Recap + 12/14 Slate (Patreon)

Hey gang!

Back to back day of getting my butt kicked. I could rant about how Zurich had so many chances but results matter and xG doesn't. Definitely a cold 2 days for me but I'm going to continue to trust the processes that work long term! Sorry for the losses as always but I'm going to keep on rolling! Determined to end the month / year off right for all of us! 

Recap: -3u. 2 losses and a push. I literally picked the only UCL game that didn't hit BTTS, to hit BTTS. That sucks no way around it! 

Here's what I'm betting on tomorrow! 4 1u plays.  .25 fun longshots! I'm going out of my way to target teams that need results in the last matchday! Also I'm going to make the reasoning a permanent addition to Patreon. It feels good to give my thoughts regardless of outcome! 

1u Plays: 

Maccabi Tel Aviv v KAA Gent. Gent DNB -130. 3pm ET. UEFA Conference League 

- Score Prediction. 2-1 Gent / 2-2

* Reasoning*. Gent have been perfect so far this competition, still unbeaten with 4 wins in a draw. They only need a draw here to claim the top spot, but if they lose they drop. Taking the DNB for that safety net knowing they'd be happy with a 1-1 or 2-2. If you want to play a half unit on the Gent ML and half on the Gent Draw you can do that as well. One thing I will say is Maccabi doesn't match well against Gent like we saw in the first leg, also Gent are killers on the road.

Zrinjski Mostar v Aston Villa. BTTS -110. 12:45pm ET. UEFA Conference League 

- Score Prediction. 1-2 Aston Villa / 2-3 Aston Villa 

* Reasoning* Aston Villa have pretty much wrapped this group up and don't need to win this match. They have been leaking goals this competition playing in a tough offensive group, and that shouldn't change against a Zrinjski side playing for pride at home, where they are absolute beasts. They've only failed to score twice at home since October of 2022, and Aston Villa playing a mixed bag of starters and backup have the quality to score. This is one of my favorite matchups tomorrow for goals in general! 

Brighton v Marseille. Marseille to score in the first half. +125. 3pm ET MGM.

- Score Prediction. 2-3/ 2-2/ 2-1 Marseille lean.

* Reasoning* This is one of those situations where I straight up disagree with the line. If I wasn't second guessing myself a bit right now I'd love Marseille DC. This is the fight to win the group. If Marseille win or draw, they win the group. I expect goals and action here, but marseille is finding form while Brighton is barely beating Burnley and losing to Chelsea. I know it's a cup game so logic goes out the window a bit but I cannot back Brighton right now. They did beat Ajax and Athens to nil in their previous games but Athens got a red (and still looked better) and Ajax is just....so sad right now. I'm expecting Marseille to score early here, and give Brighton hell.

West Ham v Freiburg. BTTS + Over 2.5 goals. -115. 3pm ET. Europa League 

- Score Prediciton. 2-2 Draw

** Reasoning* First and foremost, freiburg have been awesome in Europa so far. They've just been body slamming clubs in this competition and it's been awesome. All 5 of their matches have hit over 2.5 goals and 4/5 have hit over 3.5 goals. Amazing. Meanwhile West Ham are tough to read. They are equal on points but since they beat Freiburg in leg 1 2-1 they have the slight edge here, but they also just got mauled 5-0 by Fulham. So both teams need a win, both teams like goals, West Ham needs a bounce back and Freiburg is hopefully gonna do what they always do. Just say F it and go for goals in classic Bundesliga style. Freiburg have to push here. 0 exceptions.

.25u Longshots

Brighton v Marseille. Marseille over 1.5 TT 1h. +725 (MGM)

West Ham v Freiburg. BTTS 1h. +280 *MGM* 3pm ET. Europa League