UFC 295 Full-Card Breakdown (Patreon)

Light-heavyweight, Jiří Procházka (29-3-1) vs. Alex Pereira (8-2):

One of the most if not the most anticipated fights of the year for me. Two savages that can end the fight at anytime. Both are strikers and I don't see either taking each other down. If anyone were to do it it would be Jiri but I don't think anything would come out of it. It's the sheer power and timing of Pereira or the wild and unorthodox Prochazka. I'm seeing a lot of people picking Prochazka and I don't understand the confidence. He hasn't fought in over a year and is coming off a bad injury. To me it's more about his style. Prochazka fights carelessly with his hands low and chin out and has taken a lot of damage in all his fights. He's not taking damage like he has in his other fights against Pereira and surviving. Prochazka is a danger because he's like a tornado and has a variety of weapons. Pereira is more simple but has the one-shot knockout power. I think Prochazka is too vulrenrable on the feet against a guy that can sleep him easily. I like Pereira in this fight.

Heavyweight, Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) vs. Tom Aspinall (13-3):

This fight comes down to if Aspinall can get Pavlovich down before he gets knocked out. I do think if Aspinall gets the takedown he's finishing the fight. Pavlovich does have a bad-looking loss to Overeem but that was his UFC debut five years ago. He hasn't been taken down since but has only been shot on twice. I've seen Aspinall make some mistakes on the fight that could cost him on the feet. He sits in the pocket too long, he lunges forward with his chin in the air, and does leave himself exposed in exchanges. Pavlovich does all that as well but he has the power and chin not to worry about being as clean as Aspinall would need to. The popular pick is Aspinall and I understand it but I'm going, Pavlovich. The Russian is on a roll and I think if he can draw Aspinall into a brawl for a moment I think he gets the knockout.

Strawweight, Jéssica Andrade (24-12) vs. Mackenzie Dern (13-3):

Dern looked great last time out against Hill with vast improvements in her striking. With that said that's still where she's the weakest. As a legit BJJ fighter, it's known her wrestling isn't on the same level. Her takedown percentage is only 15%. Forcing to go toe to toe with Hill was tough but to do it against Andrade is a different danger. Andrade has lost her last three but it's been to the top women in the division. It depends on if Andrade is still at a high level or if she's on her decline.  This is a tough fight to call because you don't know what to expect from either. I'm slightly leaning towards Dern because she's riding a lot of momentum from her career performance last time out.

Featherweight, Pat Sabatini (18-4) vs. Diego Lopes (22-6):

This is a great fight between two very talented jiu-jitsu practitioners. If it comes down to a striking fight I favor Lopes heavily. Sabatini isn't much of a striker where Lopes has improved greatly. Lopes throws in volume and mixes up his attack. You will see Lopes actively land kicks to the lead leg, throw the jab, he has a sneaky good uppercut, and his right hand is a huge weapon. My biggest problem with Lopes is his willingness to fight off his back. He's really dangerous there but if he don't get the submission he's wasting time. That could be proven in this fight against Sabatini who is a high-level grappler. I do think Lopes can match the jiu-jitsu but will win this fight based of his striking. I think he finishes Sabatini by TKO.

Lightweight, Matt Frevola (11-3-1) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (12-1):

The UFC did a great job with this fight because this is awesome matchmaking. Both guys are willing to go out there and throw down willing to go out on their shield. It's weird that Frevola is on this good run but got knocked out by McKinney and Polo Reyes. BSD has yet to lose at lightweight and beating Moises last time out was impressive. I came in expecting to pick BSD but I'm going Frevola. Both guys like to stand in the pocket and let everything go and I favor the power of Frevola. BSD has heavier kicks but Frevola has heavy hands and better technique. Even though he hasn't showed it in a while Frevola can wrestle and can wrestle just as good as BSD. I see this fight ended with them throwing down and Fevola catching BSD and putting him away.

Flyweight, Joshua Van (8-1) vs. Kevin Borjas (9-1):

This is a complete mismatch as Van is clearly the better fighter. Van is very talented and already showed growth in his UFC debut with clearner striking. Borjas is awful and nowhere near UFC level. He hits hard and is explosive but Van is faster and just much clearer with more weapons. Borjas is flat-footed and loads up with everything he throws. His head movement lacks and Van will style on him. The TDD of Van is still questionable but Borjas isn't gonna be the one to test that. If anything, Van could use his wrestling and submit Borjas. Im picking Van and I'm extremely confident.

