GW 489 J1 League Preview (Patreon)

Intro

The GW deadline is today at 3pm CET! Sorare schedule has temporarily changed to align with the Euro 2024 tournament that is ongoing.

The upcoming game week is GW5 and it includes 7 J1 league games tomorrow AND a midweek game between Sagan Tosu and YFM

Sagan will have a double game week with the top scorers for players over both games being scored.

J1 Table

Not much change at the top. The top 4 played each other and both game ended 0-0! Dull stuff but to be expected at this stage of the season.

Sapporo lost again. Thats 6 losses in a row and they are looking increasingly doomed. Kyoto conceeded late to a draw 2-2 against Kashiwa. Shonan also picked up a point with things very tight at the bottom.

YFM rotated and lost to a well drilled Fukuoka side who have won 4 of their last 5 games and again doing excellently for their relatively low budget.

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

Main Points

• Yuma Suzuki (Kashima) and Uchida (Nagoya) are all suspended

• Scholz, Sakai and Iwao (Urawa) are all transferring out and unavailable

• For Kyoto - injuries for Yamazaki (Ankle), (Toyokawa (unclear, muscle issue/fatigue?), Hirato (calf muscle). Also confirmed that Asada has an ACL injury and out for 6-8 months.

• For Iwata - Morioka (cramp imo). Should be available.

• For Urawa - Maeda (Ankle). Sekine injured and assumed out. Solbakken went off at half time, not sure if tactical or also injury.

• Theres some general rotation risk due to fatigue accumulation from 3 games inside a week in humid conditions. Teams outside Sagan have a week break after this game so that hopefully means regular players can go one more time then rest!

• Gamba are undefeated in their last 9 games including 7 wins

• Kashima are undefeated in their last 11 league games including 7 wins.

• Kashiwa are winless in their last 6 games

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Cerezo vs Nagoya

Cerezo

• Beat Sagan Tosu 1-0. Move up to 7th though inconsistent season.

• Noborizato is out injured. Maikuma has left so Okuda has been playing at RB

• Bueno assumed injured. Uejo has played last two games

• Side has been relatively stable. Players like Shabyama, Tameda and Croux offer options

• Lots of noise about Kagawa leaving the club. One to monitor for now.

Nagoya

• In bad form, winless in 5 league games.

• Junker out injured. Uchida suspended this game.

• Yonemoto has transferred on loan to Kyoto.

• Yamanaka in light training, risk for this game. Kubo can play both wings.

• Struggling in attack. Just 1 goal in last 4 games.

Gamba vs Machida

Gamba

• Unbeaten in 10 games with 8 wins and 2 draws

• Drew 0-0 with Kashima in tough game.

• Yamada assumed injured, went off with problem on wkend.

• Dawhan vs Lavi as always hard to call. Alano getting increased mins and offers further options and is also a set piece taker.

Machida

• Top of the table. Drawn last two games 0-0

• Duke, Oh Se Hun, Na Sang Ho remain injured/assumed injured

• Oh Se Hun in particular a big miss as they use him as a target man. No info yet on him

• Sento and Shibato have been changing spots lots recently

FC Tokyo vs Fukuoka

FC Tokyo

• Back to back wins. Unbeaten in 4 games.

• Trevisan missed last game, unclear situation. Kimoto went off with an injury, not sure if it was fatigue or something else tbh

• Harakawa started midweek, did well. Koizumi could come in but not a cert.

• Have been playing with different strategies including not starting Diego. Players like Nakagawa also pushing for a start.

Fukuoka

• Unbeaten in 5 games. Beat YFM 2-1 on Wednesday. Up to 8th in the league.

• Nara confirmed out for 10-12 months.

• Rest of team pretty stable

Urawa vs Iwata

Urawa

• Having poor season given expectations as title contenders

• Beat Nagoya 1-0 on Wednesday.

• Scholz, Iwao and Sakai on brink of transfers out and unavailable.

• Solbakken went off at half time, could be injury. Maeda and Sekine also went off with injuries on Wednesday.

• Running out of players to use, uncertainty over Nakajima and Okubo too

• Watanabe moved to mid with Ohata at LB. Watanabe is naturally a mid so hopefully this continues - did well.

Iwata

• Beat Tokyo Verdy 3-0 on Wednesday

• Graca likely out with an injury. Morioka went off with cramp on Wednesday, should be fine imo

• Germain back from injury and improving in terms of his match sharpness.

Shonan vs Kyoto

Shonan

• 3rd bottom of the table. Drew 1-1 with Kawasaki after a wonder goal from Tanaka

• Without a clean sheet in 8 games

• Onose went off with an injury in first half. Hata natural replacement.

• Fukuda likely starts up top.

• This game involves 2nd bottom vs 3rd bottom

Kyoto

• Drew 2-2 against Kashiwa on Wednesday.

• Misao, Toyokawa and Yamasaki all went off injured and are doubts, lots of rotation/change in setup risk eg can also play 3 at the back.

• Asada also confirmed injured out and out

Kobe vs Kashima

• Drew 0-0 with Machida on Wednesday

• Osako was benched, assume rested. However, is having poor season compared to last campaign

• Ogihara wasnt in squad midweek, some concern around his condition.

• Yamakawa expected to come back after suspension. Kikuchi did well but Thuler and Yamakawa very much the trusted duo.

• Without a clean sheet against Kashima in their last 6 meetings.

Kashima

• Drew 0-0 with Machida on Wednesday. Drawn last 3 games.

• Second in table and without a loss in 11 games.

• Yuma Suzuki out suspended. Cavric the natural replacement.

• Sano is reported to be on the verge of a transfer. Atm assuming hes ok to play though some risk there

Sagan vs Kashiwa

Sagan

• Lost a narrow game again Cerezo.

• Sagan are 4th bottom, just 1 point above the relegation zone.

• Some risk of change in mid and attack esp considering they play again on Wednesday vs YFM

Kashiwa

• Stopped a losing run with a last min goal to draw 2-2 on Wednesday.

• Dominated the game and playing better than results show imo

• Hosoya got only his second goal of the domestic season. Hopefully boosts his confidence.

• Matsumoto situation is uncertain. Had been seen in light training a while ago but assumed out.

YFM vs Sagan

• This game is on Wednesday night.

• Check lineup YFM play today to see who plays. I expect YFM to ROTATE for this game as they play a harder game against Gamba Osaka next weekend

• Very hard to use YFM players with any confidence

SO5 Analysis

Best xG - Urawa (1.65 xG),

Best CS - Urawa (41% CS), FC Tokyo (40% CS)

Best Stack - Cerezo, Urawa

The bookies see Urawa as having the best fixture. However, with the departures of key players like Scholz and Sakai alongside a few injuries and recent poor performances im not sure I agree with the odds! However I do like Sato (Scholz replacement for now) and at home this should be a good fixture for them even if not as these odds

FC Tokyo have had back to back clean sheets and against Fukuoka we could see a very low scoring game with a decent chance of a clean sheet for both teams.

Nagoya are struggling in attack and I also like Cerezo for this game.

Sagan Tosu also have a double game week so players who can score well like Ryan and Kawahara have more upside than usual

Finish

Hope you found this useful!

I will post anything major that drops onto Discord before the deadline! Good luck