UFC 296 Full Card Breakdown & Predictions (Patreon)

Welterweight, Leon Edwards (21-3) vs. Colby Covington (17-3):

Covington definitely got this title fight because of other reasons than actually deserving it. Covington hasn't had a quality win in five years. His last three wins were to washed-up fighters in Lawer and Woodley and also one of the most overrated fighters of all time, Jorge Masvidal. Although with that said Covington is a huge threat, especially with his wrestling and endless gas tank. Edwards has shown every time he fights a good wrestler he gets taken down. Edwards may get taken down but he's never been put away and he does a great job at getting back up. Edwards has more of an advantage on the feet than Covington does on the mat. Edwards already beat a better version of Covington in Edwards twice. I like Edwards in this fight just because I think Covington simply isn't on the same level.

Flyweight, Alexandre Pantoja (26-5) vs. Brandon Royval (15-6) II:

This is a rematch from two years ago where Pantoja won by submission in round two. Royval does deserve this fight as he's been on a roll and putting on entertaining fights. Last fight Pantoja controlled him on the mat as his jiujitsu was just on another level. His best chance is to draw Pantoja into a brawl and catch him with something. It's possible too because Pantoja is down to just trade in the pocket. It's dangerous for Royval too because Pantoja is dangerous on exchanges and has that hidden power. I don't think anything has changed from the last time they fight so I see Pantoja winning.

Welterweight, Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0) vs. Stephen Thompson (17-6-1):

I'm surprised Thompson agreed to take this fight because Shavkat is a terrible match-up for him. I'd expect Rakhmonov to just wrestle early to not try out his luck on the feet. I do think he'd do very well on the feet but he has too big of an advantage in the wrestling and grappling. As good as Thompson is I'd be surprised if he wins this fight. I'm very confident Rakhmonov will dominate this fight until he finishes Thompsod. If Belal can bully Thompson on the mat, Shavkat sure will.

Lightweight, Tony Ferguson (25-9) vs. Paddy Pimblett (20-3):

It's sad how Ferguson is such a shell of himself lately. He's so bad right now that he's most likely losing to Pimblett. I don't think Pimblett is terrible but I don't view him as a top-15 lightweight. There isn't a lot to say about this fight as I just think Pimblett overwhelms Ferguson. Sure, a few years ago Ferguson would steamroll Pimblett. Nowadays, Ferguson would go life and death with Jordan Leavitt. I do see Pimblett pressuring Ferguson, landing takedowns, controlling in the clinch, and landing the bigger shots on the feet. I hope I'm wrong though.

Flyweight, Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2) vs. Cody Durden (16-4-1):

As much as I don't like Durden he's protected his style to a tee. That style is pressure, wrestling, and cardio. Even his hands have gotten better. Ulanbekov is a wrestler as well but he better have his wrestling shoes ready because Durden is gonna bring it. Ulanbekov has been out-wrestled before which makes me confident Durden can do that. Not a lot to say about this fight instead I believe Durden is a better wrestler/grappler with a better gas tank. I like Durden by decision.

Bantamweight, Irene Aldana (14-7) vs. Karol Rosa (17-5):

Aldana had such a terrible performance in her last outing. If you act like that didn't happen this is her fight to lose. She's a much better striker and I think that's all she needs to beat Rosa. As long as Aldana just doesn't stand there she should clear this fight.

Flyweight, Casey O'Neill (9-1) vs. Ariane Lipski (16-8):

Both ladies have had different UFC careers. O'Neill started off hot in her UFC career but her last two fights she didn't look too good at all. Lipski has been a bust since coming to the UFC but has won her last two looking at her best. O'Neill will wanna use her wrestling because on the feet she's uncomfortable. In her last two fights, Lipski defended 19/19 takedowns. It's WMMA so it's a tough one to predict but Lipski seems like a bad match-up for O'Neill.

Welterweight, Randy Brown (17-5) vs. Muslim Salikhov (19-4):

I didn't expect to lean Salikhov in this fight but I am. Brown has the length to give problems but I expect Salikhov to push through. Salikhov closes distance quickly and I can see him putting Brown on stilts if he connects clean. Salikhov could be more combo heavy but has fast reactions with no load up. I think Salikhov can beat Brown to the punch and wobble him a few times. Yeah, Brown could stifle him from range but I got Salikhov is here.

Light-heavyweight, Alonzo Menifield (14-3-1) vs. Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1):

Both these guys favor each others style so it should be a good fight. Both guys like to stand and trade looking for the kill. Menifield has more knockout power but Jacoby has never been knocked out. The last time he's been stopped by strikes was in 2014. On the other side Menifield has been knocked out but is still hard to put away. In a pure striking fight I'd favor the Glory kickboxer on Jacoby. Menifield is wild in his striking. As that's fine and all I favor a more technical guy like Jacoby who's gonna mix it up. I like Jacoby by TKO either in the second round or by decision.

Bantamweight, Cody Garbrandt (13-5) vs. Brian Kelleher (24-14):

The question is, is Cody shot enough to where Kelleher can beat him? We all know Cody can't take a shot but Kelleher isn't known for his power. I don't think it takes much power to put out Cody at this point though. Kelleher is coming off two losses and over a year layoff. We seen Cody use more of his wrestling in his last fight. I believe we can see it again here since Kelleher has gaps in his TDD/ground game. Even on the feet, Garbrandt is much better. I'm banking on the chin to hold up and Cody gets the win.

Heavyweight, Shamil Gaziev (11-0) vs. Martin Buday (13-1):

Gaziev is one of the most promising prospects from this past season of the contender series. Buday is a good test but if Gaziev is as good as advertised he should win this fight. He should steamroll Buday but if this fight goes long it could be interesting. 

Featherweight, Andre Fili (22-10) vs. Lucas Almeida (14-2):

I'm not sure why Almeida is getting Fili after losing to Sabatini instead of getting a massive step down. If Flil comes in with a wrestling game plan he could potentially dominate this fight. Fili is an underrated wrestler and it's a gray area for Almeida. Almeida had some blown-up hype when he beat Trizano but it wasn't warranted. Almeida is dangerous on the feet but Fili is still the better striker. He'll use that jab, the movement, and have better defense where Almeida tends to take a lot of damage. I'm confident Fili wins by being the better fighter.

Featherweight, Josh Emmett (18-4) vs. Bryce Mitchell (16-1):

Emmett is done I believe. He has a lot of fight mileage, has lost his last two, and is 38. Mitchell is still young and in his prime. I think Mitchell will use his pressure and wrestling to make Emmett fight defensively the entire fight. I like Mitchell by decision.