GW 479 J1 League Predicted Lineups - FINAL (Patreon)

Intro

We have 9 J1 league games plus the second leg of the ACL Final to get our teeth into this weekend!

Its also the last GW in the J league special!

League Table

Machida stretched their lead at the top after a 5-0 demolition of Verdy. Kashima Antlers sneaked out a 1-0 win against Kobe thanks to a late goal from Nono. Gamba and Nagoya jumped up places after respective wins.

Hiroshima and Cerezo ended their recent poor form with away wins. Hiroshima rotated and were far too strong for a woeful Kyoto side who remain bottom. Sapporo lost their 3rd game in the their last 4 and are second bottom and having another struggling campaign.

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

Main Points

• Diego (Kashiwa), Api (Kyoto), Zahedi (Fukuoka), Harada (Sagan) , Hayashi (Tokyo Verdy), Harakawa (FC Tokyo) and Hubner (Cerezo) are suspended

• Shibato (Machida) cant play due to contractual reasons

• Go Hatano returns from suspension. Very hard to call who starts for FC Tokyo

• Some teams played in the league cup on Wednesday though most rotated significantly.

• YFM play in the ACL final second leg. They lead 2-1 and their strongest lineup is expected. This game can't be used in Contender region.

• Gustafson (Urawa) in full training but wasnt in squad last game. Also wasnt in squad for league cup midweek - one im monitoring.

• Kashima are in form and relatively stable team. Chinen picked up a knee knock last week and though has been seen in training, is a doubt.

• Kawasaki remain very unstable. After another defeat we could see changes again. Segawa is out with a concussion and JSR seen in training and could come in. Yuki Yamamoto also in the running for a return.

• Hiroshima changed things up last week including Mitsuta, Kato and Shiotani on the bench. All remain risks in the short term. MJ picked up a late injury and assumed out.

• Antlers are the form team having won 5 of their last 6

• Kyoto have lost 5 games in a row and managers position is at risk

• Iwata havent kept a clean sheet in their last 5 and are also without a win in those games.

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Iwata vs Shonan

Iwata

• In poor form, without a win in 5

• Germain (top scorer in league) out til August. Iwata trying different options with Yamada favoured.

• Kaneko could be rewarded for scoring last game with a start.

• Kawashima returned to nets last game and put in a solid performance.

Shonan

• Beat Niigata 2-1 thanks to two goals from Lukian

• Striker Fukuda is again available after suspension

• Lukian grandmother passed away recently. Some risk he may return to Brazil for funeral/not be in the right mindset to start

Sapporo vs Kashima

Sapporo

• Lost to a last min goal vs Kashiwa. Again played well in big chunks of the game and unlucky to lose.

• Asano is out injured. Kin Gun Hee started up top last game.

• Aoki went off with an injury. If out likely see Suga move to LWB.

• Players like Kobyashii can come in if managers opts for false 9

• Won in the league cup on Wednesday with heavily rotated side.

Kashima

• Highly impressive win vs Kobe. Now joint second

• Chinen went off with a knee injury. Seen in training with knee taped, unclear his fitness.

• Has been in great form and would be a big loss in their midfield

• Shibasaki got some mins from the bench in the league cup loss to Machida.

• Rest of team is stable.

Niigata vs Fukuoka

Niigata

• Lost to Shonan in a tight contest last week

• Won on pens with a rotated side in league cup midweek.

• Takagi and Miyomoto confirmed out injured.

• Hoshi injured in league cup, assumed out.

• Fitgerald also a concern. Deng and Chiba most likely CB pairing atm

• Lots of options up front/mid depending on fitness. In general lots of injury problems inside squad

Fukuoka

• Lost back to back game. Without a cleansheet in 4 games

• Murakami not doing great however situation with Nagaishii unclear. Fans suspect an undisclosed injury/illness

• Yuzawa an injury concern

• Striker Zahedi suspended leaving Wellington as likely striker

• Were knocked out of the league cup midweek

Kawasaki vs Kashiwa

Kawasaki

• Lost 3-1 to Gamba last week. Better performance overall however lots of issues

•  Segawa has concussion and out. Sasaki training separately. Marchino training fine.

• If Sasaki out then should see Sai return to RB.

• Yuki Yamamoto back in full training. JSR also seen in training, unclear his condition. Kamifukumoto position at threat

• Manager has been changing things alot after defeats so generally unstable lineup.

• In training game Tono was seen on LW with Yuki Yamamoto as LCM

• Unbeaten against Kashiwa in their last 12 meetings.

Kashiwa

• Back to back last min winners has seen Kashiwa jump to midtable.

• Diego is out suspended. Mitsumura fav to come in

• A few options in mid with Shimamura/Shirai and Toshima fighting for spots

• Takamine remains injured and out

Kobe vs Verdy

Kobe

• Lost to Kashima last week. Struggled to create chances in rare flat performance

• Rotated but disappointingly lost to J3 side in league cup

• Hatsuse played 120mins in the cup. Honda fav to be starting LB. Hard to call as always.

• Lots of competition in LW eg Yuruki vs Sasaki/Patric. Ide has also been doing well including a goal in the league cup

•  Outside Saito, full squad available to pick from.

Tokyo Verdy

• Lost for first time in 12 games in 5-0 loss to Machida

• Hayashi suspended after red in league cup.

• Manager has said that they are being careful with Taniguchi and want him to be 100% fit before he returns to the lineup.

