📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 24 2023📈 (Patreon)

A belated Happy Thanksgiving to all.

With no NBA games on Thursday, here’s a breakdown of the top prospects’ performances from the huge 14-game slate on Wednesday. PLUS, all the notable lines from Wednesday’s G League games.

WAS 114 @ CHA 117

🔸Mark Williams with 11 PTS, 15 REB and 3 BLK in 35 minutes - we knew that he’d have big rebound and block numbers but the minutes have been huge in the last four games (32.5 mpg). He’ll be a top 50 producer with this kind of role.

🔸Brandon Miller went 3-6 behind the arc and now sits at a modest 33.9 3PT% on 46th percentile volume. His midrange game has been outstanding (82nd percentile efficiency on big volume) but we need to see more outside shooting nights like this one as his rookie season progresses.

🔸A quiet 19 minutes for Bilal Coulibaly who also injured his ankle at the end of the game - don’t expect big starter’s minutes until the Wizards going into full tank mode in the second half.

DEN 119 @ ORL 124

🔸All of the underlying numbers suggested a Franz Wagner breakout performance was coming and here we are - a season-high 27 points driven by 10-14 shooting inside of the arc and 4-4 from the free throw line. The Magic are looking like a playoff team and Franz’s defensive performance (96th percentile Defensive EPM) has been a huge driving factor.

🔸Paolo Banchero hit 4 of 5 three pointers and has 7 blocks in his last four games. The outside shooting has been a huge development - 45.5% from three, largely driven by more selective shooting.

🔸Christian Braun continues to trend up in Jamal Murray’s absence (13 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 21 MIN). His shooting has been the big development - 8 for 10 from three across the last four games and shooting 42.9% on the season.

MIL 116 @ BOS 119

🔸MarJon Beauchamp (22 minutes, 5 points) hasn’t taken the step forward that we wanted to see this season but I continue to be intrigued by Andre Jackson Jr. (8 minutes, 7 PTS, 1-1 3PT). He’s 4-8 from three this season and would be the Bucks best perimeter defender if inserted into the lineup. Stash him in 250+ rostered leagues.

🔸The Celtics are light on prospects on their NBA roster, but make sure you check out the line from JD Davison in the G League last night (listed below). Younger than many rookies at 21 years old, he’s an explosive athlete with a strong fantasy stat set.

MIA 129 @ CLE 96

🔸Jaime Jaquez Jr. with the best game of his young career - 22 PTS | 4-4 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 4-5 FT in 28 minutes. Jaime would have been a lottery pick if he demonstrated this kind of shooting at UCLA. He’s shooting 41.3% from outside on average volume and looking like a long-term starter for the Heat.

🔸 Craig Porter Jr. started and showed out again - 16 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 5 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK. It would be criminal for him to be outside the rotation once the Cavs are healthy and they need to get him on a full roster contract.

🔸 Orlando Robinson lost the backup C job to Thomas Bryant in the preseason but has outplayed him since. This is the kind of stat-stuffing line we’ve come to expect from Robinson - 14 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK in 28 minutes. He should be rostered in 225+ player leagues.

TOR 132 @ IND 131

🔸 Scottie Barnes with a casual double-double and four steals. The 3PT volume and efficiency have jumped way up (38.2 3PT% on nearly double last year’s volume) and he’s become an elite help defender (100th percentile [!!!] Defensive EPM). A lock for All-Star.

🔸 Gradey Dick and Isaiah Jackson were DNP-CDs and all of the Pacers’ youngsters were down in the G League (check out that big line for Jarace Walker).

BKN 145 @ ATL 147

🔸 The Nets have been feeding Day’Ron Sharpe consistent rotation minutes since Claxton returned and he’s delivered. 6 PTS | 7 REB | 2 STL | 1 BLK in only 14 minutes. Sharpe is arguably the best per-minute rebounder in the league.

🔸 A “slow” night for Jalen Johnson - but his 40(!!) minutes show how secure his starting role is and he stacked 3 STL+BLK again. The defensive metrics back up the eye test - Jalen is one of the best young defenders in the league.

