GW464 J1 League Preview - (Patreon)

Updated lineups with the final 4 predictions. Also added some risk indicators and SO5 analysis.

Waiting on press conferences still. They vary on quality/info given out. Some teams eg FC Tokyo have been training privately and reluctant to give out info.

I will post anything major that comes out later!

Intro

First full schedule of midweek games in J1 league this season coming up!

Saturday saw loads of action with Machida continuing their excellent start with their 4th win on the bounce!

Sapporo hit new lows getting smashed 6-1 away to Kobe.

League Table

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

Main Points

• Rotation risk in general is high for this GW. Teams played on Saturday and also play again this wkend. After each game there is a rotation risk indicator based on how the manager acts/importance of wkends games.

• Machida vs Hiroshima = 2 unbeaten and strong teams. This will give a very good indication of where Machida are at. I still suggest a Hiroshima stack just because they have so many high peak scorers

• Shonan attacking wise look strong. They are creating alot of chances and Tokyo Verdy havent had a clean sheet yet.

• Kobe demolished Sapporo and have a very favourable game again another poor defensive team in Sagan. My hunch is this game has high rotation risk esp at the back for kobe simply because they play YFM on the weekend which is a HUGE clash for them.

• Kawasaki finally won! They looked much better but too early to tell if they are a force to be reckoned with. YFM away is a tough game even though YFM have some injury issues.

• Sapporo looked the worse ive seen them vs Kobe. It should be a closer game at home vs Nagoya but i have to fancy the visitors after they have bounced back from a poor start to the season with back to back wins.

• Urawa have slowly but steadily got going. Still way off their best and I can see more to come from them with this manager. Scholz is still v likely out and that does hinder them

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Machida vs Hiroshima

Machida

• Newly promoted as Champions in J2. Started season excellent, unbeaten after 5 and top of the table.

• Vasquez, Na Sang Ho and Erik out injured.

• Junya Suzuki was subbed off last game at half time. Im reading it was tactical and no injury

• Hirakawa has been in excellent for including 3 assists last game

• Team has been pretty stable so far, no reason for any changes imo.

Key SO5 Players - Suzuki, Dresevic, Tani

Set Piece Takers - Suzuki

Rotation Risk - Low

Hiroshima

• Unbeaten after 5 games.

• Sotriou who is out. Matsumoto replaced him last game

• Arai scored on his debut to equalise last game

• Team has been v stable so far.

Key SO5 Players - Sasaki, Mitsuda, Ohashi

Set Piece Takers -  Higashi, Mitsuta,

Rotation Risk - Low

Shonan vs Tokyo Verdy

Shonan

• Played well in the first half but ultimately lost 2-0 to Cerezo

• SBK returned to start in nets! Tomii was missing from the squad but i expect SBK to continue now.

• Having been changing between 3/4 at the back depending on opposition.

• Yet to keep a cleansheet this season.

Key SO5 Players -  Min Tae, Sugioka, Tanaka,Lukian

Set Piece Takers - Sugioka

Rotation Risk - Low/Medium

Tokyo Verdy

• Winless after 5 games. Got a last min equalizer on Friday

• Kimura returns to the fold after missing the last game due to contractual reasons

• Miyahara made his first start at RB last game

• Yet to keep a cleansheet this season.

Rotation Risk - Low/Medium

Fukuoka vs Antlers

Fukuoka

• Back to back losses

• New signing Zahedi started and scored

• Miya and Matsuoka both started first game of season

• Manager known to change keeper. Risk increases after defeats even though Nagaishi doing fine.

Key SO5 Players - Nara, Mae,  Konno

Set Piece Takers -Mae, Konno

Rotation Risk - Medium

Kashima

• Solid start to season. Back to back wins.

• Doi preferred in midfield. Did well and manager spoke highly of him

• Sano seen in training. Likely light training and wont be ready for this game.

• Higuchi has been on the bench last 2 games. Manager has tried diff combos but atm more likely to be benched than starting.

• Shibasaki back in training but unclear his condition.

