Thursday Salte: UEFA Womens + Paraguay (Patreon)

Hey gang! 

Here's what I'm on tomorrow - super small slate but still like some value! 

VfL Wolfsburg v PSG Womens. Wolfsburg DC ( Double Chance) + Chelsea v Lyon. Chelsea DC (Double Chance). -115. MGM.

^ It's a parlay taking Wolfsburg to win or draw + Chelsea to do the same. 

Libertad Asuncion v Club General Caballero Jlm. Libertad 1h ML -115 (MGM) 7pm ET. Paraguay Primera Division.

Wolfsburg + Chelsea Thoughts:

I frankly think Wolfsburg and Chelsea both win outright but I'll admit I don't know as much about these women's teams as I do Barca and Bayern. I'm leaning very very heavily into homefield advantage like we saw today with Bayern. Wolfsburg have not lost in a UCL match at home in their last 6 matches at home while Chelsea have won their last 12 games at home across all competitions this season. Both Chelsea and Wolfsburg are up 1-0 in aggregate scoring after the first leg, so I expect them to play really slow here and play for a low scoring game. Both Chelsea and Wolfsburg are also devastating on the counter attack - so the longer these games stay 0-0, the more desperate PSG and Lyon get, the more chances our teams have to beat up on the counter. 

Libertad Asuncion Thoughts:

I'm playing one of my favorite angles here - the revenge angle. Libertad have been the most dominate team this year besides Cerro Porteno. Libertad are currently sitting on a 6-1-1 record and are coming into this game, at home, after their first loss of the year, a loss that a lot of people referred to as "BS". Libertad lost to Olimpia last week after conceding a goal in the 90+5th minute, in a game that only had 2 minutes of extra time, and they also had a player sent off with a red. The manager and team looked PISSSSED, and I expect them to come out and beat up on a General Caballero side that has only one once this year, and who have the third most goals conceded in the league. The ML is currently -350 which isn't great, so taking the 1h ML expecting Libertad to probably put 3 in this game, and get right back to winning ways as to avoid any kind of drought in goals for the team.