5/5/22 Picks (Patreon)

I've received some much appreciated feedback from y'all! I'm going to start posting all picks I'm on so you have them in one place - so for tomorrow there's the Twitter plays as well as the extra slate for the Patreon plays! 

The bet marked with ******* will always be my most confident play, so for tomorrow it's Marseille over 1.5 goals TT. 

Analysis:

Marseille shocked Ligue 1 last week after losing 3 to nil to Lyon in an important match. Marseille is fighting to stay in the top two spots to make sure they have a bounce back to Champions League next year. In this match we saw them with 63% possession but was held to only a single shot on goal. This was the first time in 13 matches we've seen Marseille fail to find a goal. We now have a weird situation where Marseille wants to win in Conference, but also needs to be winning in their last few league games. Luckily for us, Marseille's has an easy matchup against a struggling Lorient side later in the week, which will allow them to put all their focus into a bounce back game against a defensively unavailable Feyenoord side. Playing at home, after a loss, backed in a corner down 3-2 in aggregate, this is a perfect place for Sampaoli and his men to make a run to the Europa Conference finals. Marseille is the type of team that loves to show off in front of their home fans, and as we saw in the first leg, defense isn't really either teams strong suit, so we should expect an exciting open game, but Marseille will need to put in two here to help secure the aggregate win and the qualification.