USS Columbia-class Update (Patreon)

Patreon Exclusive:

Source: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106292

I've been diving into the construction of the new SSBN called 'Columbia-class.' Alarmingly, Electric Boat has over promised a rushed construction schedule using a Monte Carlo project management method with data that is unverified because this is the first of a kind construction.

Monte Carlo uses Triangle diffusion model that takes best estimates and worse case and mathematically finds a middle ground for construction time. This is the equivalate of throwing two darts at a dart board and dividing their values by half. Creating a Triangle.

If you have a lot of data, this methods increases in accuracy. But, there is no data for the Columbia class build. So it's the mathematical 'most likely grouping' of two guesses.

Either the Electric Boat project managers don't understand project management or they think the US Navy doesn't.

EB says they can build this new SSBN in 78 months, 10 months faster than the first Virginia class and the first Ohio class. There is no evidence that this is likely.

And, a rushed schedule like this was not needed to win the contract bid. EB was going to get this contract because the other nuclear submarine shipbuilder doesn't have availability.

Much of this program is shrouded by classification, so there is not much public data for me to share other than the attached schedule below.

Bottom Line: We will not see the Columbia SSBN commissioned into the US Navy this decade.

Edit: Grammar fix. wow, I am bad at words.