UFC Breakdown (Patreon)

Bantamweight, Yadong Song (20-7-1) vs. Chris Gutierrez (20-4-2):

I'm a fan of Gutierrez as I wasn't expecting a lot when he came to the UFC. He's a really good striker/kickboxer who knows how to set the pace. Song is one of the top bantamweight as he's gotten better with each fight. I expect this fight to take place on the feet where both are comfortable. I'm more of a fan of the style of Gutierrez because of his ability to mix in his kicks. I do think he's gonna have problems with the power of Song. Gutierrez may do well off volume but I see Song winning off landing the more impactful shots. I am confident picking Song but I think it's gonna be a good fight.

Light-heavyweight, Anthony Smith (37-18) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (12-5):

Oh joy! Anthony Smith!! No, the dude sucks and I hate having to watch him. The good thing is Rountree will go at him, unlike Spann who has no urgency at all. Smith is completely shot at this point as he's fragile, slow, and sloppy. Yes, he's still dangerous and Rountree can get carried away but this is Rountree's fight to lose. I don't see Smith being able to handle the power and Rountree knocking him out at some point.

Flyweight, Sumudaerji (16-5) vs. Tim Elliott (19-13-1):

Sumudaerji is coming off a little over a year layoff after that crazy fight with Matt Schnell. He is a very good striker that throws laser straight punches and understands distance control. Elliott is taking this fight on short notice but I'm tired of seeing him. He is still a credible fighter being a veteran of the game. He's still solid, especially with his wrestling and ground game and that's where Sumudaerji struggles the most. I'd like to think Sumudaerji can use his superior striking and youth. I wouldn't bet it but I think Sumudaerji can put away Elliott early in the fight before Elliott can ground the fight.

Middleweight, André Muniz (23-6) vs. Jun Yong Park (17-5):

Muniz was a highly regarded middleweight at one point but he fell hard and fast. He is a jiu-jitsu ace but his wrestling lacks. Also, if he doesn't finish in about three minutes his cardio bares watching. As Muniz fails to have the basics Park has them all. Park is well-rounded. He's got a solid jab, is technical, goes to the body, and has power. Other than that Park can also grapple and can do it at a competent level. He's very dangerous at attacking the neck. Muniz has been declining so badly that I can't pick him. Park seems to be such a bad match-up for Muniz because he has a strong gas tank and can put his hands on him. I feel confident about Park and I believe he finds the finish.

Lightweight, Nasrat Haqparast (15-5) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (17-6):

This is a banger of a fight between two guys who just like to sling leather. I still can't get over the fact that Mullarkey got sparked by Muhammad Naimov who is a bum. It may have been a fluke but the damage is gonna start to show over time because he's been in wars. I do see Haqparast being able to knockout Mullarkey if he lands clean. I'm not sold that Mullarkey can will a scrap with someone that's tough, will come forward, and mix in body shots like Haqparast. I like Haqparast in this fight.

Flyweight, Hyun Sung Park (8-0) vs. Shannon Ross (13-8):

This is a layup of all layups. Ross is very bad and in fact, he's the worst flyweight on the roster. Some positives about him are he's high-paced, good volume, and he hits hard. All that said he's so bad defensively it cancels out what he does do well. Park has a high ceiling as he's a complete fighter. He's already beaten guys better than Ross so he should win this. I have Park by whatever he wants.

Flyweight, Tatsuro Taira (14-0) vs. Carlos Hernandez (9-2):

Taira is getting his toughest fight to date. Hernandez is a good fighter who has very good striking skills along with a ton of basics. I will say his two wins in the UFC are against non-UFC-level guys and I thought he clearly lost his contender series fight. If he can keep this fight standing he will end up beating Taira. Taira isn't just gonna stand across Hernandez as he's gonna be pressing hard to get the fight grounded. Hernandez has been taken down and has a tendency to give up his back which is even worse. Allan Nascimento in his fight with Hernandez shot in for a takedown and chained his way onto the back to get the RNC. I see a similar thing happening against Taira. I think the wrestling and grappling is too much for Hernandez to fend off for long.