MEM 91 @ HOU 111

🔸 After struggling through the worst efficiency in the league inside the arc all season, Jalen Green exploded in this one - going 6-8 at the rim and 4-5 from midrange. More flashes of this version of Jalen are what we need to see to keep hope alive for his highest-end outcomes as a prospect.

🔸 Jabari Smith Jr.’s usage is still below 20% but I love the efficiency gains we are seeing - 72.2% at the rim (59.3% last season), 47.4% from midrange (40.8% last season), and 36.5% from three (30.7% last season). The box scores stats aren’t eye-popping but he’s on track as a 20 year-old prospect.

🔸A low-scoring night from Alperen Şengün (11 PTS) but he’s now hit a three in four consecutive games and his 3 blocks were a season-high. If the shot blocking returns even to last year’s levels, Şengün could be a top 20 producer this season.

🔸 A quiet night in a blowout for Santi Aldama - 8 PTS in 22 minutes. I’d write this one off - the shot volume was way lower than his prior seven games and should bounce back.

PHI 99 @ MIN 112

🔸Finally - the Paul Reed game we’ve been waiting for. We had to endure Marcus Morris starting, but 26 minutes of Reed meant we got 2 steals, 4 blocks, and a near double-double. He’ll likely go back to being just a straight backup to Embiid but this per-minute mastery is why you hold on to him for the future.

🔸 No Josh Minott or Leonard Miller in the rotation with Jaden McDaniels out. The Wolves can’t afford to bring Kyle Anderson back this offseason, so their time is coming.

SAC 112 @ NOR 117

🔸 Dyson Daniels started again and played 29 minutes but McCollum’s impending return will relegate him to a smaller rotation role. The underlying numbers are showing growth - an improved 89th percentile steal rate and a huge leap in his midrange efficiency (98th percentile - 58.8%). I still think he becomes a long-term starter in his prime.

🔸 Jordan Hawkins went 2-8 from three in 21 minutes which should be around his usual role even when CJ returns. His 94th percentile 3PT volume is a fantastic indicator for his career trajectory - he looks like he’ll live up to all of the hype as a shooting prospect.

LAC 109 @ SAS 102

🔸After having only one shot at the rim in the Spurs’ last game, Victor Wembanyama went 5-7 at the rim against the Clippers and protected the rim at the defensive end with three blocks. The best is yet to come with Victor and games like that this (22 PTS, 15 REB) flash that superstar upside.

🔸It’s been a rough stretch for Jeremy Sochan - adapting to playing point guard is the hardest growth curve in the league - but this is a preview of the future. 19 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST and 5-6 from the free throw line. There will be growing pains but Sochan is worth the wait.

CHI 102 @ OKC 116

🔸I say this in every report - but how right were we on Chet Holmgren? 18 PTS, 13 REB, 1 STL and 4 BLK and he’s getting to the free throw line at a superstar rate and converting (8-11 in this game, 88.9 FT% on the season). It’s getting harder and harder to view Chet as anything less than a top 10 dynasty asset.

🔸It’s been a rough start for Josh Giddey on the court but here’s why my long-term projection on him isn’t really changing. He’s suffering from a smaller on-ball role (64.9 touches per game compared with 76.7 last season), passing fewer times per-game, and suffering from a cold streak at the rim. The rest of the underlying numbers look the same as last season and he just turned 21 years old - his ceiling as a fantasy player has not changed. I’m holding and waiting to see how this plays out.

🔸 Chicago leaned back into the Patrick Williams experience with a team-leading 37 minutes, and the returns were underwhelming. 10 PTS, 7 REB, and no defensive stats. I’m not giving up entirely but the ceiling is much lower than we hoped for.

🔸Cason Wallace continues to play veteran-level defense with the smallest offensive role possible (10.4% usage, 5th percentile). I think the role expands exponentially in his prime - OKC is just maximizing what young prospects do best.

