GW 467 J1 League Predicted Lineups - DRAFT (Patreon)

Intro

Lots of J league action coming up ths weekend!

Has been a busy few weeks with teams playing 4+ games inside a couple of weeks.

Most teams have had a week break making rotation risk less.

League Table

Machida are still flying high at the top. Hiroshima and Cerezo kept up the pressure with their respective wins and both are still unbeaten and playing great attacking football.

At the bottom, Sapporo finally got a win but remain bottom. Sagan are playing very poorly and looks like a long season ahead for them!

Iwata jumped to midtable after 2 solid wins. Lots of teams grouped together and I expect it to be another very tight league with so many teams very close in quality level

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

Main Points

• Rotation risk for YFM and Gamba in particular after they played midweek. YFM also travel to South Korea right after this game for their midweek ACL game.

• 3 keepers are suspended for 1 game! I personally think not worth getting in the replacement esp when its not certain who starts at each club.

• Hiroshima unsurprisingly have decent win %. Fukuoka are a team that are hard to break down/and also dont score many. Defensive stack for Sanfreece looks decent.

• Lots of injury problems for Kobe. Tough game vs Machida too. Not a team I suggest for main teams this GW

• Without Jesiel and Takai away with the u23s, Kawasaki look vulnerable in defense. I like Cerezo and their attack.

• Kashima have a decent chance to get a clean sheet at home to Kyoto. Antlers last season had the most clean sheets at home of any team.

• The U23 Asian Cup is about to begin and a few players have left their clubs and are unavailable for 3-5 weeks. The below is the full list of players:

  

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

YFM vs Shonan

YFM

• Beat Gamba 2-0 on Wednesday. Yan returning to start

• Play again on Wednesday in a HUGE ACL game. Note that Nagato is suspended for that game so v likely plays here

• Eduardo went off with an injury. Waiting for info but v likely rested/out here

• Confirmed that Kamijima, Matsubara and Mitzunuma all rested yesterday.

• Limited news on Elber. Read he and Tae Hee Nam not 100% yet

• Usually get a training report before deadline, could shed more light on player condition. With the amaount of games YFM have played, confidence on lineup is low/im expecting early subs with the ACL game in mind

Key SO5 Players - Elber, Eduardo, Yan

Set Piece Takers - Yan, Nagato

Rotation Risk -High

Shonan

• Winless in 5 games and lost 3 in a row

• Tanaka is away with the u23s now. HUGE miss. SBK is suspended. Tachi is out injured.

• Mawatari fav to be starting keeper. Situation with Tomii unclear.

• Akito Suzuki and Sugioka havent started last 2 games. Could return.

• Rotation Risk -Medium

Niigata vs Sapporo

Niigata

• No win in last 4 games. Failed to score in last 2

• Arai has transferred to Hiroshima.

• Ono and Suzuki back in full training. Always hard to predict if fit enough to start but Ono has reappeared with no notice before!

• CB situation as always unstable though im sticking with the same as last game.

Key SO5 Players - Kojima, Fujiwara, Akiyama

Set Piece Takers - Takagi, Hasegawa

Rotation Risk -Medium/High

Sapporo

• Won first game of season with 1-0 win over Gamba

• Omori started as striker. Kondo as RM

• Suzuki back to full training

• Likely keep to a similar setup and build on the win

  Rotation Risk - Low

Iwata vs Nagoya

• Newly promoted side

• Won two games in a row, both with clean sheets

• Suzuki is away with u23s duty now

• Peixoto scored twice last game. Fujiwara impressed also

Key SO5 Players - Graca, Uehara

Set Piece Takers - Uehara

Rotation Risk - Low/Medium

Nagoya

Nagoya

• Unbeaten in 4 games with 3 wins. Recovered well from poor start to season

• Langerak surprisingly missed last game with illness. Seen in full training and should start.

• Nogami also in training. Unclear if can start

• Junker out injured with knee injury :( Unclear timeline but likely long term.

• Manager has been rotating lots/trying different combos so relatively high rotation risk in mid/fwd lineup

Fukuoka vs Hiroshima

Fukuoka

• Back to back clean sheets.

• Situation with CB Nara unclear. Likely same back 3 as last game

• Zahedi has done well since signing, should continue up top

Key SO5 Players -Mae,  Konno

Set Piece Takers -Mae, Konno

Hiroshima

• Unbeaten after 7 games and 2nd in the table

• Araki out injured. Nakano likely to fill in with Arai goes to RM

• Kawamura went off with an injury last game.. Back in full training today and should start imo

• MJ in full training but best to wait til in the squad

• Team has been v stable so far.

Key SO5 Players - Sasaki, Mitsuda, Ohashi

Set Piece Takers -  Higashi, Mitsuta,

Rotation Risk - Low

Antlers vs Kyoto

Kashima

• Lost back to back games failing to score in both. Fans unrest.

