📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 26 2023📈 (Patreon)

Six NBA games on Saturday.

Plus, a huge slate of G League games including some big performances from the 2024 NBA Draft prospects on the G League Ignite.

PHI 127 @ OKC 123

🔸Remember the pre-draft discourse about how Chet Holmgren would get broken in half against centers like Joel Embiid? 33 PTS | 5-11 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 3 BLK | 8-10 2PT | 2-2 FT in 32 minutes. We’re now 16 games deep into Chet looking like a 50/40/90 shooter and he’s just scratching the surface of his scoring ability off the dribble. Time to reassess the fantasy ceiling for Chet, yet again…

🔸The Thunder know infinitely more about the NBA’s current investigation into Josh Giddey than the public does and they chose to play him in this game. That doesn’t confirm anything - but it’s a data point suggesting Giddey may not face any discipline.

🔸Paul Reed was back to only 11 minutes as the straight backup to Joel Embiid and Jaden Springer continues to be outside the rotation in favor of 21 minutes of Patrick Beverley. It won’t stay like this forever so we continue to stash these two and wait for their roles to expand.

🔸Cason Wallace got the start but registered just an assist and a steal in 14 minutes. I remain optimistic about his future but his offensive role is microscopic right now (10.3% usage).

MIA 97 @ BKN 112

🔸Another nice game from Jaime Jaquez Jr. - 18 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 5 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 6-12 2PT in 31 minutes (and he started with Jimmy Butler out). He’s now 22-55 (40%) from three this season after hitting only 33 3PT in his entire senior season at UCLA. His college steal rate is translating to the NBA so far (80th percentile) so there’s enough of a stat set here to support future top 100ish seasons if he’s going to be a 32+ minute starter in his prime and a top 150 player if he’s just a rotation player.

🔸The Heat were missing half of their rotation so we got 17 minutes of Nikola Jovic, who scored only 1 point but registered 6 REB and 5 AST. The playmaking from a 6’10” forward is what makes Jovic an intriguing prospect, but - at only 20 years old - we’re probably still a year or two away from him being a viable rotation player on a contending team.

🔸Dariq Whitehead and Noah Clowney have been playing down in the G League (with mixed results) and made their NBA debuts in 3 minute cameos here. Neither looks ready for NBA minutes but we’ll be watching their Long Island Nets’ performances closely.

🔸Orlando Robinson wasn’t available because he was on assignment in the G League. Make sure to check out the big line he had in the G League Lightning Round below.

ATL 136 @ WAS 108

🔸Jalen Johnson looks like he’ll miss some time after an ugly fall on his wrist in the second quarter. There’s no impact on his long-term outlook here - he’s the strongest of holds in all dynasty leagues and should be a trade target if any managers get impatient during his injury recovery.

🔸Bilal Coulibaly played 32 minutes thanks to extended garbage time, but the line was quiet - 7 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK. Don’t judge Bilal based on the box score - the flashes are what matters and he continues to show maturity beyond his years off-the-dribble and as a finisher. The ceiling here is very high, it’s just going to take time.

🔸Even with Jalen Johnson’s early exit, we only got 6 minutes of AJ Griffin and I don’t expect him to gain playing time in the coming weeks. I’m still optimistic about Griffin as a long-term, fringe starter because of his frame and shooting ability, but there may not be enough of a fantasy stat set here for him to be a hold in shallow formats rostering fewer than 150 players.

LAL 121 @ CLE 115

🔸Evan Mobley is dominating at the rim again (7-9 vs. LAL; 72% on the season) and his improvement at the free throw line continues (11-12 in his last three games; 75.9% on the season). He hasn’t attempted a three in the last five games but the assist rate is a career-high 15.4% (62nd percentile). I’m encouraged.

🔸With Cam Reddish out, we got a start for Max Christie Jr. and a solid line - 12 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 3-3 2PT in 33 minutes. It’s encouraging to see this level of faith in Max, especially after a rough start to this season where he’s shot only 25% from three. I think Christie Jr. can be a long-term rotation player with an underwhelming fantasy stat set and I’m not sold on starter upside.

🔸Craig Porter Jr. stayed in the rotation with Mitchell, Okoro, and LeVert all active (17 MIN) and this is what his role should look like going forward. The swing skill to watch for CPJ is the volume of his 3PT shooting - he’s had only 8th percentile 3PT volume so far (1.5 attempts per 75 possessions), which needs to come up significantly if he’s going to reach his full potential. The rest of his stat set is eye-popping, but it’s hard for a 6-2 guard to play big minutes without an outside shot.

