UFC Sao Paulo: Predictions and Betting Advice on Each Fight (Patreon)

Lightweight, Kauê Fernandes (8-1) vs. Marc Diakiese (16-7):
Not sure why Fernandes is getting an established guy like Diakiese in his UFC debut. Diakiese is a talented fighter but he's just inconsistent. His fight IQ has continued to be a big problem for him in his career. Diakiese is an explosive guy on the feet but lately, it's been his wrestling he's been using more than anything. I'm sure Diakiese can take Fernandes down but he's gotta be careful of getting caught in a submission. On the feet, Diakiese beats him with speed, explosiveness, and athleticism. Fernandes is fully capable of catching Diakiese anywhere the fight goes. With that said I think it's a bad match-up for him and Diakiese wins a decision. For more, I posted a more in-depth piece on this fight.

Strawweight, Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (10-3) vs. Eduarda Moura (9-0):
Moura really impressed me in her contender series fight a few months ago. Yeah, she beat a bum but Ruiz is a bum as well. I don't see a path to victory for Ruiz at all. She's a grappler just like Moura is and Moura has the advantage in that area. Her wrestling is much better and so is her technique. Also, Moura is gonna be the much bigger fighter in this one. It's WMMA but Moura is a lock.

Strawweight, Angela Hill (15-13) vs. Denise Gomes (8-2):
Hill is coming off a bad loss getting outstruck by Dern. Gomes has been on a roll as she's won two in a row. Hill is a veteran who is much better than her record suggests. This is a big step up in competition for Gomes. Gomes has the power advantage but I always side with technical striking over just power. Hill has never been knocked out and I don't expect her to here. I'm pretty confident in Hill. Gomes isn't a threat to wrestle Hill and Hill is a much better striker. Hill by decision seems like an easy prediction.

Light-heavyweight, Vitor Petrino (9-0) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (15-5):
I'm fully rooting for Petrino because Bukauskas he's insanely boring. Even though he is boring he is a tough one to beat because his defense is good and can go three rounds no problem. He's low output but he puts his hands together nicely. Petrino is still green and very wild. On the feet he may be outstruck but he easily has the power advantage. He is just too wild with his striking throwing his body into everything he throws. In his UFC run he's been using his wrestling and last fight he got his first submission victory. I like that he's starting to grow and adapt his skillset instead of being just a wild striker. I think throughout the fight Petrino is gonna be more dangerous because he has the finishing ability. It depends if he can get the stoppage and if not, how his cardio holds up. I'm picking Petrino because I think the power and pressure will wear on Bukauskas but not confident at all. 

Welterweight, Elizeu Zaleski (24-7) vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov (22-2):
Zaleski is an underappreciated talent who doesn't get the respect he deserves. He has good wins including one over UFC middleweight champ, Sean Strickland. Rinat has all the attention because he's 3-0 in the UFC and coming off that big win over Kevin Lee. I think his wins are getting overblown. Lee is way past his prime, Battle is overrated, and Michailidis sucks. What he does bring to the table is good wrestling, heavy top position, and power in his hands. Fakhretdinov does have a good-looking MMA record but it is a blown-up record. Fourteen of his twenty-two wins were against opponents that had losing records or were debuting. Zaleski is proven and battle-tested. If he can't take Zaleski down he's in trouble. Rinat has deceptive power but it’s usually just looping punches and overhands he throws. Zaleski throws everything in the kitchen sink at who he's fighting. It comes down to if Rinat can get this fight down and I'm not sure if he can. If he can I don't think he can hold Zaleski down. Over the last few fights, Zaleski displayed excellent TDD and I think he can do good enough in this fight. I like this fight for Zaleski. I think he can fend off the takedowns, avoid the overhands, and his big advantage on the feet will show.

Bantamweight, Daniel Marcos (15-0) vs. Victor Hugo (24-4):
Hugo is making his UFC debut after winning on the contender series. Going from that to fighting Marcos is a big jump up in competition. Marcos has been impressive in his UFC run recently beating Davey Grant. This is a step down from Grant but Hugo is a much different matchup. Hugo is dangerous on the feet with his pressure and power. I strongly favor Marcos on the feet because he's more technical, has good footwork, better kickboxing, and more tools. Hugo has the advantage on the mat but so far the TDD of Marcos has held up. I'd be super impressed if Hugo won this fight.

