DWCS 2023: Episode 1 Breakdown & Predictions (Patreon)

Bantamweight: Junior Cortez Vs. Payton Talbott

Tale of the Tape

Junior Cortez
30-years-old
5’7″
Phoenix, Arizona, US
Fight Ready MMA
7-2
5 KO/TKOs
Combined opponents' record: 14-13

Payton Talbott
24-years-old
5’10″
Reno, Nevada, US
Reno Academy of Combat
5-0
5 KO/TKOs
Combined opponents' record: 18-6-2

Pros and Cons

Junior Cortez

Pros

• Knockout power
• Good TDD
• Heavy leg kicks
• Solid right hand
• Underrated wrestling
• Good-enough grappling
• Quick hands
• Good use of feints
• Solid GNP
• Well-conditioned
• Good one-two
• A lot of toughness
• Good output

Cons

• Easily hit
• Plodding footwork

Payton Talbott

Pros

• Excellent bodywork
• Good ground and pound
• Does well off his back
• Good shot-selection
• Uses different striking patterns
• Combination striker
• Good jab
• Dangerous knees
• High volume

Cons

• Lacks head movement at times
• TDD needs some work
• Chin high

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Talbott
Speed: Cortez
Output/Volume: Talbott
Kickboxing: Cortez
Striking defense: Cortez
Footwork/movement: Talbott
Wrestling: Cortez
Grappling: Talbott
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: I love this fight as it's a great main event to start the season. I came into the fight fully expecting to pick Talbott but it's closer to pick than some think. Cortez has improved so much since his contender series fight in 2021. So much that I think he's UFC level no matter the outcome. Talbott has also grown rapidly. Watch his pro debut and then his last fight and you will see he's miles ahead from that early version.

Talbott is so good with his striking I see a lot of Sean O'Malley in him. Talbott is an extremely talented striker that is gonna carve up a lot of people in the future. His defense is still a big concern. His head movement is good at times but for the most part his chin is wide open. Also his takedown defense is a big issue even though he's always got right back up.

I look at Cortez in this fight as the lesser striker but technically but is still more dangerous. I say that because Cortez can take a lot of punishment and dish it out. Talbott hasn't fought someone with the hand speed and power of Cortez. I can see Talbott landing more output but Cortez having the bigger moments.

I like Cortez for the upset here. I'm strongly factoring in the striking defense of Talbott. Cortez I believe will land the more impactful strikes. Even though I think this will be a striking match for the most part Cortez could mix in a few takedowns. I love this fight but I believe it's too soon for Talbott. The pick is Cortez by decision.

Heavyweight: Caio Machado vs. Kevin Szaflarski

Tale of the Tape

Caio Machado
29-years-old
6'4"
Brazil/Canada
Franco Kickboxing Pankration
7-1-1
4 KO/TKO's, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 41-38-1

Kevin Szaflarski
28-years-old
6'6"
Nowy Targ, Poland
Akademia Sportów Walki Wilanów
11-1
4 KO/TKO's, 5 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 54-46-1

Pros and Cons

Caio Machado

Pros

• Excellent knees
• Heavy hands
• Starts fast
• Heavy kicks
• Submission threat
• Good clinch work

Cons

• Sits in the pocket too long
• Hands low/Easily hit
• Questionable cardio

Kevin Szaflarski

Pros

• Solid jab
• Good TDD
• Submission threat
• Good cardio
• Good ground and pound
• Strong against the cage

Cons

• Low output at times

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Machado
Speed: Machado
Output/Volume: Machado
Kickboxing: Even
Striking defense: Szaflarski
Footwork/movement: Machado
Wrestling: Even
Grappling: Szaflarski
Gas tank: Szaflarski

Prediction: Both these guys ate mid-tier heavyweight which could make for a good fight or a sloppy one. Szaflarski was supposed to fight last season and I was picking him to beat Jimmy Lawson. Machado is a much tougher test compared to Lawson. Machado was supposed to fight last season as well and against Paulo Renato Jr. Szaflarski is a better prospect than Renato.

Szaflarski is a better fighter than he gets credit for especially for a heavyweight. He's got a lot of the fundamentals needed but that doesn't matter much at heavyweight. Although he has more finishes than decisions he's not known for his power. He wears on guys breaking them down. Nothing flashy but he's been getting the job done

Machado is the more known fighter as he was the BFL champion as viewed on UFC Fight Pass. He had multiple title defenses for the promotion. He's been apart of some wild fights with emphatic finishes.

Tough fight to call as both are completely different fighters. Szaflarski is probably the favorite as the fight goes on. I see it going differently expecting Machado to bring the fight to Szaflarski fast and hard. He will make Szaflarski get into a dog fight and a fight I see Machado winning. If somehow Machado doesn't finish early he could be in trouble. With that said I think Machado starts fast and ends it fast.