• Higuchi returned last game. Lots of risk of further changes and manager trying different combos

• Shibasaki back in training but unclear if fit to start

• No other known injury concerns atm.

Key SO5 Players - Ueda, Higuchi, Suzuki

Set Piece Takers - Higuchi

Kyoto

• Awful performance in 0-3 loss to Iwata

• Captain and main set piece taker Kawasaki is away with the u23s - big miss

• Kaneko a risk for this game

• Yoshinori Suzuki seen in training. He was a winter signing but has been injured since now. Will be starter when/if fit

Machida vs Kobe

Machida

• Top of the table and playing great.

• Tani is suspended for 1 game after a red last game. Fukui fav to take over.

• Fujio and Hirakawa are with the u23s. This should give Na Sang Na more gametime as hes recovered from injury. Duke also could feature more

• Team has been pretty stable so far outside forced changes. No reason to change

Key SO5 Players - Suzuki, Dresevic

Set Piece Takers - Suzuki

Rotation Risk - Low

Kobe

• Current champions. Inconsistent defense of title. Lost last week to YFM

• Osako is big injury concern after going off. Not seen in training yet. Muto and Ide also doubt. Keeper Maekawa is suspended.

• Hatsuse did well last game. Should continue. Yuruki back in training but unclear if fit to make squad.

• After a draw and loss, increase risk manager changes it up. Injuries means he might be forced into changing structure eg Miyashiro upfront

• Waiting on training news/press conference for update on injuries/fitness of players

Key SO5 Players - Sakai, Yamaguchi, Muto, Osako

Set Piece Takers -  Osako

Rotation Risk - Medium/High

Cerezo vs Kawasaki

Cerezo

• Unbeaten after 7 games. Won 5 of their last 7 games.

• Ceara playing v well. Lots of attacking and I expect Bueno to start this one

• Nishio has joined the u23 int team. Same back 4 as last game most likely

• Kagawa back in training though this game likely too soon.

• Unbeaten in their last 6 games vs Kawasaki

Key SO5 Players - KJH,  Maikuma, Tanaka, Kagawa, Ceara

Set Piece Takers - Fernandes

Rotation Risk - Low

Kawasaki

• Very inconsistent season so far. 4 losses from opening 7

• CB Jeseil is out injured and Takai is with the u23 int team limiting choices at the back.

• Marchino is back from suspension and likely starts as LW

• Tachibanada missed last game but has been seen in training

• Segawa has started as RB last 3 games and likely continues there.

• Manager rotating/testing new systems more this season than usual due to bad form

Key SO5 Players - Wakizaka, Marcinho, Erison, Ienaga

Set Piece Takers - Wakizaka, Erison

Rotation Risk - Medium/High

Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo

Tokyo Verdy

• Drew 1-1 with Kashiwa last game. Yet to have a cleansheet this season.

• Yamada is now away on international duty. Unclear who will replace him, Saito/Yamami possibilities.

• Rest of side pretty stable. Team playing well in patches, just too many draws/late goals!

• This is a local derby

Rotation Risk - Low

FC Tokyo

• Beat Kashima 2-0 last week.

• Brandon, Araki and Matsuki all with u23 Japan side. Big misses!

• Nakamura and Higashi out injured.

• Lots of choices/uncertainty how they replace Matsuki in particular.

• I have Nakagawa as fav to be upfront. Tawarakuta did well and should start again. Players like Harakawa and Endo pushing for starts too.

• Doi and Trevisan have done well as CB and my favs to continue. Hatano to return in nets til Brandon returns then it will be v competitive situation again!

Gamba vs Sagan Tosu

Gamba

• Played on Wednesday where they lost 2-0 to YFM.

• Played well, esp Usami but couldnt finish chances.

• Handa is with u23 Japan side. Yamada and Alano big doubts.

• As previous game was yesterday, limited info available. Usami looked shattered. I think/hope he starts but some risk looking at past patterns.

  Rotation Risk - Medium/High

Sagan Tosu

Sagan

• Just 1 win in first 7 games. Lost 3-0 to Urawa last week in v poor performance.

• CB Kimura is now with the U23 national team.

• Manager trying different fwd options, hard to predict.

• Honda is in training but yet to make the squad.

SO5

Best Def -Hiroshima (48% CS), Kashima Antlers (45% CS)

Best Attack- YFM (1.65 xG, Gamba 1.6xG)

Best Stack - Hiroshima

Lots of high scoring teams available outside J league in contender! That includes those pesky Celtic guys as well as teams in Bundesliga 2 going for promotion like St Pauli with favourable games.

Finish

Hope you found this useful!

I will send the updated version tomorrow including info from press conferences and further SO5 stuff.

Any questions or feedback, just give me a shout :)