GW 475 J1 League Predicted Lineups - DRAFT (Patreon)

Intro

9 J league games and also the final of the ACL coming up this wkend!

League Table

Machida remain top of the table with another win. Current champs Kobe keep up the pressure with a narrow win against Niigata

Tokyo keep up their great form and jump up to 4th. Hiroshima were hit by their first loss of the season and drop down to 6th.

Sapporo are bottom after another loss despite an improvement in general play. Sagan lost against fellow strugglers Shonan and are second bottom and having another poor season.

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

Main Points

• Teams all played on Monday where we saw loads of rotation. Strongest available X11 expected this GW where possible

• U23 players such as Hosoya, Sekine, Matsuki etc are available for selection. The only player I have concern about is Arkai who had concussion

• Hayashi and Someno of Tokyo Verdy cant play for contractual reasons

• Koizumi (FC Tokyo), Erison (Kawasaki), Graca (Iwata), Harada (Sagan) are all suspended

• Teams will play 3 games inside 8 games. Expect rotation in the middle and last games which are all in the J League special (will concentrate on this is separate post)

• Kobe and Antlers both have 4 wins in last 5 games and in excellent form.

• Sapporo havent won in their last 5 though have drawn 4. Kyoto have had a miserable season and lost 4 of their last 5 games.

• Sapporo are improving in their playstyle whereas Kyoto look v vulnerable at the back and unstable lineup in general which is v hard to predict with confidence

• YFM play in the ACL and their cards cant be used in contender

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Niigata vs Urawa

Niigata

• Only 1 win in last 8 games. Rotated in loss to Kobe on Monday.

• Deng back in full training and in contention. Endo did well last game. Fitzgerald has played alot of mins recently

• Takagi injured last game, looked bad and assumed out.

• Miyamoto situation unclear, not seen in training yet. Komi was out with sickness, seen in training

• Hayakawa available again after suspension

• In general, confidence with prediction low. Lots of options and combos available up top and manager likes to use bench too.

Key SO5 Players - Kojima, Fujiwara, Akiyama

Set Piece Takers - Takagi, Hasegawa

Urawa

• Beat YFM in a much improved performance. Ito with with both goals

• Iwao back in full training. In contention to start but has said he doesnt want to rush things

• Sakai in light training and increasing training levels. Still only partially joining and similar to Iwao with the fixture coming up, indication is they dont want to rush things.

• Ishihara and Scholz in recovery training on Wednesday - tbc if just precaution which looks the case atm.

• Matsuo, Sekine and Solkbakken still not ready after injuries

• Unbeaten in their last 7 meetings with Niigata

Key SO5 Players -Gustafson, Ito, Hoibraten

Set Piece Takers - Gustafson,

Kyoto vs Fukuoka

Kyoto

• Rotated heavily in loss to Machida. Just 1 win in last 6 and winless at home this season.

• Kawasaki started on return from u23 duty

• CB Suzuki returned from injury recently again vanished last week

• No known injuries. Toyokawa wasnt in squad last game, waiting for info. Even if available - lots of fws options and change in formation cant be ruled out.

Fukuoka

• 6 games unbeaten (includes 5 draws)

• Drew 1-1 with Kawasaki with a rotated side.

• Zahedi expected to return with a few others

• Nara returned to the setup. Grolli was missing, unclear if was rested or undisclosed injury.

• Miya remains doubtful and assumed out.

• Nagaishi started in nets. Did fine, my hunch is Murukami returns but as always this situation here is unstable with the manager publicly saying he likes both keepers!

Key SO5 Players -Mae,  Konno

Set Piece Takers -Mae, Konno

Iwata vs Sagan

Iwata

• Lost to last min goal in 3-2 game vs Verdy

• Graca suspended. Morioka and Ito doubtful. Suzuki likely comes in

• Top scorer Germain is out for a month with a fracture - unclear who replaces him.

• Could see change in formation. Players like Ishida and Kaneko also likely to get more mins - one to watch this GW

Key SO5 Players - Germain, Uehara

Set Piece Takers - Uehara

Sagan

• Lost to Shonan on Monday. Second bottom. RB Harada is suspended

• CB Kimura returned from u23 duty.

• Outside Honda, squad is close to full availability.

• Growing pressure on the managers job. Fans have been booing which is relatively rare in Japan

• Have yet to win away from home this season

Shonan vs Machida

Shonan

• Big win vs Sagan last week.

• Tanaka returned from u23 duty. HUGE boost to the side. Should start

• Lukian seen in training, his conditon for this game is a uncertain

• Akito Suzuki and Onose seen in training, prob too soon - bench at best.

• SBK did well, some key saves.

• Yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

 Machida

• Top of the table and playing great

• Striker Erik back in the squad and building up strength. Hirakawa and Fujio also return from u23 int duty. LOTS of options

• Na Sang Ho went off with muscle injury last game. Waiting on training news. Nothing major but still a doubt till this GW til get preview news

• Manager is very tactical and changes things depending on opposition. Its good for the team but can see formation and personal changes that are hard to predict!

Key SO5 Players - Suzuki, Dresevic

Set Piece Takers - Suzuki

Kawasaki vs Sapporo

Kawasaki

• Having very poor season so far. 1 win in last 8 games

• Takai returns from u23 duty. Maruyama in full training. JSR also seen in some form of training

• Erison is suspended for this game. Yamada should come in, Gomis another option. Kobayashii is only in light training

• Yamamoto is in light training. Tono - Tachibanada - Wakizaka pref 3 midfield and most likely to continue

• Though general performance improving, until team start winning, lineup is at risk of Oniki continuing his experiments! Also at the back in particular more options availablle eg Jesiel and Takai

Key SO5 Players - Wakizaka, Marcinho,

Set Piece Takers - Wakizaka, Erison

Sapporo

• Bottom of the table with just 1 win all season.