Flyweight: Kevin Borjas vs. Victor Dias

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Borjas
25-years-old
???
Lima, Peru
Pitbull Martial Arts Center
8-1
8 KO/TKO's
Combined opponent’s record: 25-22

Victor Dias
32-years-old
5'6″
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Tata Fight Team
11-2
1 KO/TKO, 6 Submissions
Combined opponent’s record: 67-39-1

Pros and Cons

Kevin Borjas

Pros

• Explosive
• Hits hard
• Good knees

Cons

• Zero head movement
• Flat-footed
• Loads up too much
• Questionable grappling defense

Victor Dias

Pros

• Aggressive
• Excellent jiu-jitsu
• Scrambles really well
• Heavy leg kicks
• Good  use of feints
• Big submission threat
• Excellent back take
• Physically strong
• Smooth transitions
• Hits sweeps often
• Chain wrestles well
• Solid positional grappling

Cons

• Throws wild
• Struggles on the outside

Prediction: This was supposed to be Rickson Zenidim fighting Borjas but now we get Victor Dias. Dias is an excellent replacement and could be someone that could've went straight to the UFC. He's a winner of his last five and is the reigning Titan FC flyweigh champion. I don't see this as a competitive fight at all. I had Zenidim beating Borjas so I think Dias runs through Borjas. I expect an early takedown and a RNC finish.

Middleweight: César Almeida vs. Lucas Fernando

Tale of the Tape

Cesar Almeida
35-years-old
6’0″
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Corinthians MMA
3-0
3 KO/TKOs
Combined opponent’s record: 5-28-1

Lucas Fernando
26-years-old
6'3"
9-1
5 KO/TKOs, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent's record: 55-16

Pros and Cons

Cesar Almeida

Pros

• Good clinch work
• Fast starter
• Heavy hands

Cons

• N/A

Lucas Fernando

Pros

• Uses range well
• Good bodywork
• Long jab
• Explosive
• Good straight punches
• Underrated wrestling
• Good leg kicks
• Good top control

Prediction: There isn't much MMA tape on Almeida to get a good enough read. He's well-known in the kickboxing world holding a 47-8-1, and 1 NC record. Almeida competed for both for WGP and Glory Kickboxing. He was a WGP cruiserweight champion and the SUPERKOMBAT light-heavyweight champion. He's 3-0 in MMA but hasn't been tested. Never fought past round one and has never fought anyone with a winning record. The only guy with experience he fought was 5-28-1.

Fernando on the other hand has been super impressive. He's coming off winning the vacant LFA middleweight title. His only loss is to a good fighter in Diego Dias. Fernando beats that version of himself every day of the week He's a winner of his last four and has been scoring some big knockouts along the way.

Looking at this fight I have to go with Fernando. Almeida is just a big unknown. He's not getting any favors as Fernando is one of the brighter middleweight prospects there is. Almeida is a threat for the knockout but I believe the kickboxing and size of Fernando will give Almeida problems. Also, Fernando could just wrestle to neutralize the kickboxer. The pick is Fernando because he has more ways to win.

Lightweight: Tom Nolan Vs. Bogdan Grad

Tale of the tape

Tom Nolan
23-years-old
6’3″
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Team Compton Training Centre
5-0
3 KO/TKO's
Combined opponent’s record: 20-10

Bogdan Grad
27-years-old
5'9″
Weiz, Austria
ETTL BROS MMA
11-1
7 KO/TKO's, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent’s record: 44-31-1

Pros and Cons

Tom Nolan

Pros

• Tough
• Good clinch work
• Nasty elbows
• Gritty
• Good left cross
• Fast starter
• Constant output

Cons

• Slows as the fight goes
• TDD needs some work
• Gives up his back easy

Bogdan Grad

Pros

• Diverse
• Submission threat
• Fast hands
• Hard to read
• Deceptive power
• Heavy leg kicks
• Good jiu-jitsu
• Active kicking attack
• Excellent body kick
• Explosive

Cons

• Head sits on the centerline
• Throws with wasted motion at times

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Nolan
Speed: Nolan
Output/Volume: Nolan
Kickboxing: Grad
Striking defense: Even
Footwork/movement: Nolan
Wrestling: Grad
Grappling: Grad
Gas tank: Grad

Prediction: I went back and forth with this fight just because it's a tight fight stylistically. Grad is more seasoned and more proven. My biggest issue with him is Nolan is gonna be significantly the bigger fighter. He's gonna be six inches taller. The size doesn't matter too much as Nolan is more of a pocket striker.

Grad could win this fight based on landing that big shot or even if he uses a bit of wrestling. Nolan is tough so it's gonna be hard to put him away. The most likely path I see this fight going is Nolan winning off volume. I see Nolan being able to outpoint Grad as Grad isn't great defensively. I do think this is the hardest fight to predict this week.