Road to UFC: Episode 5 Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Featherweight: Yi Zhi Vs. Koyomi Matsushima

Tale of the Tape

Yi Zhi
Aba, Sichuan, China
25-years-old
5'7"
20-3
Two-fight win streak

Kayomi Matsushima
Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
30-years-old
5'8"
13-5
No win streak

Pros and Cons

Yi Zhi

Pros

• Good ground and pound
• Strong wrestling
• Submission threat
• Scrambles really well
• Light footwork
• Good output
• Fast starter
• Good off his back

Cons

• Questionable chin
• TDD needs a little work

Kayomi Matsushima

Pros

• Submission threat
• Quick feet
• Chain wrestles well
• Strong grappling
• Creative striking/takedowns
• Scrambles really well
• Solid wrestling
• Good kicks

Cons

• Shoots takedowns from too far out at times
• Slows as the fight goes
• Hands held low
• Throws single strikes
• Questionable chin

Prediction: This is both a fun fight and a tough fight to call. This is a fight between both guys who are well-rounded and are maybe UFC level. Matsushima is exciting and even in fights where his body language isn't good, he's still giving it 100%. Zha has been cleaner in his fights getting the wins with little issue and hardly any diversity. Matsushima over and over has had to dig deep to get his hand raised. As that might not look great in theory it's a valuable tool. I think Zha is the more talented fighter but Matsushima edges him in a grueling fight which is I think the way this fight will go. I see a lot of wrestling exchanges and I see Matsushima winning scrambles and landing more takedowns. Zha isn't gonna find it easy to ground Matsushima as he did his last opponent. I think Matsushima has too much dog in him for Zha and he wins a close decision.

Flyweight: Qiulun Vs Seung Guk Choi

Tale of the tape

Choi Seung Guk
Seoul, Korea
25-years-old
5'6"
5-1
4-fight win streak

Qiulun
Shanghai, China
25-years-old
5'7"
16-8
No win streak

Pros and Cons

Choi Seung Guk

Pros

• Good leg kicks
• Uses feints well
• Good counter-puncher
• Good movement
• Decent enough wrestling
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• Telegraphs his takedown entries
• Too willing to stand and trade
• Lacks head movement

Qiulun

Pros

• Good one-two
• Hands high
• Good kicks
• Athletic

Cons

• Poor TDD
• Poor grappling defense/Lost off his back

Prediction: This is a fight I'm strongly confident in. Lun only wants this fight on the feet but Guk is a better striker. Lun struggles badly with takedown defense and the ground game so Guk could take advantage there. He doesn't really have to take the fight down as I think Guk is even levels above on the feet. Lun will be steps behind while Guk is gonna be more efficient, faster, and more explosive. Lun has eight losses for a reason and I'm sure he will have nine after this fight.

Flyweight: Park Hyun Sung Vs. Top Noi

Tale of the Tape

Park Hyun Sung
South Korea
26-years-old
5'7"
6-0
9-fight win streak

Top Noi
Phuket, Thailand
30-years-old
5'9"
8-3
Two-fight win streak

Pros and Cons

Park Hyun Sung

Pros

• Submission threat
• Good jab
• Explosive
• Good vision
• Heavy leg kicks
• Good shot-placement
• Competent grappling
• Good kicks

Cons

• Head movement lacks
• Can be over aggressive
• TDD needs some work

Top Noi

Pros

• Heavy kicks
• Good elbows
• Hits hard
• Dangerous in exchanges
• Power left hook
• Explosive
• Good counter striker

Cons

• Suspect chin
• Rushing in exposed
• Limited grappling
• TDD needs some work
• Hands low
• Low volume
• Nothing off his back

Prediction: Noi should be a lot better than he shows in the cage. He's got sharp striking and good power but last activity and any sort of urgency. Noi was able to edge Horiuchi has last fight but it was kinda easy when Horiuchi lacked footwork and head movement. Sung does need to move his head better but he's not gonna sit there in the pocket. Noi relies too much on his counter striking he loses minutes waiting. I see Sung picking away at Noi and avoiding any of the power shots from Noi. Sung has a clear advantage on the mat as Noi has nothing really to offer. I do see Sung playing his cards a lot on the feet and his speed and movement should allow him to cruise. The pick is Sung by outpointing Noi.

Bantamweight: Kim Min Woo Vs. Toshiomi Kazama

Tale of the tape

Kim Min Woo
South Korea
29-years-old
5'9"
10-2
2-fight win streak

Toshiomi Kazama
Ibaraki, Japan
25-years-old
5'7"
10-2
No win streak

Pros and Cons

Kim Min Woo

Pros

• Good pocket striker
• Good kicks
• Strong jab
• Submission threat
• Good straight punches

Cons

• Low output
• At times head sits on the centerline

Toshiomi Kazama

Pros

• Huge submission threat
• Good wrestling/Excellent trips
• Well-conditioned
• Excellent back take
• Aggressive
• Diverse submission attack
• Scrambles well
• Explosive
• Excellent jiu-jitsu

Cons

• Over pursues takedowns at times

Prediction: Kim was able to skate to the second round due to his opponents pulling out of the fight. On the other side, Kazama looked great in his first fight and had good three rounds under his belt. Woo is gonna have to deal with pressure, defend takedowns, and survive the grappling exchanges. Woo is a good striker that is by far the best striker Kazama has fought. Kazama is still raw on the feet but is competent enough to hold his own. I'm confident that Kazama can close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate on the mat. I like Kazama as he has the clearest path to victory.

Featherweight: Balajin Vs. Keisuke Sasu

Tale of the Tape

Balajin
Qingdao, Shandong, China
30-years-old
5'9"
23-3
15-fight win streak

Keisuke Sasu
Kanagawa, Japan
28-years-old
5'7"
9-2-1
No win streak

Pros and Cons

Balajin

Pros

• Good wrestling
• Physically strong
• Good movement
• Submission threat
• Moves well on top
• Good in the clinch
• Active ground and pound

Cons

• Loses grappling positions at times
• Rushes in at times
• Telegraphs his punches at times

Keisuke Sasu

Pros

• Solid wrestling
• Excellent trip takedowns
• Hits hard
• Physically strong
• Good back take

Cons

• Flat-footed
• Lacks head movement
• TDD needs work

Prediction: Sasu fought in the first round of the tournament and lost to Yi Zhi in the first round. For some reason, Sasu is getting another shot in a non-tournament bout in an attempt to impress the UFC brass. I don't think this is a favor for Sasu as it's more so a fight for Balajin to use to get his name out there. Balajin has some impressive wins but a lot of the guys he fought were to boost his record. Still, Balajin is a good prospect and looks like he could compete in the UFC today. Sasu is also good but I think if he can get taken down and submitted easily by Zhi then Balajin should be able to do the same. Sasu is more of a wrestler/grappler himself but Balajin is the bigger stronger guy. It's a bit hidden but I believe Balajin has some solid striking when he decides to use it. I think Balajin is better everywhere and he probably finishes Sasu inside two rounds.