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Radio War Nerd #276 — The Year of Overdemonizing Dangerously (Patreon)

Published:
2021-04-17 03:06:26
Imported:
2023-06

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Recorded: April 13, 2021

The War Nerd returns to the Motherland to discuss the latest in war news: Afghanistan withdrawal announcement, China and "overdemonization", and further observations on late imperial dementia...

Check out the new Radio War Nerd Merch store here!

Total time: 1:38:34

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

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Comments

Matt

John how're you doing with side effects so far?

Ellen Harold

This is one of the best episodes.

Anonymous

You guys must know John Dowers book: "War without Mercy: Race and Power in the Pacific War"? I remember his comment to the effect that for all the viciousness of US opinion WRT Japan, the most remarkable thing was how quickly it escalated, and later, how quickly it went away. Another more recent book I like is Stephen Wertheim's "Tomorrow the World: The Birth of US Global Supremacy". It focus is on 1939-1941, and Roosevelt's belief that Germany posed an existential threat to the global system. He details the means by which American isolationism was discredited in popular thought, and how "multilateralism" was constructed so as not to impede the US use of power after the war. Finally this from March. Sounds like if you're on a budget, talk is the cheapest form of deterrent: Opeoing comments of Congressman Adam Smith (D-WA), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee at the first Force Posture Hearing (on the Indo-Pacific), Mar 10 2021. "As mentioned we are here to do our posture hearing for the Indo-Pacific command and the Indo-Pacific region. This is an incredibly important part of the world as China is without question the largest national security challenge and competitor that we have in the world today, and I think it's not an overstatement to say that how the next 50 years goes for this globe is going to be significantly impacted by how we manage that relationship with China; how we meet the challenges that they present in many areas, but certainly in the Indo-Pacific region; and I really welcome the opportunity to have a conversation with with our witnesses today who are so expert on that subject. "There is no doubt that the problem with China has grown in the last decade. They are looking to export an ideology, an authoritarian ideology, and they are also looking to diminish our influence in the world. There are a number of different challenges here, but overwhelmingly I just want to make it clear I think it is incredibly important that the United States stay present in the Indo-Pacific region so that we can be there to work with our partners and allies to make sure that a rules-based system holds sway in that region; and that China is not able to crush it and take a hegemonic approach instead. "Central to this in my view are the partnerships that we have in the region. Certainly we can have influence, but the stronger nations like like India and Japan and South Korea and Thailand and the Philippines and others are, the stronger our partnership is, the more we can continue to enforce that rule of law and make sure that there's a fair balance of power in the region. It is enormously important that we do that now as we move forward. I also want to make sure that we don't stumble into a Cold War with China, and you know i'll be interested to hear more from our witnesses [on] how to do this, but I want us to be strong enough to deter China. "The idea that we can build a military large enough and strong enough to dominate China in the modern world is not realistic, and is fraught with danger. So I hope we can better understand how to make the proper investments. and that's one big point. I was very pleased to work in a bipartisan way, and last session to create the Indo-Pacific Defense Initiative that's incredibly important to build partnerships going forward; and I know that it is going to have to be funded, but I want to make sure that we are making wise investments in that we have far more demands for DOD money than we have money. So we're going to have to make some tough choices to figure out what's the best way to spend it, what's the wisest way to live with that. "As some of you might have heard, I drew an analogy to the NFL salary cap recently. You know, basically you put together a team; you got to meet all these different responsibilities, but you got one cap on how much money you can spend; and if you spend it all in one area, then the other area will be too weak to accomplish your overall objective. So i'm trying to strike that balance, and obviously the other big challenge in the region is North Korea. Definitely look forward to hearing from General Abrams about that challenge: what he thinks our best approach is going forward. "I just want to close again by emphasizing I think the most important thing we can do in the region is build partnerships, and build partner capacities. There are a lot of countries in that part of the world that are sympathetic to where we're coming from, that want to work with work with us. We need to take advantage of that; build those those partnerships as strong as they possibly can be, and build the capacity of those partners."

Thomas Sankara

The role of Silicon Valley and Wall Street in the China situation is important as well. SV and by extension Wall Street are keenly aware that they have been technologically lapped. China is developing 6G telecoms while the US only has 4G (per most telecoms analysts our 5G is fake). China has the most advanced AI research and AI capabilities. China also has the most advanced mobile payment processing systems. The only sector where US has an edge is semiconductors but that won’t last long. SV knows it can’t compete with Chinese multinationals so war, destruction and plunder is really the only option left on the table in their view.