Lightweight, Elves Brener (15-3) vs. Esteban Ribovics (12-1):
Holding off on doing this fight until we know for sure it's happening or not.

Lightweight, Ismael Bonfim (19-4) vs. Vinc Pichel (14-3):
Ismael is coming off his first loss in nine years. Although I was disappointed at the time, Benoit Saint-Denis has proved to be at a certain level. Bonfim is an incredible technical striker. Some of the sharpest boxing you will see from someone on the come-up. Bonfim has a good jab, excellent vision and shot placement, and is a nasty counter striker. Bonfim is so good offensively he's just as good defensively. He keeps his guard high and has wonderful in-fight adjustments. Pichel is a long-time veteran who is 40 but is very scrappy. He can compete still with the younger guys to a certain degree. There are a lot of guys he can still beat in the UFC. He's well-rounded enough and is well-conditioned. He's fighting a young hungry Brazilian that's gonna be much faster and explosive. Pichel is very gam like I said but Bonfim is on another level. He's much cleaner on the feet and if he wanted I think he could even submit Pichel. Pichel being 40 and barely fighting it's gonna catch up to him eventually.

Middleweight, Rodolfo Vieira (9-2) vs. Armen Petrosyan (8-2):

This is probably the hardest fight to call on the entire card. It's a classic striker vs grappler match. Petrosyan is the kickboxing but has struggled with takedown defense. He has yet to lose by submission though and has done a good job of getting back to his feet. Vieira isn't much of a wrestler but he just needs one takedown to find a submission. Vieira is more dangerous but the dude was seconds away from losing to Cody Brundage before Cody went for a stupid guillotine. Petrosyan is a good striker but he's just boring with not enough output. I'm slightly leaning towards Petrosyan because of the striking advantage. Vieira is 34 with limited wrestling and questionable cardio. If he can almost lose to Brundage he should lose this if Petrosyan presses a good pace and opens up.

Middleweight, Caio Borralho (14-1) vs. Abus Magomedov (25-5-1):
Magomedov needs a win to rebound after that shitty performance he put of last time against Strickland. I though Magomedov was pretty good but after his gas tank just collapsed so easy I'm completely off that train. The train I am on is Borralho. He gets crap for not having the killer instinct but I like him because he's well-rounded, composed, and has solid cardio. I believe Borralho is better in every area and it will show even more as the fight goes. Either a stoppage late in the fight or a decision by Borralho.

Heavyweight, Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (10-5):
Mayes is coming off a win against Arlovski but that's more saying where Arlovski is in his career. Mayes lost to Hamdy not long ago and that's such a bad look. Nascimento isn't too good either because he barely beat Latifi. This is actually a rematch from three years ago where Nascimento won by RNC. I don't see why the outcome this time would be any different. Neither progressed so I do think Nascimento gets the nod again.

Welterweight, Gabriel Bonfim (15-0) vs. Nicolas Dalby (22-4-1):
Gabriel is one of the brightest up-and-comers in the UFC's welterweight division. Dalby is a stern test as he's gonna show everyone how good Bonfim is. Dalby brings the pace, pressure, and volume. Bonfim is better in every area with the much better striking and the slicker BJJ. It just depends on how he deals with the pace if he can't get Dalby out of there early in the fight. Dalby takes a lot of damage and that is what I think catches up to him. If he's taking damage against guys in their upper thirties. In fact, since Dalby has been back in the UFC from 2019 to all seven of his opponents have been well over 30. This is his first time fighting a young explosive fighter and I think it shows in the speen and explosiveness. Dalby is tough but I think Bonfim finishes him.

Heavyweight, Jailton Almeida (19-2) vs. Derrick Lewis (27-11):
Lewis is always capable of getting that meme knockout. Anyone picking Lewis to win is just hoping he gets that lucky punch in. I see this fight going down in a similar way to the Spivac fight Lewis had. Spivac dominated getting six takedowns and the sub in round one. I believe it would just take one takedown from Almeida to end the fight because his BJJ is so good. I think Almeida gets the submission but I'll be nervous at the times it's on the feet.