Recap + Spite Driven 2/21 Slate + MLS Back??? (Patreon)

Alright! 

I kicked 4 people yesterday and another 3 today. Think we did well cleaning house a bit. Only saving grace was no KDB start so that leg voided, but still a pitiful -3.5u day. Time to buckle up, kick some ass and make the haters regret leaving. I'm honing in. Miller lite in one hand, petting freya with the other. Let's freaking do this! 

I did full articles for a few games tomorrow and I specially picked these matches out to do articles for because I liked these lines. A lot in play tomorrow and a lot on same games but this is what I'm on!  This is scary to say but I have 6u in play tomorrow over three games! Pick your favorites, take your lines, and BOL as always!

Everything is 1u except the 2 plus odds Inter Miami plays I went half unit!  Let's go! 

2/21 Slate:

Livepool v Luton Town. BTTS -130. 2:30pm ET. EPL

- Score Prediction.  2-1/3-1/3-2 Liverpool.

So I did an article for this where I also talked about like a sprinkle on BTTS 1h and also Calrton ATGS at +350 for Luton. But then this afternoon I saw Liverpools injury list and phewwww this game could get ugly. I still like this bets but when you have so many players hurt sometimes things go sideways, so just sitting on BTTS right now. Here's the updated list of LFC injuries right now :

Salah, Nunez ,Szoboszlai, TAA Jones, Jota, Matip, Alisson, Thiago,  Bajcetic. (Salah is a maybe)

Liverpool at home is no joke, but I'm just saying, I could be off, but I expect Luton to be crazy in this one! 

BARCELONA at NAPOLI | 2/21 | 3 P.M. ET. 3 plays:
Picks:

• Over 2.5 goals  -135 (1 unit)
• Robert Lewandowski anytime goal scorer  +150 (1 unit)
• Barcelona draw no bet  -120 (1 unit)

Score Prediction: 2-1. Barcelona

Of all the Round of 16 Champions League matches, this is the one that has the biggest question mark over it for me. We have two teams that were incredible last season, with Napoli winning Serie A and Barcelona winning La Liga. After winning their respective leagues, both teams fell off, and fell off hard.

Napoli currently are ninth in Serie A. They only lost four matches last season but have already doubled that total over 24 matches in 2023-24. They're not scoring nearly enough and are leaking goals at a worrying rate. While this team has struggled with injuries, it does appear as if it had its one incredible season and is falling back into mediocrity.

Napoli will be able to start their best players as Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are both available, but frankly, they've looked like shadows of their former selves. They will have the advantage of taking the first leg of this tie at home, but I don't think that will be enough for a club that has dropped points domestically to the likes of Torino, Empoli, Monza and Genoa.

While Napoli are having a horrendous season, Barcelona are doing a little better - but not much. Under the tutelage of new manager Xavi, expectations have been high for the returning La Liga champions, and they have not been met.

The club that was a preseason favorite to repeat is now eight points behind Real Madrid and shockingly two in back of Girona on the table. Xavi has already announced he doesn't plan on staying with the club as it has not met expectations, so this could be his last UCL experience with Barcelona. With the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Vitor Roque, Raphina, Pedri, Gavi and more, this is a club that should win regardless of the matchup, as the talent is there - even if the results have not.

I'm expecting Napoli to do everything they can to hang on, but they should be outclassed and outperformed, even by this out-of-form Barca side.

INTER MIAMI vs. REAL SALT LAKE | 2/21 | 8 p.m. ET
Picks. 3 plays

• Inter Miami ML and Over 1.5 Team Goals (-120). 1u
• Luis Suarez Anytime Goal Scorer (+120). .5u
• Over 3.5 goals (+120). 5u

Score Prediction: 3-1 Inter 

Analysis
We welcome the 29th season of Major League Soccer with an absolute banger of a match, with preseason favorites Inter Miami taking on Real Salt Lake. Lionel Messi and Miami will look to dominate the league, and, if the players remain healthy, they're expected to do that.

After Messi joined Inter Miami late last season, the impact he had was immediate and massive. Not only did the team start scoring and winning, but the draw to play with one of the greatest players of all time was too much for other talent to ignore. Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba, two phenomenal athletes, helped transform this squad. While those three alone are already good enough to take this team out of the mud, the squad was bolstered even further in the offseason, with Luis Suarez joining Messi once again.

This is a club that is too good to ignore and is a sure bet to score goals. This will be the offensive juggernaut of MLS this season, and Miami will look to make a statement in their first match. They will take on a Real Salt Lake side that is good and had a great season last year ending in the Western Conference playoffs but was appalling defensively, conceding 50 goals in its 34 matches. Having to start the season against Inter Miami will test that defense immediately. Even with both teams coming into this match with some rust to knock off, I expect goals from both ends and Inter Miami to start with a big three points.