Key SO5 Players - Ueda, Higuchi, Suzuki

Set Piece Takers - Higuchi

Rotation Risk - Low/Medium

Iwata vs Niigata

Iwata

• Newly promoted side

• Lost 3 games in a row. Without a clean sheet this season.

• Uemura and Gomes started last game

• Ito missing from back last game, unclear the situation

Key SO5 Players - Matsubura, Graca Uehara

Set Piece Takers - Uehara

Rotation Risk - Low/Medium

Niigata

• Solid start to season though slightly disappointed to just get a draw on wkend

• Arai has transferred to Hiroshima.

• Chiba got first start. Manager changes things almost every game at CB though situation with Deng a little unclear

• Miyamoto not used last game. I read it was tactical after. He has played excellent so far so imo should return,

• Suzuki missing last game. Seen in training but again little info available atm.

• Ota started first game. Risk of being on the bench this game as just back to full fitness and 2 games in quick succession could be asking too much

Key SO5 Players - Kojima, Fujiwara, Akiyama

Set Piece Takers - Takagi, Hasegawa

Rotation Risk - Medium

Sagan vs Kobe

Sagan

• Just 1 win in first 5 games. Conceded alot and thin squad

• Ryan looked disappointed going off. Sofascore says injured but i think its ok (im no doctor though!)

• Kikuchi looked like he had a muscle problem/may well be cramp - unclear

• Honda is in training but yet to make the squad.

Rotation Risk - Low/Medium

Kobe

• Current champions. Trounced Sapporo 6-1 with Miyahiro on fire

• Sasaki and Yuruki remain out injured

• Hatsuse came on at half time for Honda. Ive read this was tactical/manager wanted to try out players with the game in the bag,

• Lots of options at CB in particular. This game is at much higher risk of general rotation imo. Waiting to see if any hint from manager though he is usually tight lipped!

Key SO5 Players - Sakai, Yamaguchi, Muto, Osako

Set Piece Takers -  Osako

Rotation Risk - Medium

YFM vs Kawasaki

• 2 wins and 2 losses from opening 4 games. No cleansheets yet.

• Popp returns from suspension.

• Yan is in light training. Unlikely to feature til mid April according to the gaffer

• Eduardo missed last game with a minor injury. Hint is unlikely to play this game. Hatanaka not full fit so there is risk Matsubara goes as CB again

• Ken Watanabe also has a slight injury from the wkend game. Big doubt here. As always lots of options in midfield

• YFM have 5 games in 12 days so rotation risk high. This is a local derby and a against a rival so i expect strongish side

• Waiting for training reports which usually give info on player conditions. YFM are v data driven so this can give indications of who is at risk etc.

Key SO5 Players - Elber, Eduardo, Yan

Set Piece Takers - Yan, Nagato

Rotation Risk - Medium

Kawasaki

• Finally won after 3 straight losses.

• Manager changed things again with JSR returning, Segawa at RB and Seko in over Yamamoto.

• Marchino is back from suspension and likely starts as LW

• Erison in full training. Should start.

• Manager generally doesnt like to rotate once he finds something he thinks works. The most likely lineup (baring any late injuries) is similar to the last game.

• Sai situation remains a mystery. He is fit but not in the squad recently. Perhaps a falling out with manager- annoying one tbh!

Key SO5 Players - Wakizaka, Marcinho, Erison, Ienaga

Set Piece Takers - Wakizaka, Erison

Rotation Risk -Low

Gamba vs Kyoto

Gamba

• Good started to season. Unbeaten with 2 wins and 2 draws so far.

• Kishimoto confirmed out injured.

• Meshino returned from bench last game. Pushing for a start.

• Midfield changing a little with Lavi, Dawhan/Suzuki battling it out for 2 spots. I reckon Lavi returns to start this game.

• This is a local derby

Rotation Risk - low/Medium

Kyoto

• Api returns after suspension

• Kaneko not seen in training yet, big doubt

• Toyokawa went off holding his hamstring. Seen in training but unclear if actually doing full training - a doubt for now

Rotation Risk - low/Medium

Kashiwa vs Cerezo

Kashiwa Reysol

• Drew 1-1 with Niigata on Saturday. Solid start to season with just 1 loss in 5

• Takamine confirmed injured and out for 3 months.