NOR 100 @ UTA 105

🔸Walker Kessler returned and played 21 minutes off the bench. The production was what we came to expect from Walker last season - 11 PTS | 11 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK. We can probably write off the early struggles to the injury in the season opener. Omer Yurtseven got the start here but Kessler should be back into his normal role in short order.

🔸Keyonte George is struggling to score inside the arc like most rookie guards, but the 3PT shooting is coming on (7-15 in his last two games) and he’s had 5+ assists in 7 of his 8 starts. He’s atrocious on defense but that’s also standard for a rookie PG - I am seeing a trajectory as a long-term starting PG who could peak with top 50 fantasy seasons.

🔸The three was falling again for Jordan Hawkins (5-12) and he logged his third 20+ point game of his rookie campaign. Hawkins is a special shooting prospect who is averaging 8.6 catch-and-shoot three pointers per 36 minutes (99th percentile). The spacing he provides should keep him in a 20+ minute rotation role even once the Pels are healthy - but I still don’t see a well-rounded fantasy stat set here for the long-term.

🔸If only we could merge Dyson Daniels and Jordan Hawkins into one player. Daniels can’t shoot from outside (0-6 vs. UTA; 27.3% on the season), but everything else we want for fantasy is there - 6 REB | 5 AST | 6 STL | 1 BLK. I think legendary shooting coach Fred Vinson eventually gets Dyson to be a competent catch-and-shoot 3PT shooter and the defense and playmaking are good enough to keep Daniels in the rotation while the shooting develops.

DAL 88 @ LAC 107

🔸It sounds like Dereck Lively II should be ok after taking a scary fall in the Mavs’ last game. He missed this one but we hopefully get him back next week.

🔸The Mavs are leaning hard on veterans - Jaden Hardy (8 MIN) and Josh Green (9 MIN) barely played against the Clippers despite this game being a blowout. Both deserve more minutes than this but we can’t expect Jason Kidd to have logical rotations. O-Max Prosper appeared in garbage time but he won’t be in the rotation anytime soon.

🔸Shoutout to Bones Hyland who got less than four minutes in garbage time and immediately got up four shots. Bones isn’t in the rotation and will need the Clips to move on from Westbrook in the offseason to secure a role again.

⚡G League Lightning Round⚡

Cam Whitmore

23 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-7 2PT | 3-3 FT | 27 MIN

Ron Holland II

18 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 6 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 9-17 2PT | 0-2 FT | 30 MIN

Gradey Dick

2 PTS | 0-6 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1-6 2PT | 34 MIN

Izan Almansa

22 PTS | 10 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 9-10 2PT | 2-4 FT | 27 MIN

Orlando Robinson

21 PTS | 17 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 9-12 2PT | 2-5 FT | 34 MIN

Patrick Baldwin Jr.

17 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 10 REB | 2 AST | 4 BLK | 4-5 2PT | 24 MIN

Tyler Smith

15 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 6-12 2PT | 0-1 FT | 25 MIN

Colby Jones

20 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 4-10 2PT | 2-2 FT | 39 MIN

Amari Bailey

18 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 6-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 25 MIN

Wendell Moore Jr.

18 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 4 STL | 1 BLK | 4-10 2PT | 2-2 FT | 39 MIN

Isaiah Wong

30 PTS | 6-9 3PT | 2 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 5-10 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN

Jacob Toppin

30 PTS | 4-9 3PT | 8 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-11 2PT | 3-3 FT | 39 MIN

Colin Castleton

27 PTS | 12 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 10-11 2PT | 4-4 FT | 26 MIN

Terquavion Smith

25 PTS | 4-11 3PT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 5-6 2PT | 2-2 FT | 35 MIN

Jordan Miller

23 PTS | 4-6 3PT | 3 REB | 2 STL | 5-9 2PT | 1-1 FT | 34 MIN

Ricky Council IV

20 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 6 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 3-3 FT | 37 MIN

Seth Lundy

18 PTS | 4-7 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1-5 2PT | 4-4 FT | 35 MIN

Oscar Tshiebwe

15 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 17 REB | 2 AST | 6-12 2PT | 2-5 FT | 29 MIN

Miles Norris

10 PTS | 2-7 3PT | 7 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 2-7 2PT | 32 MIN

Jalen Slawson

8 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 2-4 FT | 34 MIN