DWCS 2023: Episode 9 Breakdown & Predictions (Patreon)

Flyweight: Lucas Rocha vs. Davi Bittencourt

Tale of the Tape

Lucas Rocha
22-years-old
5'2″
Coari, Amazonas, Brazil
Renovação Coari Team
16-1
9 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent’s record: 73-36-2

Davi Bittencourt
28-years-old
5’4″
Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Daniel Oliveira Methodology
14-3
6 KO/TKOs, 6 Submissions
Combined opponent’s record: 34-31-1

Pros and Cons

Lucas Rocha

Pros

• Good output/Combination striker
• Good bodywork
• Nice leg kicks
• Good ground and pound
• Credible wrestling
• Good ground and pound
• Scrambles well
• Good bodywork
• Complacent jiu-jitsu
• Good leg kicks
• Scrambles well

Cons

• Questionable chin
• Hands too wide/low
• Gives up his back too easy
• Vulnerable coming in

Davi Bittencourt

Pros

• Good ground and pound
• Fast starter
• Submission threat
• Aggressive
• Good jiu-jitsu
• Good wrestling
• Explosive

Cons

• Questionable chin
• Shoots from too far out at times
• Poor TDD

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Rocha
Speed: Rocha
Output/Volume: Rocha
Kickboxing: Rocha
Striking defense: Even
Footwork/movement: Rocha
Wrestling: Bittencourt
Grappling: Bittencourt
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: Both these guys have had similar careers. Both started off filling their record with wins over regional bums. Recently they both have proved to be top prospects beating other good fighters. Bittencourt has won his last 10 fights and just won the Shooto Brazil title. Rocha won multiple titles at Strawweight but is now on at 125 and has won his last five.

I believe Bittencourt has his hands full in this one. It's a fight he's gonna have to take to the mat because he will get chewed up on the feet. Bittencourt doesn't have the best chin as he's been dropped a lot in his career. Rocha is better in every area on the feet. Rocha's speed, volume, and technique is gonna overwhelm Bittencourt. The clearest path to victory is for Rocha on the feet. I don't think Bittencourt can even take Rocha down. Even if he does I don't think his BJJ is good enough to neutralize Rocha. I'm confident Rocha is the better fighter and he will find the finish with his striking sometime later in the fight.

Bantamweight: Eduardo Matias Torres vs. Victor Hugo Silva

Tale of the Tape

Eduardo Matias Torres
28-years-old
5'8"
Santiago, Chile
Equipo Weichafe
16-1
5 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 55-36-2

Victor Hugo Silva
30-years-old
5'8″
Goiania, Goias, Brazil
Astra Fight Team
23-4
8 KO/TKOs, 8 Submissions
Combined opponent’s record: 111-52-1

Pros and Cons

Eduardo Matias Torres

Pros

• Good ground and pound
• Utilizes trips in the clinch
• Technical grappling
• Good right hand
• Well-conditioned
• Good kicks
• Credible counter striker

Cons

• Low output
• Throws single strikes

Victor Hugo Silva

Pros

• Heavy kicks
• Aggressive
• Strikes to wrestle well
• Good wrestling
• Submission threat
• Active ground and pound
• Good jiu-jitsu

Cons

• Will shoot from too far out at time
• Can be overzealous on the mat

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Torres
Speed: Silva
Output/Volume: Silva
Kickboxing: Torres
Striking defense: Torres
Footwork/movement: Torres
Wrestling: Silva
Grappling: Silva
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: After watching the tape I have no idea what to expect in this fight. Both guys seem to be good but I don't know how good. From what I knew of Torres is he started off more as a grappler. He's lately been striking solely and is comfortable doing so. Silva has some stuff on the feet but sticks to his jiu-jitsu mostly. Of all the fights I broke down so far this is the toughest one to call. If I had to pick I'd pick Torres because he's more well-rounded. Not confident but I'm picking Torres by decision.

Light-heavyweight: Jose Daniel Medina Vs. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Tale of the Tape

Jose Daniel Medina
32-years-old
???
Santa Cruz, Bolivia
La Base MMA
11-2
8 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 37-50

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
29-years-old
6'3″
Russia/Bahrain
KHK MMA Team
7-0
4 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent’s record: 14-12

Pros and Cons

Jose Daniel Medina

Pros

• Heavy ground and pound
• Credible single leg

Cons

• Poor TDD
• Slows as the fight goes
• Shoots sloppy takedowns
• Sloppy striking

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Pros

• Explosive
• Dynamic
• Athletic
• Excellent kickboxing
• Good wrestling
• Active ground and pound
• Good counter striking

Cons

• N/A

Prediction: There isn't a lot on Gadzhiyasulov but he's winning this fight no doubt. Medina just isn't anywhere near the UFC level. He's losing to sad competition and going back and forth with your neighbors on the grill. Gadzhiyasulov looks like an interesting prospect at 205. You don't see much of anyone with the fluidity like him in the weightclass. I know more needs to be seen but this is a showcase fight for Gadzhiyasulov. Im picking Gadzhiyasulov by a first-round TKO.

