9/22 plays + POTD (Patreon)

3-1-4 yesterday on the 1u shots and both longer shots missed. 

We move! I love Fridays slate so I'm going multi-unit on a couple of these! 

Also my sleep schedule is still sideways. So I'm heading to bed! Sorry for the 4am email ping LOL 

2.5u POTD

AS Monaco v OGC Nice. over 2.5 goals. -135. 3pm ET. France Ligue 1 

- I also Like BTTS and Monaco over 1.5 TT here. BTTS is -165, Monaco over 1.5 TT is -105. But I'm taking a blanket over 2.5 goals. Monaco is averaging 3 goals scored a game by themselves, OGC Nice just scored 3 against PSG last week. I was fully expecting this over to be closer to -200. and have no problem making this a bigger play for me. Nothing crazy in expected lineups, no injuries we have to worry about. By far my favorite play today and it's not even close

1u Plays:

VfL 1899 Osnabruck v Hamburger SV. Laszio Benes ATGS +225 (MGM). 2nd Bundesliga 12:30pm ET 

- feeeeels like this line is off for the top goal scorer for Hamburg, coming off their first loss, against the worst defensive team in Germany. I would play this at even odds so at +225 that's just a value play baby and I'm going a full unit

Stuttgart v Darmstadt. BTTS + Over 2.5 goals. -105 German Bundesliga 3pm ET 

- It confuses the absolute hell out of me but Stuttgart has the most goals in all of Bundesliga right now. 14 scored and 6 conceded. This team is incredible. They also have the golden boot leader Serhou Guirassy leading the charge with 8 goals in 4 games (His 1st to score is +270 if you want to snag that. ATGS is -150).  Stuttgart wins this one 3-1 or 4-1 in my opinion. But Darmstadt facing a relegation stare down and coming off a big 3-3 draw against Gladbach have to go for goals here.

1u Article Plays (Serie A)

US Salernitana v Frosinone. Frosinone DNB +100. Italy Serie A 12:30pm ET.

US Salernitana v Frosinone. Frosinone BTTS -110. Italy Serie A. 12:30pm ET. 

- Frosinone is either impressive or annoying, and I'm not quite sure what the correct descriptor is yet. They are newly promoted under the tutelage of Eusebio Di Francesco, and as impressive as their promotion was, they were expected to pretty much tank and face relegation this year... but that's not what's happening. They started off their season taking on a brutal opening schedule which included Napoli, Atalanta, Udinese, and Sassuolo, and they've looked incredible.

Frosinone is currently (astonishingly) sitting sixth on the table, having only faced one loss so far this season, which came to the former Scudetto winners Napoli. They managed to beat both Atalanta and Sassuolo and drew against a strong Udinese side in a match in which they looked the better side. This is a team that is consistently over performing in the early stages of this season, without any of the star power that would warrant that happening. This is a team that has gone through the perils of promotion together and are here to defy all logic in the top flight of Italian soccer. They once again open as underdogs against a Salernitana side that's pretty much doing the opposite.

Salernitana, if you remember, had a pretty mediocre 2022-23 season but stayed up. They finished with a record of 9-15-14 and were 15th on the table out of the 20 clubs. They didn't really look too bad, but didn't do anything that made them stand out. They were a decent club at home but conceded the third most goals in the league. This season, they're not even mediocre. They've now played four matches and are one of the four teams in the league that have yet to pick up a win. With a record of 0-2-2, they've been outscored 3-8, having been smacked by Lecce and Torino in their last two matches. They have yet to keep a clean sheet and only have one goal at home this season.

While on paper Frosinone should be a good bounce back spot for Salernitana as they try to find their footing, I just don't see it. I expect Frosinone to continue to ride the wave they're on, as every point from the start of the season is critical to not only avoiding relegation but continuing their chance at finding a European spot.