• Inami played the full 90 mins in the cup so I have Tsunashima as fav to continue in the midfield

Cerezo vs Hiroshima

Cerezo

• Beat Fukuoka 3-0 in an impressive display to halt a poor run of form.

• Noborizato is out injured. Maikuma is returning to fitness and played a half in the cup on Wednesday. In contention to start here if fully fit.

• Hubner is suspended after picking up a red card

• Kagawa was an unused sub in the cup game, likely not fully fit yet.

Hiroshima

• First win in 6 with a 5-0 demolition of Kyoto. Arai got a hat trick

• Very hard lineup to predict. Lots of options and knock on effects.

• Shiotani, Mitsuta and Kato roles all very hard to know with confidence.

• Arai after his hat trick will surely be rewarded. Mitsuta fitness is slight concern. The manager in general hasnt trusted Notsuda (took him off at half time last week for example)

• Shiotani could even play in DCM as he did in the first half of the cup

• Sotiriou is well liked and trusted despite my own reservations with him

• Marcos Junior picked up a late injury last week. Is assumed out with info at hand.

• Unbeaten against Cerezo in their last 6 games.

Nagoya vs Kyoto

• Back to back wins. Key players such as Junker and Yamagishi returning from injuries

• Junker should start here, was taken off early in midweek cup game. Likely too early for Yamagishi to start.

• Lots of options including Masui, Nagai also competing for shadow striker role.

Kyoto

• 5 losses in a row. Low in confidence.

• Api suspended for his second game. Could see change in formation to 3 at the back.

• Big turnover risk, mainly due to poor form. A team to avoid in general/use in only least important lineups.

FC Tokyo vs Gamba

• Drew 1-1 vs YFM last week. Changed setup with Diego benched.

• Hatano returns from suspension. V hard to predict who starts. Brandon was the hero in pen shootout in the cup win.

•  Endo got some mins and challenging for a start

• Diego, Nagatomo, Kimoto and Nakagawa all didnt travel for the cup game and hint is this was intentional so they can start here.

• Harakawa is suspended after his red card in the cup yesterday

Gamba

• Unbeaten in 4 games with 3 wins and a draw.

• Beat Kawasaki 3-1 with Usami in form.

• Matsuda and Yamada back in training. This game likely too soon

• Alano out with an injury.

Urawa vs Machida

Urawa

• Unbeaten in 4 games in the league. Knocked out of the league cup to J2 side on Wednesday.

• .Gustafsson condition unclear, in full training but was out of the squad last week. My hunch is hes being saved for this game but have to wait on more news.

• Sakai also back and played in the cup. Ishihara has done fine in this spot so this also unclear atm.

Machida

• Top of the table and in excellent form. 4 wins in their last 5 games.

• Dresevic played in cup win vs Antlers on Wednesday. Unclear who starts this game with 3 very solid CBs to choose from.

• Lots of options upfront. Erik scored last week. Oh Se Hun went off with knock last week, waiting on info

• Shibato cant play against his parent club

ACL Final

Al-Ain vs YFM

YFM

• Take a 2-1 lead into the 2nd leg

• Elber, Eduardo, Hatanaka all seen in training. Unclear their fitness levels.

• Kamijima also there and fine. At the moment, picking 2 from the 3 very difficult!

• Tae Hee Nam not seen. A big doubt.

• Options in midfield include Kida/Watanabe/Sakakibara/Uenaka. My hunch is they go with experience and Uenaka as the attacking option

• YFM are underdogs for this game and im expecting a very difficult and nervy game. Personally I will be using in a punty team

SO5 Analysis

Best xG - Kobe (1.58 xG, Kashima xG 1.43)

Best CS - Kobe (50% CS, Nagoya 43% CS)

Best Stack - Kobe

On paper Kobe have a very decent home fixture against Verdy. Its a decent game to target though Kobe performance last week is a slight concern and after their league cup defeat, could see the manager spring some surprises in his lineup selection

I really like Nagoyas fixture against Kyoto. Kyoto team are playing like strangers at the moment and the team have conceeded 8 without scoring in the last 2 games. Nagoya have players returning to fitness including Junker who bagged a hat-trick recently. I can see them winning and getting a clean sheet here.

Kashima have been in tremendous form and better still have a relatively stable team. If Chinen is indeed out this would be a significant blow to them. Players like Nago, Suzuki have been doing great and look good here

Urawa vs Machida should be a very tight contest. The away side have struggled somewhat against the "bigger" teams with losses to Hiroshima and Kobe already this season.

This is the last GW of the J league special. Captain choice is key and if playing multiple teams can utilise different strategies. Eg Play a Kashima stack in one team and a Sapporo team in another for variance (ofc depends on what cards you have etc!)

Contender is also open and J league is competitive esp with some Europe leagues like Bundesliga 2 and Scottish Prem having finished

Finish

Hope you found this useful!

The GW after this one we have 2 J league fixtures and Contender is open. This is a small GW with not so many matches happening and can be particularly good to target, in particular inseason.

We can build on SD to see what/if any pieces we are missing. YFM returning from ACL final will v likely play a rotated side and/or be pretty drained!

In the coming weeks I will do some analysis on current situation of Sorare and what to target. My hunch is for example u23s have potential now that europe is near ending

 Any questions, just give me a shout! I will post anything major that comes out all the way to deadline on Discord

Good Luck!