GW 486 J1 League Preview - FINAL (Patreon)

Intro

As you may know, the Sorare GW schedule has temporarily changed to align with the Euro 2024 tournament that is ongoing.

The schedule is below:

The upcoming game week is GW2 on the above and its deadline is tomorrow at 3pm CET.

The upcoming GW covers the wkend J1 league games. However it also means we wont get team news that we would normally from Thursday and Friday.

I will be doing the lineup predictions tomorrow (Wednesday) morning and they will be out around 6am CET.

Note we have the YFM vs Hiroshima games tomorrow just before the deadline & both teams will play again at the wkend so the lineups/injuries in that game will effect things.

J1 Table

Machida pulled off a great win away to YFM to showcase again their title winning credentials. Antlers put in a rare weak performance and drew against Niigata. Gamba continued their excellent form and season with Usami again in sparkling form in their home win.

Sapporo lost in the 6 pointer against Kyoto. Sapporo have lost 4 on the bounce and have injuries mounting up inside their squad thats devoid of any confidence. Sanga lost again and another relegation battle looks likely this season.

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

Main Points

• Trevisan (FC Tokyo), Miki (Verdy), Konno (Avispa), Tachibanada (Kawaski) are all suspended

• Scholz (Urawa), and Yamazaki (Sagan) return from suspension

• Thuler (Kobe) went off with a hamstring tweak and is at risk. Limited info yet.

• Most u23 guys who return from int duty played last wkend. Guys like Hosoya, Matsuki and Araki will be fully fit and in line to start.

• Situation with Matsumoto (Kashiwa) unclear. Sasaki started last game but is known for his errors and likely just a temp starter.

• YFM and Hiroshima play tomorrow (Wednesday) and then again on the weekend. If possible, keep an eye on the game tomorrow for injuries. Will be hard to predict their wkend lineups

• We do know Kawamura has left Hiroshima for a medical in europe. Need to see who plays tomorrow in midfield in place of him etc.

• Germain returned from injury to get some minutes on the pitch for Iwata. He is their top scorer with 11 goals in 13 games.

• These injuries confirmed by clubs in the last few days - Erison (Kawasaki), Hiraoka (Shonan), Gun Hee and Supachok (Sapporo)

• Gamba also have won 6 of their last 7 games including winning 4 games on the bounce.

• Kashima are undefeated in their last 9 league games including 7 wins.

• Kashiwa and Sagan Tosu have lost their last 3 league games in a row

• Sapporo have lost their last 4 games in a row.

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Machida vs Fukuoka

Machida

• Top of the table. Excellent win YFM last game

• Lots of injuries - Na Sang Ho, Jang Min Gyu and Duke all out.

• Oh Se Hun not in squad last game. No known injury, feeling is he was rested

• Erik now back to full fitness and started last game. Should continue imo but it will change for tactical reasons too.

• Mochizuki did start last game and did well. I expect him also to continue though again this spot varies depeding on opposition.

• Dresevic and Shoji to continue as CBs. Shoji in particular doing well this season and looking like his old self.

Fukuoka

• 3 wins in a row and 7th in the table. Konno is suspended this game

• Miya was excellent last game. Went off with cramps and said hes fine.

• Kitajima and Kanamori offer options to replace the suspended Konno

• Zahedi only started on the bench last game. I reckon he starts here

• Keeper Nagaishii is out for 3 months meaning Murakami is relatively safe in nets....for now

Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya

• Lost 4-1 to Hiroshima on wkend.

• Miki is suspended for the upcoming game

• Miyahara and Tsunashima both seen in training early this week along with Yamada. However Morita hasnt been able to train yet and assumed out.

• Taniguchi started last game and fine to start.

• May revert to 4 at the back depending on play conditions.

Nagoya

• Drew 1-1 with Shonan at the weekend.

• Junker, Ono, Kawamura and Izumi all out injured.

• Kennedy also wasnt fit enough for last game with a minor injury. Unclear if will be ready for upcoming wkend game.

Niigata vs Kawasaki

Niigata

• Decent performance again Antlers in 1-1 draw. Komi scoring and remains in solid form.

• Takagi, Miyomoto and Hoshi confirmed out injured.

• Ono, Ota, Nagakura are alll concerns. Hasegawa got some mins from bench last game. Ono seen in full training.

•  Lots of options up front/mid depending on fitness. In general lots of injury problems inside squad

• Horigome is an option at LB. Has been vocal this week though again im not sure if fit to start.

Kawasaki

• Flat performance in 1-0 defeat to Kobe. 14th in table and having very poor season.

• Tachibanada is suspended. Erison confirmed out with injury

• Seko most likely replacement for Tachibanada. Ze Ricardo and Yamamoto are other options.

• Lineup has been unstable esp after a defeat. Could see formation changes and surprises again! Eg Kurumaya has been close to fitness for a while or Segawa at RB with Ominami as CB etc.

Gamba vs Kobe

Gamba

• Unbeaten in 7 games with 6 wins and a draw. Up to third

• Alano and Miura out with injuries

• Yamada started over Sakamoto last game. Yamada and Yamashita both mentioned slight injuries on their foots post game. Should start but atm slight risks.

• Rest of side pretty stable

• This is a local derby.

Kobe

• Solid win again Kawasaki on the wkend. First win in 4 games.

• Thuler went off with a hamstring issue last game and is a doubt. Honda most likely to replace with Kikuchi another option

• Lots of competition in LW eg Yuruki vs Sasaki/Patric. Sasaki is slight fav.

