Cage Warriors 161 Breakdown & Predictions (Patreon)

Featherweight: Paul Hughes (9-1) vs. Jan Quaeyhaegens (11-4):

Paul Hughes is finally back in the cage after nearly a year layoff. He's taking on a dangerous Quaeyhaegens who has won his last five. Going from beating a dude named Alberto Ciardo to fighting Paul Hughes is a crazy step up in competition. Quaeyhaegens is one of these action fighters we see that's gonna be the nail or the hammer. He's solid but there is questions if he's still defensively flawed. I'm positive Hughes will be able to take him down where he is much superior. I even think Hughes can outdo Quaeyhaegens on the feet outside of power. I'm picking Hughes by submission in round two and I'm very confident.

Featherweight, Ryan Shelley (6-1) vs. Jordy Bakkes (5-2-1):

I hate both Shelley brothers but putting that aside here because Bakkers is a complete bum. Nothing he does is notably good and he's poor defensively everywhere including his cardio. His takedown defense stinks and that's where I think Shelley will capitalize. I can easily see him getting the takedown, taking the back, and finishing with the RNC. As much as I dislike Shelley this is his fight to lose.

Featherweight, Solomon Simon (2-0) vs. Marko Sarasjärvi (3-0):

Both of these guys are young pros but had extensive amateur careers. Simon went 10-8 and Sarasjarvi went 8-5 so both were up and down. Simon has looked improved since going pro and Sarasjarvi did beat a guy in his last fight who was on my radar. Sarasjarvi is a slick grappler but his wrestling isn't too good. He lacks setups and shoots from too far out. Solomon has a nice advantage on the feet with his speed and movement. It's a close fight but I think Solomon has all the tools to win this. He has the advantage on the feet and his grappling and wrestling should be good enough to hang.

Middleweight, Paddy McCorry (3-1) vs. Samir Kadi (4-1):

We need good middleweight prospects and both these guys have potential. Both have concerns but there are more alarming concerns with Kadi. He's athletic, explosive, and is physical with his wrestling and ground game. Where he seems to not be as strong as his gas tank and his durability is questionable. McCorry in his loss as a pro was taken down a lot and lost minutes. He still fought to the end and was dangerous throughout the fight. He's a good wrestler as well and his ground game is good at least offensively. The way I see this fight going is Kadi to start off doing well but McCorry taking over. The only path to victory I see for Kadi is a quick submission victory. I don't see McCorry being the one to get steamrolled. I believe the strength and cardio of McCorry will win him the fight. He will land the bigger shots in the feet and get the TKO later in the fight.

Flyweight, Ger Harris (3-1) vs. Ryan Hewitt (1-1)

Harris is the one with the name value here. He is a former IMMAF world champion with a ton of success as an amateur. With that said I sense in upset in this one. Hewitt is just 1-1 and went 2-7 as an amateur but he's better than that record suggests. Harris was a bit exposed in his loss as a pro. He was taken down at ease, controlled on the mat, and slowed down later in the fight. Hewitt does have some suspect grappling defense but he's tough to get down. On the feet he throws a good jab and left kick to the body. Hewitt knows how to use his size and length to his advantage. He's the much bigger guy in this fight as Harris is just 5'3". It would be better if Harris wins but Hewitt has the better tools. I predict him to be able to stick at range and defend takedowns while being the fresher fighter in the later rounds. My prediction is Hewitt by decision.

Welterweight, James Sheehan (6-3) vs. Olli Santalahti (13-5)

I thought Sheehan was pretty good until his last fight when he was dominated by Oban Elliott. Now, he's still good but I don't think he's UFC level. The good this is you don't have to be UFC level to beat Santalahti. There isn't much to say about Santalahti. He's competent everywhere and is very tough. Santalahti has fought better fighters but has lost every time he got a step up in competition. Sheehan a big welterweight at six-foot-two who is a technical guy on the outside using his length. His striking is highlighted by the jab, one-two, and a right cross. His vision along with his shot selection is superb. Sheehan will throw from a lot of angels and is just such a problem on the feet. Sheehan will also wrestle and grapple to mix it up. I just don't see a way Santalahti wins this so I have Sheehan by decision.

Lightweight, Ieuan Davies (3-0) vs. Leon Hill (6-1)

This is the best fight on the entire card between two promising prospects. I've been pretty high on Davies since he was an amateur. The Welshman is a strong kickboxer. His front kick is the jab and his roundhouses are his right/left hooks. Davies quickly asserts himself right away in fights, landing thudding kicks to knock you out. He kicks frequently and mixes it up going to the head and body before going upstairs. Hill isn't anything special but he's a tough one to deal with. There isn't much on the feet but he's a menace on the mat. He uses his big frame at 6-foot-3 to bully guys down. Hill has done a great job utilizing trips to get the takedowns. Once he gets it down it's always been him mounting and raining down heavy ground and pound. Hill is fighting another guy that's tall for the division. I'm much more impressed with Davies. I think he has a higher ceiling and has more ways to win. Not super confident but like Davies by decision.

Lightweight, Mason Jones (12-2) vs. Yann Liasse (9-2):

Jones continues his path to reclaim the Cage Warriors title and to one day get back to the UFC. Jones decided to not resign with the UFC because he wanted more experience. He's getting a good opponent in Liasse. I've never been impressed with Liasse but he is a good guy to test prospects. Jones isn't a prospect though and he's more tested than Mason Jones vs. Yann Liasse. Hardwick put the volume on Liasse and ended up breaking him down to a TKO. I see a similar thing happening in this fight. Jones pressure, volume, power, and cardio should break Liasse either early or in the third round.

Bantamweight, Taka Mhandu (3-2) vs. Alexander Sasha Pirev (6-4-1)::

Pirev made his return to the cage in July after a five-year layoff. It wasn't a warm welcome back as he got knocked out and looked pretty bad. Mhandu should've been the guy to welcome Pirev back since that's a more favorable fight. Mhandu is frustrating to watch because at that size he should be better. He doesn't really know how to use his range outside of being a good athlete. He's low volume and throws in single stikes. Mhandu just fails to put it together offensively and then struggles everywhere defensively. This is still a fight Mhandu should win as this is a layup of all layups. Pirev hasnt won a fight since 2018. I think Mhandu has the advantage everywhere and he wins by TKO in round two.

Welterweight, Sean Clancy Jr. (2-0) vs. Milton Afonso Cabral (4-3):

The Cabral guy is a bum. He's not good anywhere and he sucks everywhere. On the feet he's sloppy with zero technique. He has zero takedown defense and grappling defense. He also lacks cardio big time. Clancy I'm not sure of but at least he has some upside. He's a wrestler/grappler and that should be his easy path to victory. My prediction is Clancy by submission in round one.

Featherweight, Nikita Bagley (3-1) vs. Michael Quinn (0-0):

This is a gimmie fight for Bagley. Quinn is making his pro debut against a tough opponent. This will be his first fight in four years. He had a poor amateur career as well going 6-7. I like Bagley a lot and if he can fix up his cardio he will be a problem. He very athletic and exploding. His wrestling and ground game is good and is dangerous on the feet when he's fresh. My confident prediction is Bagley by submission in round one.