Road to UFC: Episode 1 Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Featherweight: Yi Zhi Vs. Keisuke Sasu

Tale of the Tape

Yi Zhi
Aba, Sichuan, China
25-years-old
5'7"
19-3
No win streak

Keisuke Sasu
Kanagawa, Japan
27-years-old
5'7"
9-1-1
7-fight win streak

Pros and Cons

Yi Zhi

Pros

• Good ground and pound
• Strong wrestling
• Submission threat
• Scrambles really well
• Light footwork
• Good output
• Fast starter
• Good off his back

Cons

• Questionable chin
• TDD needs a little work

Keisuke Sasu

Pros

• Solid wrestling
• Excellent trip takedowns
• Hits hard
• Physically strong
• Good back take

Cons

• Flat-footed
• Lacks head movement
• TDD needs work

Prediction: Both these guys are good prospects but to me, only one really stands out. That being the younger Yi Zha. Sasu is more of a wrestler and as he is the more physical guy Zha is slicker. On the feet, Zha is faster, has better footwork, better kickboxing, and even better defensively. Zha has been dropped in a few of his fights but Sasu doesn't have the closing speed to do that. If he does connect I'm not confident he has the closing ability to put the fight away. As a wrestler I strongly favor Zha. Most of the takedowns from Sasu come from the clinch and Zha can wrestle from all areas. The biggest factor is the jiu-jitsu of Zha. Zha is much better at moving into dominant positions and creating scrambles. He's a much better submission grappler and can make if difficult for Sasu even if he was on top. I like Zha as he has more weapons and is better everywhere.

Lightweight: Jinnosuke Kashimura Vs. Ki Won Bin

Tale of the tape

Jinnosuke Kashimura
Ibaraki, Japan
20-years-old
5'8"
3-1
2-fight win streak

Ki Won Bin
South Korea
31-years-old
5'8"
15-7
No win streak

Pros and Cons

Jinnosuke Kashimura

Pros

• N/A

Cons

• N/A

Ki Won Bin 

Pros

• Good right hand
• Knockout power
• Fast starter
• Constant forward pressure
• dangerous in exchanges

Cons

• Weak chin
• Gets drawn into brawls
• Reckless

Prediction: Kashimmura is taking this fight on super short notice up a weightclass. Bin is much more experienced compared to just four pro fights of Kashimura. Bin has also fought good competition while Kashimura has never fought anyone with a winning record. With Bin he's gonna be the much better striker. His chin is a concern but it probably isn't in danger here. Kashimura has zero footage but there is no secret he's a jiu-jitsu fighter. Bin has decent grappling so there is a chance there is a path to victory for Kashimura. The most likely outcome of this fight is Bin will take over minute by minute and it would be a big upset if he lost.

Bantamweight: Keremuaili Maimaitituoheti Vs. Toshiomi Kazama

Tale of the tape

Keremuaili Maimaitituoheti
Shandong, China
31-years-old
5'7"
26-10
7-fight win streak

Toshiomi Kazama
Ibaraki, Japan
25-years-old
5'7"
9-2
No win streak

Pros and Cons

Keremuaili Maimaitituoheti

pros

• Explosive
• Good back take
• Physically strong

Cons

• Struggles on the outside
• Grappling defense lacks
• Flat-footed
• Gas tanks bare watching

Toshiomi Kazama

Pros

• Huge submission threat
• Good wrestling
• Excellent back take
• Diverse submission attack
• Explosive
• Excellent jiu-jitsu

Cons

• N/A

Prediction: Both these guys don't have a lot of footage available but mostly for Maimaitituoheti. With Maimaitituoheti there isn't much to look forward to. Who is someone to be excited for is this kid Toshiomi Kazama. Kazama is a legit BJJ practitioner who has won various medals in jiu-jitsu. From heel hooks to armbars to triangles to hammerlocks he's a huge threat on the mat. Not just a submission fighter his ground and pound is very good. Kazama is constantly working to finish. Maimaitituoheti has lost four times by submission and his takedown defense does lack. Should be an easy submission win for Kazama.

Flyweight: Choi Seung Guk Vs. Rama Supandhi

Tale of the tape

Choi Seung Guk
Seoul, Korea
27-years-old
5'7"
4-1
3-fight win streak

Rama Supandhi
Indonesia
30-years-old
5'6"
8-3
2-fight win streak

Pros and Cons

Choi Seung Guk

Pros

• Good leg kicks
• Uses feints well
• Good counter-puncher
• Good movement
• Decent enough wrestling
• Good ground and pound

Cons

• Telegraphs his takedown entries
• Too willing to stand and trade
• Lacks head movement

Rama Supandhi

Pros

• Submission threat
• Good back take
• Solid jiu-jitsu
• Scrambles well
• Excellent RNC
• Good off his back

Cons

• Hands low
• Will pull guard
• Low output
• Limited on the feet

Prediction: This is a grapple vs striker practically. Guk does have some wrestling/grappling skills but most likely this is a fight he'll shy away from. He does have better wrestling than Supandhi which could be a valuable weapon for him in this fight. Guk has a big advantage on the feet, possibly the biggest advantage between the two. Supandhi has strong jiu-jitsu but not the wrestling to match. If he had better wrestling he might would be the pick. I like the output and overall striking of Guk enough to side with him.

Light-heavyweight: Zhang Mingyang Vs. George Tokkos

Tale of the tape

Zhang Mingyang
Qingdao, China
???
6'2"
15-6
7-fight win streak

George Tokkos
London, England
32-years-old
6'3"
7-2
3-fight win streak

Pros and Cons

Zhang Mingyang

Pros

• Good kicks
• Heavy ground and pound
• Athletic
• Fasy starter

Cons

• Weak chin
• TDD needs work
• Gets drawn into brawls
• Questionable cardio

George Tokkos

Pros

• Strong grappler
• Submission threat
• Decent wrestling
• Deceptive power
• Starts fast

Cons

• Loads up too much
• Slows as the fight goes
• Hands too wind/low
• Plodding footwork

Prediction: Both these guys have a lot of flaws to succeed in the UFC but it's obvious this fight is made for Tokkos. Putting it nicely, Mingyang is at the bottom of the division. It's tough to pinpoint where he's good at and he struggles everywhere. Even though he has much more experience than Tokkos the man from the UK has fought much better competition. Tokkos will probably get the submission early and even though he's not a striker he could knockout Mingyang.