ALL ACCESS - 2024 NBA Draft Big Board Preview (Patreon)

I've spent the last two weeks digging into the 2024 NBA Draft class and I've returned with some big takeaways.

First, a couple warnings: 

-SMALL SAMPLE SIZE WARNING. We are VERY early in the process - the sample size is small and the college prospects have played a majority of their games against inferior competition. I usually see that college prospects' fantasy projections dip as the season goes on, so be cautious not to overvalue early season numbers from college prospects.

-THIS IS ONLY THE CONSENSUS LOTTERY PROSPECTS. If you follow my work, you know I'm going to dig into every draft eligible prospect by the time the draft rolls around next offseason. For now, I'm starting with the 14 prospects that the big media draft boards have as consensus lottery picks right now. Future editions will add in prospects like Kel'el Ware, Dalton Knecht, Justin Edwards, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Bub Carrington who just missed the cut for this lottery preview.

Second, here are my big takeaways:

-Nikola Topić is the 1.01 of the 2024 class. Topić's performance for Mega across 14 games as an 18-year old should have him at the top of every NBA Draft board. He's the youngest top prospect in this class and is already a pick-n-roll maestro against grown men - we've seen this kind of teenage production before in professional leagues from players like Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Alperen Sengun, and Victor Wembanyama - and we know what that means. Some of your league mates might think this class has no crown jewel or they may think the top prize is Alex Sarr or Isaiah Collier - they're wrong. 

-Isaiah Collier's fantasy stat set is a problem. Until flatlining against Long Beach State, there was a lot of buzz around Collier as the #1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. He may still end up going #1 because of the league's bias toward prospects who play on top NCAA programs, but he has no business going #1 in your dynasty rookie draft. Maybe he improves the three point volume, hits more free throws, and stops being a turnover machine - but I don't like what I see so far.

-There are going to be some great fantasy role players in this draft. You'll see I have players like Kyle Filipowski, Reed Sheppard, Ryan Dunn and Rob Dillingham at the back-end of this list despite projecting them all to have strong to elite fantasy stat sets. That's because the big media draft gurus aren't all on board with them as lottery picks on their boards and they may not end up getting lottery draft capital. With that said, I love all four of them from a fantasy perspective and I'm eager to see where they land this offseason.

-This is going to be a draft where we lap the field. The narrative around this draft is that it's a bad class - and that very well may be true from an NBA talent evaluation perspective. The draft lacks the usual star talent you see at the top. BUT from a fantasy perspective, there is going to be so much value that most of your league is not going to see. That's why we do this work so early and why I'll keep doing it for the next seven months. This is where we win and I hope you all stick with me through the season as I keep updating my board.

-Matt