fitness. Miyazawa and Kondo also in full training.

• Have signed a few players. At the moment unclear if able to start. After last games performance I expect similar lineup .

• Without a clean sheet in 13 games.

Finish

I hope you found this useful!

Im expecting some team news and will post again in the morning (GMT). Will also do SO5 data analysis and post in the final report. Also will post info here

In general, this is a good GW to use J league players in both contender and all star

If you have any questions, spot any mistakes here, just give me shout!