Thomas Sankara
>>58000615

Given that the beltway is subservient to Apple, Facebook, Google, Amazon I don’t think it would be a stretch of the imagination if they went to war on their behalf.

Anonymous

Re: Upstate vs. Downstate New York These terms have legal significance in the mortgage industry as the laws on foreclosure differ between the two regions.

etienne
>>58002098

does "downstate" mean the exact same thing as "NYC" or is "downstate" a shorthand for "the hamptons" edit: oh wait I misread you. wheres the geographic boundary?

a clash of purple
>>58000615

Don't American tech companies need China to make all their crap, though? I have a hard time imagining how fighting China could ever be profitable for them, even assuming America could win, which I seriously doubt.

Dan Greene
>>58002098

Upstate is all of New York State north of NYC. Nobody really says downstate in conversation.

Thomas Sankara
>>58000615

Yes that’s another contradiction in all of this as well. American firms are dependent on the cheap labor, American consumers are dependent on the cheap consumer goods, Chinese firms are dependent on dollars and the US gov’t is dependent on foreign buyers of US treasury bonds (at least for now).

David Andrews

I know you were pressed for time in commenting on the declared US withdrawal from Afghanistan. But I was surprised that you overlooked the Afghanistan Papers which proved that the entire effort was a known failure for years and that everyone involved was lying about our chances for "success".

a clash of purple
>>58033970

To be fair, everyone else in the world overlooked it too. It really goes to show why there's so little real journalism done in the world, because who's paying attention. Why risk getting blown up by a landmine or decapitated by Sunni militiamen or machine-gunned by coup forces when the most attention your articles will ever get is maybe being mentioned on a podcast thirty years later. Much better to be a spineless mouthpiece for people with power.

Anonymous
>>57991972

I see now that Stephen Wertheim is the director of the "Grand Strategy" program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Jason Thompson
>>57991972

War Without Mercy was a fascinating book, though it’s been 20 years since I read it. Apart from an anecdote about how the WW2 anti-Japanese focus may have pushed liberal American policy makers to try to be less racist toward Black people, I chiefly remember his points about the flexibility of racial stereotypes based on the imperial/political situation; wonder if he has revisited this topic or how the book is viewed nowadays.

Anonymous
>>57991972

Sometime around 2004-9, I attended a musicology lecture at CUNY Grad Center, and in its midst noted that I really ought to mention Dower. It wasn’t but three minutes later that the lecturer cited the book. (I’m sorry I don’t recall more specifics.) Given it’s publication date, those who read it when it first came out haven’t yet retired, so there’s a good chance it’s still assigned.

Anonymous

It's clear that the US has no plan vis a vis the "defense" of Taiwan from China, but I don't think China does either to take it. John mentioned previously in a recent episode how China would not invade in a conventional way. Then how could they potentially capture Taiwan? No matter what, it would necessarily be a hostile takeover.

Anonymous

Really enjoyed the conversation as always, but was struck by something Mark said at the end when comparing the Soviets to China. I agree that the comparison is completely off, and that China is completely different, but one specific thing Mark said caught my attention. He used the framing that the Soviet Union primarily collapsed because the Russian elites wanted to get unimaginably wealthy, and that isn't an issue in China, in part because they already are. I was wondering how that analysis marries up with stories like Jack Ma, and his very public clashes with the Chinese government. It seems to me that there is a division between industrial leaders and the government. I'm no expert on the story at all, but it seems like in essence Chinese industrialists are no different than any others. Eventually you want to call all the shots. It seems to me like it's a very important story.

a clash of purple
>>58177619

Well, who actually rules the PRC? Is it ideological communists or is it the same kind of self-serving bourgeoisie as any Western country? Does anyone know for sure?

Doug Cartel

We try to avoid demonizing *too much*

Anonymous

Adrian Zheng did NOT write this. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/04/21/this-manitoba-couple-lived-in-xinjiang-for-10-years-they-can-no-longer-stay-silent-about-what-they-saw.html

a clash of purple
>>58241294

RWN has done at least two episodes interviewing people about the situation in Xinjiang. Nobody is denying that it's very bad and scary. But it's not a genocide, it's hypocritical for the West to call out the PRC's crimes while refusing to acknowledge their own, and the only reason the media is squawking about the treatment of Uyghurs in China as opposed to, say, the treatment of black U.S. citizens or indigenous peoples in the Americas or refugees in Europe or Kurds in Turkey is to try and ramp up the already-dangerous tensions between the PRC and the United States.

