UFC Denver Bets (Patreon)

From here on out I'm only gonna be posting bets that I actually do my homework on. I thought I could just do well off just memory but I know that's not the way to go at is. I'm not gonna force anything so my limit for each card is no more than five plays. I'm using BetOnline and each unit is $25. Last week I went 3-2 and added 6.21 units.

1 unit on Mariya Agapova at +235
I can't trust someone as raw as Santos as a moderate favorite. Santos was signed to the UFC prematurely. She's way too green to be in the UFC. Agapova was highly touted at one point but was exposed and she hasn't been the same since. Her cardio is a huge issue but maybe with almost two years out of the cage, she's improved. At her best, she's more skilled than Santos. With Santos it may be smart to live bet her after round one which I probably will but this is just a fade on Santos.

3 units on Fatima Kline at -104
Kline is taking this fight on short notice up a weightclass but she's better than Jan. This fight reminds me of when Felipe Lima when he stepped up to fight Muhammad Naimov. Lima was at a disadvantage with everything but the skillset and that prevailed against Naimov. That should be the same think with this fight. Jas is bigger but Kline is better in every single area.

2 units on Drew Dober at -112.
Dober opened up at -160 and now at -112 is wild to me. Silva is coming off a big win over Charles Jourdain but is that more of that Silva is good or Jourdain is on the decline? That fight was also two weeks ago from this fight so it's a quick turnaround for Silva. Silva seems like a lesser version of Dober so if he just wants to bite down on his mouthpiece and bang I favor Dober. Dober is historically durable so if Silva can beat Dober I'd be super impressed. I'm still not sold on Silva so I think Dober is definitely the side.

1 unit on Montel Jackson at -123.
I waited for Jackson to get a better at price and I believe -123 is the best price he's been at since the line opened. I'm a big Blackshear fan but his path to victory is a takedown. Jackson is the better striker and his defensive wrestling I believe is good enough. I can't really trust Blackshear to come in with a wrestling-heavy heavy gamplan. If he doesn't he'll be in trouble with those lunchboxes Jackson has as hands.