GW 487 J1 League Preview - (Patreon)

Intro

We have some midweek action in the J league!

Reminder that the GW schedule has changed, so the deadline is Sunday at 3pm CET.

Full schedule is below:

We had games yesterday and the YFM vs Sapporo game is on now so need to keep an eye on that.

All teams will be playing 3 games inside 7-8 days so there is increased general rotation risk. This will vary by team and opposition. Will be hard to predict though ill give my take on the situation.

I will give general info we have eg suspensions and injury news from Saturday games.

Wont have time to give notes so will do predicted lineups only. Confidence levels on these lineups like any midweek will be low!

J1 Table

Machida and Antlers could only draw keeping the situation unchanged at the top. Gamba beat Kobe in the Kansai derby to move level with Antlers.

Sagan pulled off a big win against fellow strugglers Kyoto to move out of the relegation zone. Shonan lost again narrowly despite have the better chances against FC Tokyo

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

Main Points

• Trevisan (FC Tokyo), Miki (Verdy), Konno (Avispa), Tachibanada (Kawaski), Mitsuta (Hiroshima) all return from suspension and available.

• For Kawasaki, Wakizaka and Gomis were missing. Were in training the day before the game so assumed late injury/sickness and also out for midweek. Kobayashii went off with cramp/not fully fit

• Yamada (Gamba) legit injury and assumed out for midweek

• Mochizuki (Machida) went off with ankle knock, assumed out

• Iwao (Urawa) and Suzuki (Antlers) was cramp

• Tanaka (Cerezo) looked like he was struggling at the end of the game and was subbed off - risk

• Elber returned from the bench for YFM. In the running to start midweek imo (though not a given ofc!)

• Gamba have tough games vs Kashima then against Machida on the weekend. Are the form team with 5 straight wins

• Kashiwa have lost their last 4 games and are heading down the league.

• Sapporo remain in horrendous form and have lost 5 of their last 6 games

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Fukuoka vs YFM

Fukuoka

YFM

• YFM are currently playing. Will try to do lineup later/after game.

• Elber is on the bench.

• Nishimura cant play til the transfer window opens in July

• Nagato is injured and can assumed out. No news on Hatanaka, risk.

• YFM have played the most games. I expect general rotation coming up.

Kawasaki vs Shonan

Shonan

Cerezo vs Sagan

Sagan

Kyoto vs Kashiwa

• I expect changes from last game. Rotation risk HIGH

Kashiwa

FC Tokyo vs Sapporo

Sapporo

• Sapporo are currently playing. Will try to do prediction later

• Bottom of table and in terrible form.

Nagoya vs Urawa

Urawa

• Scholz looked fatigued/took a knock. Some risk there, hard to know.

• Takeda likely rewarded for his 2 goals with a start

• Iwao was just cramp imo - some risk there though.

Kashima vs Gamba

• Suzuki went off with cramp imo. Some risk/hard to know. I personally will use him I think as hes a trooper but just my gut feeling over anything!

• Sano linked to a transfer away to Bundesliga. Often players allowed to travel to negotiate deal. So some risk here. Prob is fine though

Gamba

Hiroshima vs Niigata

• Mitsuta is available after suspension. Im really unsure who starts in the CM role that Kawamura used to play.

• Last game, manager changed things at half time as it was too attacking.

• Players complaining of fatigue

Niigata

Iwata vs Tokyo Verdy

• Hirakawa and Graca subbed at half time. Smells of an injury but may well have been tactical.

Tokyo Verdy

• Morita assumed out as hasnt been seen in training yet

• Miki returns from suspension

Kobe vs Machida

• After a defeat like the last game, manager has rotated players around.

• Yamakawa is suspended. Honda fav to start

Machida

• Oh Se Hun not in squad again. Likely an undisclosed injury/illness. Again a big risk

• Mochizuki went off with an ankle injury last game. Suzuki option to replace

SO5 Analysis

Best xG - Hiroshima (2.1 xG)

Best CS - Cerezo (40% CS)

Best Stack - Hiroshima, Cerezo

This GW we can expect to see rotation so will need more luck than normal with our lineups. I have given my best take of lineups though my confidence levels are generally low as simply not much info available yet.

On paper, Hiroshima have the best fixture for both goals and CS. Cerezo also have a very good fixture against Sagan Tosu. Any team playing Sapporo is also a decent bet at the moment, so FC Tokyo should be good value even though there lineup changes a lot!

Games like Kobe vs Machida involve 1st vs 4th and will be a tight contest with no clear fav. Equally Kashima vs Gamba involves two of the form teams in the league and difficult to know which way it goes esp as Kashima are unbeaten at home this season.

In contender, again mainly J and K league will be open .K league games will similar to J league have loads of rotation risk. Though its v hard to predict lineups, its the same for everyone and hopefully theres some edge/hints here. I also dont expect it to be as competitive as when europe/all league are open

Finish

Due to the quick turnover between games, this preview is very different to normal. Hopefully its helpful and though I am busy with family stuff tonight, will try to update the YFM and Sapporo lineups on Discord.

Any questions, do let me know!