Lightweight, Jared Gordon (19-6) vs. Mark Madsen (12-1):

This is probably my least favorite fight on the card between two underwhelming guys. Madesn is an Olympic wrestler but he lacks jiu-jitsu and cardio. Gordan doesn't have the credentials but he's the better MMA wrestler. He also has the better BJJ and a much deeper gas tank. Where I think Godon can coast in this fight is on the feet. His striking is nothing great but it's serviceable. Madsen I wouldn't rate at all on the feet. He throws in singles and is low output. I think Gordon is better in every area in this fight.

Featherweight, Dennis Buzukja (11-3) vs. Jamall Emmers (19-7):

I see this fight as clear-cut. Buzukja will walk forward into the jab and counters from Emmers. From the outside Emmers will pick Buzukja apart. Buzukja won't be good enough to get takedowns so he will be forced to strike. Buzukja marches forward throwing a lot of heat. Buzukja would benefit so much more throwing straight punches instead of throwing hooks. He makes up for it with power and forward pressure. There aren’t many people he’s going to out-strike from a technical standpoint. That's Emmers to a tee and that's what he will do to Buzukja is just simply outstrike him.

Lightweight, Nazim Sadykhov (9-1) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3):

I'm a big fan of Borshchev and I root for him every time. I won't ignore that his TDD is awful and it's absurd that it hasn't seemed like he's tried to work on it at all. At least his grappling defense is solid and he does fine at working back to his feet. It's just like he's never sprawled a takedown in his life. His striking is so good that he's a danger to anyone who stands across from him. With Sadykhov he needs to wrestle. He has in in him but I don't rate his wrestling like I do the other guys that beat Slava. Sadykhov has power in his hands but is outgunned on the feet. He throws wild, throws himself off balance, and is vulnerable to straight punches and body shots. I don't think Sadykhov is the type of guy to neutralize Slava on the mat. He may be able to slow the pace but when the fight is upright the gap is too wide. I have Slava finding the body and taking the head in round two. I though I wouldn't be as confident but I am.

Strawweight, Tabatha Ricci (9-1) vs. Lupita Godinez (11-3):

I really like Godinez as a fighter. She can be inconsistent but she's a complete fighter. Ricci isn't complete by ann means but has legit BJJ. I'm not sold on her wrestling though as she's only taking down othh BJJ women who are okay going to their back. Godinez is the best striker Ricci has fought since she lost to Fiorot in her UFC debut. The gap is bigger on the feet favoring Godinez then it is on the mat favoring Ricci. Godinez may not have the better BJJ but she's the much better wrestler. I like Godinez in this fight. She's got a big advantage on the feet and can compete on the mat well-enough. I see Ricci having trouble getting takedowns because Godinez does have solid takedown defense.

Bantamweight, Kyung Ho Kang (19-9) vs. John Castañeda (20-6):

I doubted Kang in his last fight but he proved me wrong. He's always been underrated whereas Castaneda has been an overachiever. Castaneda isn't too good but he wins fights. In this fight Castaneda is outmatched. On the mat Kang is where he's best and he's much better than Castaneda there. Over the years Kang has showed he's not one-dimensional as he's very good on the feet. He's super technical. I love his jab and he has good vision firing slick counters. Castaneda is forwards pressure but isn't gonna outdo Kang with weapons. There is a chance Castaneda can find the knockout but Kang doesn't get knocked out. I believe Kang is better in every area in this fight.

Flyweight, Steve Erceg (10-1) vs. Alessandro Costa (13-3):

I love this fight between two dark horses in the division. Costa lost in his UFC debut to Albazi but no shame in that. He then got back on the board destroying Jimmy Flick. Erceg is 1-0 in the UFC beating Dvorak on short notice with a great performance. Both guys are legit grapplers so I see more of a striking fight in this one. Costa is more of a compact striker that throws hooks up top and to the body. He also has chopping leg kicks that could have an impact in this fight. I'd imagine Erceg with use his range to keep Costa at the end of his punches. I slightly favor Erceg to beat Costa striking. Erceg I believe will control the distance and beat Costa's hook with straight punches and counters. He's also gonna be moving a lot more whereas Costa is more stationary. I like Erceg but Costa is dangerous.

Lightweight, Mateusz Rebecki (18-1) Vs. Roosevelt Roberts (12-3):

I like that Roberts is back in the UFC but what a tough fight to take on short notice. I've been on the hype train of Rebecki for years so I'm pretty high on him. Rebecki started off a bit one-dimensional in his career being solely a grappler. He was an ADCC Polish gold medalist. Now he’s slowly developed a striking game, mainly with a lot of power. He’s just so dangerous on the mat and that’s on top or bottom. Roberts poses a threat and he has to get the finish on the feet. He's the much bigger fighter and he can use that on the feet. It's important for Rebeck to use his wrestling because that's where he's levels above. As much as I like Roberts he's been flaky in his career too much to trust him. I'm going with Rebecki by GNP.