Light-heavyweight: Murtaza Talha Vs Rodolfo Bellato

Tale of the Tape

Murtaza Talha
26-years-old
6'0″
Al-Muharraq, Bahrain
KHK MMA Tea,
6-0
3 KO/TKOs, 3 Submissions
Combined opponents' record: 29-6

Rodolfo Bellato
27-years-old
6’3″
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Team Nogueira
10-2
5 KO/TKOs, 4 Submissions
Combined opponents' record: 50-27

Pros and Cons

Murtaza Talha

Pros

• Excellent wrestling
• Strikes to wrestler well
• Strong positional grappling
• Aggressive wrestling attack
• Submission threat
• Excellent ground control
• Solid Jiu-Jitsu
• Heavy ground and pound

Cons

• N/A

Rodolfo Bellato

Pros

• Excellent Jiu-Jitsu
• Fight-ending ground and pound
• Explosive
• Submission threat
• Dangerous off his back
• Physically strong
• Good jab
• Good output

Cons

• Questionable chin
• Rushes in blind

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Bellato
Speed: Bellato
Output/Volume: Talha
Kickboxing: Bellato
Striking defense: Talha
Footwork/movement: Even
Wrestling: Talha
Grappling: Talha
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: Talha came into his pro career as one of the best amateur prospects at the time. He went 12-0 never losing in three years in IMMAF winning gold which is an incredible feat. Talha has been a terror in his pro career over in Brave CF dominating everyone.

Bellato is getting his second chance on the contender series after losing last season to the only person that beat him, Vitor Petrino. Since that loss, he's won his next two. Last May he won the LFA light-heavyweight title.

I like Bellato and I think he's UFC level but he's getting a rough match-up. Talha is one of the best light-heavyweight prospects worldwide. Bellato is a BJJ guy but the wrestling of Talha should be able to cancel that out. Bellato is dangerous off his back but I would bet Talha isn't getting caught while on top. There is a chance Bellato can win on the feet. Talha has a smothering pace and I believe will just relentlessly put Bellato on his but. My prediction is Talkha by ground and pound later in the fight.

Welterweight: Raheam Forest vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Tale of the Tape

Raheam Forest
26-years-old
5'11"
Memphis, Tennessee, US
Memphis Judo and Jiu-Jitsu
7-1
4 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission
Combined opponent's record: 26-10

Mauricio Ruffy
30-years-old
5'11″
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Fighting Nerds
8-1
8 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent’s record: 61-25

Pros and Cons

Raheam Forest

Pros

• Heavy hands
• Very explosive
• Heavy kicks
• Fast starter
• Nasty ground and pound
• Good wrestling
• Dangerous in exchanges
• Constant forward pressure
• Heavy top control
• Submission threat
• Physically strong
• Good gas tank

Cons

• Poor TDD
• Grappling defense lacks

Mauricio Ruffy

Pros

• Good use of range
• Accurate
• Dangerous counter striker
• Explosive
• Athletic
• Dynamic
• Long jab
• Good kickboxing
• Improved TDD

Cons

• Hands low
• Questionable chin

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Ruffy
Speed: Forest
Output/Volume: Forest
Kickboxing: Ruffy
Striking defense: Forest
Footwork/movement: Ruffy
Wrestling: Forest
Grappling: Forest
Gas tank: Forest

Prediction: This is an exciting fight between two guys I like a lot. Forest has a glaring hole in his takedown defense but I don't think Ruffy is the guy to exploit that. The way Ruffy holds his hands so low with the huge knockout power Forest has is very concerning. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Forest has to be careful coming in recklessly as he does against a smooth counter striker in Ruffy.

I expected to pick Forest when the fight was made but I'm going Ruffy. I see Ruffy being able to use his length, footwork, and counter ability to stifle Forest. I can see Forest being able to go in there and starch Ruffy with his power. I see a more likely scenario in Ruffy hurting Forest as he's coming in that leads to a finish.