• Miyashiro is also prone to start from the bench and come on around the 60 min mark. Hard to predict with confidence. Rotation risk with Ide.

• Ideguchi is playing his old club

Iwata vs Cerezo

Iwata

• Drew to Tokyo on wkend.

• Germain returned from injury to play 30mins (with head guard on). Looked a bit rusty.

• Without a win in 4 games and 16th in the table.

Cerezo

• Impressive win vs Urawa with 2 wondergoals from Fernandes and Okuda respecitively.

• Up to 6th in the table. Unbeaten in 4 games though have inconsistent season.

• Noborizato is out injured. Maikuma has left for contract talks in europe and out

• Bueno had poor first half and was subbed off. Tactically could bring in a mid like Kagawa/Shibayama or Uejo

Shonan vs FC Tokyo

Shonan

• 4th  bottom of the table.Unlucky not to get the win vs Nagoya last game.

• Min Tae, Hata and Hiraoka are out injured.

• Tachi and Onose returned and played last game.

• Played like Barada, Sugioka, Oiwa are options that can come in. At the moment similar side to last wk most likely - was a solid performance.

FC Tokyo

• Drew with Iwata 1-1. 8th in the table and inconsistent season.

• Kimoto and Shirai out with injuries. Kashif an injury risk

• Trevisan is suspended. Lack of CBs and unclear if Doi is fit to play. Oka could make his first start. Changing to 3 at the back also an option.

• Matsuki and Araki were on the bench last game. Higher chance one or both start this one.

• Have been playing with different strategies including not starting Diego. Anzai has started a string of games and can play multiple positions

Kashiwa vs Hiroshima

Kashiwa

• Lost last 3 games including loss to Gamba on the wkend.

• Hosoya should start after resting/coming off from bench after u23 duty

• Takamine is back and should start. Inukai is out injured so Tatsuta likely continues

• Limited info on Matsumoto. Sasaki likely to continue if Matsumoto not fit

Hiroshima

• Hiroshima play tonight. Keep an eye on their lineup

• Sho Sasaki will be available for this wkend after suspension

• Unclear who will play in midfield in place of Kawamura. Could see Shiotani move to DCM like he has a few games already and Arai/Higashi back in defense.

• Sotiriou in decent form and looking the best he has since moving to Hiroshima.

• Mitsuta still on the fringes. Again need to monitor, he can be an option as AM or RM too.

Sagan Tosu vs Kyoto

Sagan

• Lost last 3 league games. Third bottom of the table.

• Maruhashi was poor and subbed last game. Risk of being dropped

• After another poor performance in the 2-0 loss against Fukuoka, could see changed

• This game involves 2 of the bottom 3 clubs.

Kyoto

• Big win in their 6 pointer vs Sapporo.

• Form improving, unbeaten in 4 games

• Side should remain unchanged. Kyo Sato slight injury doubt.

Urawa vs Kashima

Urawa

• Having poor season given expectations as title contenders

• Ito picked up hamstring injury. In light training but v unlikely for this game

• Gustafson knee injury during int training wasnt significant, expected to return to training today but unlikely to feature yet

• Sekine in full training and in contention to start. Solkbakken also seen in training on Monday.

• Watanabe in light training on Monday. Unclear if it was a precaution or if anything more serious

• Scholz returns from suspension and is available to start.

• Linssen scored last game and has spoken bullisly about wanting to feature more. Still hard to know if he can start.

• Havent had a clean sheet vs Cerezo in their last 6 games.

Kashima

• Drew 1-1 with Niigata. Had poor first half in particular.

• Are unbeaten in 9 league games. 2nd in the league.

• Fujii scored last game after coming in as sub, incontention to start. Cavric also an option over Morooka.

• Last 4 meetings between the sides have ended in draws.

Sapporo vs YFM

• Bottom of table. 4 losses in a row. Having very poor season

• Injuries piling up. Aoki, Asano, Miyazawa, Suga, Gun Hee, Supachok all injured

• Limited options available inside squad. No training news available yet.

• Without a clean sheet in 7 games. In general a team to avoid, have conceeded the most goals this season.

YFM

• Play against Hiroshima tonight. Keep an eye out on lineup and condition of players esp guys like Elber

SO5 Analysis

Best xG - YFM (1.77xG)

Best CS - Machida (52% CS), Kobe (40%CS)

Best Stack - Hiroshima, Cerezo

YFM have a very appealing game against bottom side Sapporo. However, YFM are also in poor form and crucially play tomorrow. They have fixture congestion so though the fixture is good, picking who starts is v difficult esp before we even know how they lineup tomorrow!

Machida looked very strong again and have a good fixture to target. I was also impressed by Cerezo and like their chances against Iwata.

Gamba vs Kobe is a local derby and very hard to predict. I expect a low scoring game and even a 0-0 is a possibility.

In contender, only J and K league will be open. There are 6 K league games on Saturday and Sunday. This means, though the deadline hinders getting some team news, it will not be as competitive as usual

Finish

Hope you found this useful!

I will post anything major that drops onto Discord before the deadline. Theres still 3 days til the games so there will be some unknowns

Also have the below game coming up which counts for the ongoing GW:

 Taiki Watanabe and Uenaka (both YFM) are 1 yellow card away from an automatic suspension

Also note that we have midweek games coming up followed by games next weekend. This fixture congestion (3 games in 7 days) means general rotation risk increases!

In general, rotation will be more of a risk for midweek but it will vary depending on fixtures/squad condition. I will analyse this and post about it in the next preview.

Any question or feedback, give me a shout. Good luck!