• Performances improving but still giving away sloppy goals.

• Okamura was an unused sub last game. Should come back in for Ieizumi

• Miyazawa is back in full training and also an option.

• A few combos possible that have knock on effects. Players like Komai are very versitile and can play multiple positions.

Cerezo vs Kobe

Cerezo

• In relatively poor form. Winless in 4 and lost last week in local derby

• Injury problems at the back. Noborizato and Makuma both out

• For LB, Funaki or Hubner can play there. Could also see a change in formation to 3-5-2 with Fernandes and Tameda as wingbacks

• Nishio is back from international duty and in the running to start depending on the above too!

Key SO5 Players - KJH,  Maikuma, Tanaka, Kagawa, Ceara

Set Piece Takers - Fernandes

Kobe

• Rotated heavily in their 3-2 win against Niigata.

• Return to stronger lineup is expected eg Thuler, Saka, Osako and Muto all starting

• Lots of competition in some spots eg Hatsuse vs Honda and Yuruki/Miyashiro/Sasaki . Ideguchi also performed well

•  This is a local derby

Key SO5 Players - Sakai, Yamaguchi, Muto, Osako

Set Piece Takers -  Hatsuse

Nagoya vs Gamba

Nagoya

• Exceeded expectation in 3-2 away vs Hiroshima

• Junker returned from injury to get some mins. Still some way from full fitness/ability to start. Yamagishi is also in light training

• Yamanaka is out injured. Izumi/Uchida offer options here

• Patric did well last game and is facing another of his old clubs. Nagai was rested last game so not sure here!

• No clean sheet vs this opposition in their last 4 games

Key SO5 Players -Inagaki, Morishima, Langerak

Gamba

• Beat Cerezo in local derby thanks to Usami scoring a peach pf a goal

• Handa returned from u23s int duty and started at LB. Miura is out for the season so Nakatani + Fukuoka the pref CB choice

• Dawhan went off with cramps, should be fine. Lavi returning from injury, could feature

• Alano and Matsuda out injured.

FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa

FC Tokyo

• In excellent form with 3 wins on the bounce.

• Matsuki and Araki back from u23 duty. Araki has concussion and in light training only, imo wont be risked/maybe not allowed to play due to concussion rules.

• Nakagawa picked up slight muscle tweak last game, seen in training and should play.

• Diego in form and scored again in win vs Sapporo

• Brandon also back from u23 duty. Competitive fierce with Go Hatano (who made a mistake last week)

• Koizumi suspended. Replacing him and keeping balance in side will be key. How Matsuki will be used is unclear eg Nakagawa has done well in the middle

• Unbeaten vs Kashiwa in their last 4 meetings

Kashiwa

• In poor form, 1 win in 5

• Lost in a tight contest vs Kashima. Savio missed a pen

• Hosoya and Sekine are bath and likely starters here; Hosoya had a decent u23 tournament

• Takamine remains injured and out

Kashima vs Tokyo Verdy

Kashima

• 3 wins in a row and up to third in the table

• Shibasaki back in full training finally. Will be needed in this busy schedule, from bench first imo

• Limited news for this GW yet. Manager has been rotating his midfield a little including Higuchi/Nago/Nakama so I wouldnt be surprised by more changes here.

Key SO5 Players - Ueda, Higuchi, Suzuki

Set Piece Takers - Higuchi

Tokyo Verdy

• Unbeaten in 10 games. Won back to back games

• Kimura in form with 3 goals in last 2

• Someno and Hayashi are unavailable due to contractual reasons

• Fuki Yamada returns from u23 duty and likely starts

• Miyahara came off the bench last game. Should start at RB. Taniguchi not seen in training yet and assumed out.

• Could see Alves up top instead of wing/tweak in formation. Or Yamada offers another option (diff yamada to the RM one!)

ACL FINAL 1st Leg

YFM

• Expected to play their strongest X11

• Kamijima is suspended. Eduardo and Hatanaka expected to be CBs

• Elber has said he has an elbow injury but will play through the pain

• Squad has been resting/rotating with this game in mind. Experience will be key so I give Watanabe and Kida the nod in midfield.

• The rest of the team is pretty set when everyone is fit

SO5

Best Def - Kashima (46% CS), Machida (39% CS) Iwata (37% CS),

Best Attack- Kawasaki - 1.9 xG, Iwata - 1.56 xG,

Best Stack - Kashima

On paper, Kawasaki have the best game vs Sapporo. They have been in poor form so I think it will be a tighter contest than indicated. However I still expect them to win with both teams scoring but with Marchino not in form yet, its hard to find a decent fwd to use for the.

Iwata have looked good recently going forward. They play a poor Sagan team devoid of confidence. The injury to Germain is a big blow however I expect this to be a decent game for Peixoto. FC Tokyo have been scoring lots too and the return of Matsuki should help them too. Diego is also in form alongside Nakagawa.

Kashima Antlers also in form and they are particularly hard to breakdown at home. They have decent chances of a clean sheet with Verdy side without Someno. The Kyoto vs Fukuoka game also strikes me as a low scoring contest with clean sheet potential esp for Fukuoka.

In contender, we are seeing some league finishing off this GW eg Serie B and slightly less big hitters playing. We also have Celtic vs Rangers which should in theory help neutralize their scores a little!

Finish

Hope you found this useful!

I will send the updated version tomorrow including info from press conferences and further SO5 stuff and game predictions.

Any questions or feedback, just give me a shout :)