Welterweight, Kenan Song (21-7) vs. Kevin Jousset (9-2):

Song is a UFC veteran so this is easily the toughest fight in the career of Jousset. With Song, he may be a tough outing but all the guys he's beaten are terrible. Four of the five guys that Song beat aren't even in the UFC. If Jousset can take this fight down he's be in a good position because his ground game is good enough. Jousset isn't a good wrestler but his judo is at least really good. Song hasn't really spent time on his back but that's cause he's fought mainly strikers. Song could very well defend takedowns and land the power shots on the feet. Jousset doesn’t move his head, is vulnerable to body shots, and his chin is questionable. I do think he can give Song issues on the outside especially with the leg kicks. I'm leaning towards Jousset because I think he can have success with the leg kicks, beat Song up in the clinch, and possibly take Song down and finish him.

Featherweight, Steve Garcia (14-5) vs. Melquizael Costa (20-6):

This fight should be a lot of fun between two fun strikers. Garcia has looked much better in the UFC since moving down to featherweight. the activity Costa has on the feet. He’s always throwing in groups and is never throwing the same strike back-to-back. He’ll go to the legs, body, and head frequently. He throws in volume and attacks from all angles and at all limbs. Garcia has solid striking as well as he throws with a lot of heat and throws good combinations. He can just be a little over-zealous and that could work out for Costa since he's a good counter striker. Garcia has gone out there and throw caution to the wind not worrying about defense but that's not smart here. I favor the technique and the chin of Costa more than I do Garcia. I also believe Costa can mix in takedowns as well. Both have poor TDD but Costa has better wrestling and BJJ. I like Costa because he has more weapons, a better chin, better defense, and better technique. I think he finds the chin of Garcia at some point.

Bantamweight, Stephanie Egger (8-4) vs. Luana Santos (6-1):

I was critical of the UFC signing Santos heading into her UFC debut. She may of won but it was against Juliana Miller of all people. Egger on the other hand is coming off a loss to Irina Alekseeva who is awful. If Alekseeva can catch Egger is a submission Santos can. Santos is a judo blackbelt but so is Egger. Santos is coming up in weightclass so she's gonna be outmuscled I'd imagine. Santos isn’t much on the feet. She has a good right hand but she has no volume, zero setups, and her defense is lackluster. She could give Egger problems but I see this fight taking place in the clinch and on the mat. I still think Santos is still too green to be fighting in the UFC. Although Egger isn't too good I believe she's the better grappler and stronger. If she can avoid getting caught in a submission she should cruise.

Bantamweight, Daniel Marcos (15-0) Vs. Carlos Vera (11-3):

I don't know why this fight is even happening because why is Vera in the UFC. Vera was a cast member on the last season of TUF and lost. Vera is an unorthodox fighter to deal with but from a technical standpoint, he’s not great. He has an awkward striking style and will just throw a lot of kicks and nothing with his hands. You can definitely tell he trains with Ryan Hall. Vera is a good grappler but more so in scrambles and flash submissions. Defensive grappling is better than his offensive grappling. Marcos has been impressive in his UFC run recently beating Davey Grant. This is a step down from Grant. strongly favor Marcos on the feet because he's more technical, has good footwork, better kickboxing, and more tools.

Strawweight, Rayanne dos Santos (14-6) vs. Talita Alencar (4-0-1):

I'm familiar with Santos due to her fight on the Contender Series last year. Althugh she lost that fight she did win her next three fights and won an Invicta title. The title was atomweight but in the UFC she will be at strawweight. Alencar fought on this past season of the CS and although it was a draw Dana still gave her a contract. Alencar is a jiu-jitsu ace who’s a BJJ black belt and has a lot of accomplishments. Like a lot of fighters that come from a BJJ ground game they struggle on the feet and Alencar does. Alencar is an open target on the feet and her wrestling is still green. Santos struggles with striking defense as well but offensively she's been much better. I'm confident her striking is better than Alencar's. Both girls are at their best on the mat. Alencar is more of a threat there but only early in the fight. If she don't get the finish early she will start to fade and Santos will take over. Santos has a huge advantage in cardio and I think it's what gives her the nod in this one.