UTA 105 @ POR 121

🔸Welcome back, Scoot! Seven assists in only 17 minutes. Have patience as he navigates the rough life on an NBA point guard. Like so many before him, the second half of the season will be much more forgiving and Year 2 will be a breakout.

🔸 Keyonte George’s best scoring game as a starter - 16 PTS, 3-6 3PT, 7 AST, and 7-7 from the free throw line. His defense is atrocious but that’s expected for a rookie guard being forced into big minutes on a poor defensive roster.

🔸What a performance from Jabari Walker - 19 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 10 REB | 2 STL. His plus-rebounding allows him to play small ball center and he’s destined to put up some huge lines during the Blazers’ inevitable tanking stretch in the second half.

GSW 115 @ PHO 123

🔸I loved Brandin Podziemski in the pre-draft process but didn’t think he could crack the Warriors’ rotation as a rookie - I was wrong. Three steals in 23 minutes and quickly becoming a favorite of Steve Kerr - this kid is going to be a starting point guard across his prime.

🔸Maybe I’m also wrong on Jonathan Kuminga. Huge opportunity with Draymond out and CP3 ejected and flatlined in 21 minutes. He’s still young but this isn’t the Year 3 we hoped for after an amazing preseason.

DAL 104 @ LAL 101

🔸Dereck Lively II hurt his back late in this one after a rough fall on an attempted alley-oop. Hopefully he’s ok. Before his exit, it was a quiet game but notable that zero fouls in 19 minutes of action. Once he figures out how to avoid fouling, his numbers are going to be a lot more consistent.

🔸Jaden Hardy is stuck in a minor bench role (7 MIN, 2 PTS) as Kidd continues to work Dante Exum (9 MIN) into the rotation as well. Eventually, the Mavericks have to realize that Hardy’s development is necessary to developing a consistent winning team around Luka, but apparently they haven’t gotten there yet.

🔸Austin Reaves (17 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 6-9 2PT | 31 MIN) has emerged from a slow start and is picking up where he left off in the second half and playoffs last season. He’s more than doubled his steal rate this year and nearly doubled his rebound rate - if those hold, he’ll be significantly better than we projected.

⚡G League Lightning Round⚡

Jarace Walker

30 PTS | 0-7 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 12-16 2PT | 3-5 FT | 35 MIN

Cam Whitmore

25 PTS | 5-11 3PT | 8 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 2-2 FT | 33 MIN

Jett Howard

34 PTS | 7-16 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 4-6 2PT | 3-4 FT | 34 MIN

Noah Clowney

10 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 14 REB | 4 AST | 3-4 2PT | 3-3 FT | 37 MIN

Nikola Jovic

7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 1-6 2PT | 1-2 FT | 26 MIN

Dalen Terry

15 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 4 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 6-10 2PT | 0-1 FT | 31 MIN

Ben Sheppard

12 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 3-7 2PT | 19 MIN

Dariq Whitehead

10 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 3-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 23 MIN

Julian Phillips

29 PTS | 5-9 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK | 4-8 2PT | 3-4 FT | 28 MIN

Oscar Tshiebwe

20 PTS | 28 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 8-13 2PT | 2-4 FT | 34 MIN

Adama Sanogo

26 PTS | 14 REB | 1 BLK | 10-16 2PT | 3-3 FT | 29 MIN

JD Davison

38 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 8 AST | 1 STL | 13-19 2PT | 6-9 FT | 38 MIN

Amari Bailey

12 PTS | 6 REB | 5 AST | 3 STL | 4-11 2PT | 2-2 FT | 28 MIN

Jalen Wilson

20 PTS | 4-8 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1-5 2PT | 4-4 FT | 30 MIN

Terquavion Smith

23 PTS | 6-13 3PT | 6 REB | 1 STL | 1-2 2PT | 1-1 FT | 29 MIN

Jordan Walsh

5 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1-5 2PT | 0-1 FT | 28 MIN

Ricky Council IV

31 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 13-17 2PT | 3-4 FT | 38 MIN