Anonymous
>>58241294

Then can you please enlighten my ignorance as to what genocide is then?

a clash of purple
>>58241294

To me at least, genocide means a campaign of extermination. Like what Islamic State does to its victims, or Nazi Germany to its victims, or the United States at certain points to certain indigenous peoples, etc.. The Uyghurs aren't being wiped out, they're being overpoliced. It's much closer to the U.S.'s treatment of black Americans or Israel's treatment of Palestinians, not, say, Islamic State's policy towards the Yazidi. Frankly, it's not even as bad as previous historical treatment of Uyghurs in China, when the communists basically banned Islam, destroyed all the mosques, and killed clerics. The Uyghurs aren't getting it as bad as the Kurds in Turkey, who regularly get shelled by artillery and so on. But even the Turkish Kurds aren't suffering a genocide.

Anonymous
>>58000615

Its not the US that has the edge in Semiconductors, its Taiwan. (at least for production) The current microchip shortage is because production problems there. Thats also why I disagree with the War Nerd here, US Big Tech corporations care very much about Taiwan

Sam Zeng

Look its a genocide in that a culture is being destroyed. With that being said there are strains of Islamic fundamentalism with in the most vocal Uighur minority. A lot Uighurs joined ISIS in Syria and have attacked Han people in Xinjiang, no doubt Chinese crackdown will heighten recruitment. Now the most vocal "humanitarian" voices in the west want to see China transformed away from the CPC and the concerns of the Uighurs are really secondary. This conflict has been going on for a decade now and only really in the past year has it received attention. In other words pure consent manufacturing

Anonymous
>>58241294

@Scorched Earth Here's the original definition as explained by Lemkin: "Generally speaking, genocide does not necessarily mean the immediate destruction of a nation, except when accomplished by mass killings of all members of a nation. It is intended rather to signify a coordinated plan of different actions aiming at the destruction of essential foundations of the life of national groups, with the aim of annihilating the groups themselves. The objectives of such a plan would be disintegration of the political and social institutions, of culture, language, national feelings, religion, and the economic existence of national groups, and the destruction of the personal security, liberty, health, dignity, and even the lives of the individuals belonging to such groups. Genocide is directed against the national group as an entity, and the actions involved are directed against individuals, not in their individual capacity, but as members of the national group." http://www.derechos.org/nizkor/impu/lemkin.html For genocide, under Lemkin's definition, the intent of the state matters more than any specific actions. Often we refer to genocide as the specific atrocities that are committed in execution of it--mass murder, ethnic cleansing, sterilization--but genocide is itself broader. I think people get naturally squeamish at the idea of "degrees of genocide," but Lemkin began thinking about the definition of genocide before the Holocaust. He was initially thinking about the experience of Armenians in Turkey and Assyrians in Iraq in 1933. The way I look at genocide is by asking about how the state views an ethnic, racial, or religious group and how the state hopes that groups ends up. Even if the United States did not engage in wars and mass population transfers against Native Americans, it still would have committed genocide with deliberate efforts to eradicate Native American culture and identity. There doesn't have to be a holocaust. In response to @a clash of purple's point, you certainly could make a case that Turkish policies to Kurds are genocidal. Or that there has been a Palestinian genocide. Genocide is a broad category with many crimes within it.

Mark Ames
>>58177619

Neil, that's a good point and requires a longer response. It's similar in a sense to modern Russia, where they can get obscenely rich but they can't challenge Putin's political power. That's what led Khodorkovsky to try to engineer a sort of regime change against Putin, which he lost. But it was the oligarchy that put Putin into power in the first place. But to my point, the Soviet nomenklatura and children of nomenklatura loathed the system because power didn't buy them anything compared to people in western countries they were able to visit. They couldn't get rich, couldn't live like elites in other countries, and were angry and ashamed of a system that flattened out wealth and consumerism. Where there are billionaires there's always going to be struggle with government depending on how strong the government's power is and how independent it is from the billionaires. It's a very different dynamic than the Soviet dynamic in the 80s.

Mark Ames
>>58241294

Speaking of Adrian Zenz and the aforementioned "Manitoba couple which has no relationship to Adrian Zenz". Bonus points for appearing with National Endowment for Democracy-funded Mehmet Tohti. Surely this is a coincidence. https://twitter.com/CMHR_News/status/1385334237931446275

Anonymous

"Look its a genocide in that a culture is being destroyed." It's debatable whether a culture is being destroyed, but even if it was this is NOT a genocide. It's a real horrible inflation of the term which really diminishes the victims of *actual* genocide.