• Kinoshita started and scored in his debut start. Should continue

• Savio the main man again this season for Kashiwa. Is creating lots of big chances/on set pieces and suits the matix. Got another assist last game.

Key SO5 Players - Koga, Inukai, Savio, Hosoya

Set Piece Takers - Savio

Rotation Risk - low/Medium

Cerezo

• Unbeaten after 5 games, with 3 wins in a row.

• Kagawa situation unclear

• Most likely same team imo. Players like Capixaba at most risk of rotation.

Key SO5 Players - KJH,  Maikuma, Tanaka, Kagawa, Ceara

Set Piece Takers - Kagawa

Rotation Risk - Medium

Sapporo vs Nagoya

Sapporo

• Awful start to season. Winless and 4 losses in a row.

• Miyazawa in full training. His experience means he could come in

• Supachok also likely to return after being on bench post internationals

• Hasegawa is also pushing for a start after being one of a few bright sparks in the 6-1 loss last game.

• Kondo played in a practice game on Sunday. He is keen to start. Could be from the bench or as RWV with Asano likely then moving into AM.

• In general, I suggest avoiding Sapporo players if poss for time being. They have conceded the most goals in the league and scored the least!

• There is discontent in the side and morale is low. Little upside at the moment and lots of risks

  Rotation Risk - High

Nagoya

• Got back to back wins after a hard fought win vs YFM

• Yamagishi went off with injury. Out for this game

• Ha Chang Rae has concussion. Out for this game and should return on wkend.

• Junker not in training either so also likely out

• Yoshida fav to play at back in place of Ha Chang Rae. Manager commented there are limited choices. Inoue another choice

• Patric upfront is an option. Another is Nagai with Izumi as AM

• Yamanaka scored last game, should start. Manager has previously expressed he wasnt happy with the defensive side of Yamanakas game

Rotation Risk - Medium

FC Tokyo vs Urawa

FC Tokyo

• Beaten comfortable by Kawasaki 3-0

• Hatano got a red and is suspended.

• High risk of rotation. Manager has hinted that players need resting (not specified who!) Squad has lots of options esp in midfield eg Ogashiwa/Harakawa

• From interviews, Nakamura and Tawarakuta getting lots of attention. CBs were considered to have had a poor game vs Kawasaki and Trevisan back to full fitness

• Could see the return of Diego upfront

• Havent beaten Urawa in their last 4 meetings.

Rotation Risk - High

Urawa

• Beat Fukuoka 2-1 for managers first home win of season.

• Santana got a goal and looked sharper.

• Iwao and Gustafson played together in mid. Lots of praise for Iwao. Manager is testing things out so unclear on this. My hunch is Iwao plays again

• Scholz not seen in training and assumed out.

• Sekine was missing last game and limited info available.

• Lots of options at LW. Okubo just back from injury and looked rusty

Rotation Risk - Medium

SO5

The new system with Contender started last GW. Its only been one GW so important not to jump to too many conculusions too much! Also We had alot of leagues open making it very competitive.

This GW is very different. We predominantly have J and K league teams with a few Croatian teams. This means it will be alot less competitive, especially in-season. We only have had a few a weeks of auctions so especially SR will not be very competitive imo.

With 3 teams allowed, I plan to take calculated risks for 1 team. Eg Kobe are rotation risk (hard to predict) but I will use a stack aware that it could see DNPs. For another team, I will likely use a mix and third team try a variance play eg Shonan attack with Nagoya defense!

The thresholds are still available so I will still be farming them

Best Def - Kobe (42% CS), Kashima (42% CS)

Best Attack- Kobe, YFM

Best Stack - Kobe

Servette FC have a very favourable game and old J1 league boys Tsunemoto and Nishimura are there

Finish

Hope you found this useful!

I will post anything that major comes out

Any questions or feedback, just give me a shout :)