1/6 Recap + 1/7 Slate + Lessons (Patreon)

Well tough dealing with family stuff, only to come home and see on top of that, wasn't even close to hitting a bet (I know Girona and Braga were close) but you know what I mean.

Recap: 0-5. -5u

No hiding from a day like this. This was my worst day, and worst run of days in a long freaking time! Thank you for all the kind words still! I know this is a tough way to start the new year but we have a long way to go still this year so let's come back! 

One thing I want to note. I know that there are people making money on cup matches, and I hope you are all on your own still! But I'm going to take the last couple days, learn from it, and back off cup games right now, especially with international duty going on. FA Cup is not my friend right now. I know Marseille plays in the French Cup tomorrow, I think they'll score 4+, but they also could lose haha. There's value to be had but it's tough getting a read and I don't want to worry about that right now! 

Onwards and upwards as always! I'm back home now so let's get back on the grind, give some good write-ups and get after this. 3 plays for me tomorrow! All league play matches! Happy Sunday gang, Let's finish this week off on a high note! I'm taking Freya on a late walk so I'll check questions once we get back! 

1/7 Slate. 2 plays and 1 parlay. 1u a piece!  

Empoli v AC Milan. AC Milan ML + Over 1.5 goals. -105. 6:30am ET. Serie A

- Score Prediction. 2-0/2-1/3-0

*Thoughts*

My favorite bet on this game is AC Milan 1.5 TT, but that's -150, which is the same as the ML, at -150. If you don't mind the juice I'd like the 1.5 TT here! HOWEVER. I wanted to get this down closer to even odds here. Even though it's been a tough day I gotta go with my gut here! 

Empoli is 19th on the table, with the least goals scored in the entire league. 10 goals scored in 18 matches with 30 conceded. Their whole playstyle is pretty much "Hold on to 0-0 for as long as possible and see if we can draw maybe I guess". So what effects this game the most, is how quickly can AC Milan score. AC Milan who is fighting for a top four spot have been great so far! They did have a scrappy 1-0 win in their least league outing against Sassuolo, but looking back at their last seven matches which included a coppa Italia nad a UCL match against Newcastle, AC Milan have scored 2+ in 6 of their 7 matches. This on paper should be an easy win for AC Milan, but what matters most is how quickly can they get that first goal, because Empoli will play 10 back if they need to here. If AC Milan score in the first half, this game could see 3+ goals, if it's 0-0 at half, expect a blitz from AC Milan, who I do believe should get 2+ goals here, and win! 

Panserraikos v Kifisia. BTTS -120. 8am ET. Greece Super League **Favorite Play Today** 

- Score Prediction 2-2 Draw.

*Thoughts*

- Y'all know I love my Greece Super League, but this time rather than focus on the big clubs, we're doing the opposite. Two newly promoted teams who have enjoyed their first year back in the top flight by conceding the most and second most goals in the league. Both defenses are average 1.9 or more goals per match conceded, and both teams are desperate for points right now. While their defenses are shambolic, their offenses aren't terrible all things considered. Both clubs have conceded in 15 of their 16 matches so far this season, but are still scoring 1+ goal a game. Another thing to note her, they last time they played in the reverse fixture, we saw an absolutely wild 4-4 draw where both teams looked like they only cared about attack. I don't know if we'll get 8, but BTTS at -120 is something I can't ignore, as when I saw they were playing I was prepared to go BTTS + over 2.5 to play this match before seeing lines. 

Turkey Super Lig Parlay (-135)

Istanbulspor AS v Fenerbahce. Fener over 1.5 TT.  8am ET -350

Galatasaray v Konyaspor. Galatasaray over 1.5 TT 11am ET -275

*Thoughts*

I'm a big big big fan of going back to the basics, and there is nothing more basic than taking the two giants of the super lig, both coming off a rare draw (Against each other) looking for a bounce back, both itching to play because both clubs protested and REFUSED to play in the Turkey Super Cup final before this. So I'm backing two pissed off, incredible scoring, desperate to win teams fighting for top of the league. Istanbulspor and Konyaspor are in for a rough time. Both teams are 16th and 20th on the table, fighting for relegation, and Konyaspor is finding a bit of form, but form usually doesn't matter when you play the big dogs of Turkey. I think both teams could score 3+ here, but keeping this one safe and doing what we did for the Greece Super League earlier this week.