(Weekend) News Burst: April 14, 2017 (Patreon)

Hey All,

I hope you are enjoying your Friday evenings (or whatever time/day it is where you are, when you read this). I’m in a hotel in Santa Monica, getting the news together for this here News Burst. Erin and I may have found a great apartment here; keep your fingers crossed for us!

Before I get into it, though, two things:

1.) I met more than a few of you Patreon supporters last night at the USC event on free speech that I partook in. Thank you so much for being there, and for your kind words. I know for a fact that the event was recorded; as soon as (or if) the video goes live on YouTube (or somewhere else easily accessible), I will let you all know, and provide pertinent links.

2.) I think I’ve come to a conclusion on making an audio version of Colin’s Last Stand available, and it’s going to be a compromise. The fact is, I don’t really think the show totally “works” in audio form, but there’s demand for it. So, beginning early in the week (perhaps even on Monday), I will begin rolling out the previous four videos in audio form, as well as the fifth video’s audio. Then, moving forward, I will make the audio available the day each video goes live.

But there’s a catch.

I don’t really want the audio-only version in the wild. I want people to watch the videos on YouTube, because I think they work better there, and I put a ton of time into editing them. So, audio is going to be available, but it’s going to be for Patrons only. Don’t worry -- if you’re reading this, you’re going to get the audio included in what you already pay -- but what I’m trying to decide is at which level I want to put it. I’ll continue to marinate on it over the weekend.

In the meantime, know that, for those who have been asking for audio, you’ve been heard. I hope this compromise works for you.

Okay, onto the news. Have a great weekend!

USA vs. North Korea: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4413342/In-deadly-game-dare-Kim-Jong-suicide.html | http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4411108/North-Korea-hits-Trump-ahead-Day-Sun.html | http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-event-idUSKBN17E2CT

My Take: This is such a significant, developing geopolitical story that I’m giving you not one link, not two, but three. That’s because this is getting into serious territory. 1962, Cuban Missile Crisis-style territory. A showdown between two nations, except both of them are led by people that don’t seem to be willing to back down or compromise. And the question remains: Should we be interested in compromising with North Korea at all?

Here’s the thing: North Korea is an existential threat to East Asia. Its bluster has been dealt with, accepted, and looked past for long enough, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that, since the fall of the Soviet Union, there was an expectation that North Korea’s fall was imminent. Nearly three decades later, though -- and three leaders later -- North Korea still stands. It has nuclear weapons, a massive cache of chemical (and possibly biological) weapons, a dictatorial cult of personality, and a brainwashed society. This is a dangerous combination.

This situation is complicated, because we have to ask ourselves a simple question: Are we going to let this rogue, communist, belligerent country continue to do whatever it wants? Or are we going to take a stand, finally, against their bluster and their bullshit? I don’t know the answer. My instincts tell me that, for as great it would be for us to go in and take care of this once and for all, the blowback isn’t only predictable, but it could be catastrophic. And, so, we have to think very carefully, and weigh everything just-so. This shit is serious.

Pyongyang would fall quickly, and North Korea would capitulate in days. Of that, there is no doubt. But at what price? What would happen to Seoul and Tokyo? Could North Korea deliver nuclear bombs? We know they can deliver chemical weapons and conventional missiles that could wreak havoc on their neighbors. We could put it all to an end, but what would it look like when we were done? And what if the sacred convention of MAD was broken by North Korea? Do we level Pyongyang? How will the Chinese react? Could this catalyze a regional -- or global -- conflict? As I noted earlier this week, a majority of South Koreans don't even want reunification anymore. How will North Korea be taken care of -- millions upon millions of innocent people who have no idea what the real world actually is -- will have to be tended to and cared for by someone.

I hate the idea that we continue, as a world, to be held hostage by The Hermit Kingdom. I hate that the Chinese, in particular, have done virtually nothing to help us. But understand what we’re dealing with: A suicidal, unwell madman who will take his whole country down with him before he surrenders (which is what makes that one Daily Mail story so interesting). Still, I feel like Trump and Xi must have some sort of back-door agreement. As Trump stages exercises in South Korea and sends nuclear-armed ships towards the Korean coast, China sends thousands upon thousands of troops to the Chinese-North Korean border, and abstains in the UN vote on Syria.

Something’s up. Keep your eyes peeled. And hope for the best possible outcome. We aren’t in danger here in the United States. Europe is safe. Australia, too. Japan? South Korea? If things go off, hundreds of thousands -- if not millions, if North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are apt -- could die. That’s just reality.

Is Trump’s Base Turning on Him? http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/trump-base-supporters-turn-on-him-237200

My Take: The answer is “maybe.” As this fascinating story on Politico makes clear, folks that helped champion Trump and get him elected are disappointed in his current shifts in policy. While I’m not a Trump supporter, I’m kind of disappointed in his shift in policy, too, because he’s starting to look and sound far more like the “traditional politician” he was elected to replace. Like him or hate him, he was at least different. He doesn’t seem so different anymore.

A lot of the fixation is on Steve Bannon’s seeming marginalization within the administration (more on that in a bit), but it goes beyond that. Trump promised to call China a currency manipulator his first day in office; he’s since explicitly said they aren’t. Trump promised to keep us out of foreign conflicts; he bombed Syria, is acting shockingly bullish with North Korea, and recently discussed how much he loves NATO. Trump hasn’t delivered health care reform, or tax reform, or done anything to protect American commerce. I can totally get why his staunchest supporters are upset with him.

But, I take a more pragmatic approach. I think the presidency, nearly 100 days into office, has finally sobered Trump. I think he realizes that this job isn’t as easy, as straight-forward, or as no-nonsense as he thought it would be. I wish it were all of those things, too, but it isn’t. It reminds me a lot of Barack Obama’s promise to close Guantanamo. To many (not me), it seemed like a great idea. But then he got all of the information once in office, and then he wasn’t able to act.

Trump is walking a fine line. We’ll see how it plays out.

(Related Story: As Trump ditches his campaign promises, those who opposed him most firmly -- primarily in the establishment -- are now more smitten with him than ever. http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/328916-surprise-now-the-establishment-is-praising-trump)

Assuming Steve Bannon Goes Rogue…: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/donald-trump-steve-bannon-breitbart-215026

My Take: This story is… well… very interesting, to say the last. The writer spoke to a number of Trump confidants, insiders, and friends of Bannon’s, seeking speculation on what Steve Bannon will do if Trump removes or otherwise fires him, and how it can come back to bite Trump and his closest associates in their asses. The rub is that Bannon has a long, storied history of “revenge,” of making enemies out of those that he deems to have crossed him. And Trump may not want to play that game.

I think that the story goes a little too much into Hollywood territory; but then again, maybe it doesn’t. I think some of the consensus is probable. It’s likely that Bannon will leak dirt on Trump, his family, and his allies. I think that much is a given. But will he really go in for the kill? Will he use his deep understanding of and access to analytics to put Trump's delicate coalition in danger in the midterms? And, above all else, will he mount some sort of independent run against him in 2020? I think the latter is foolish, but the rest of it sure seems plausible to me.

Steve Bannon is clearly not a man to be trifled with. The question remains, will Trump do what everyone thinks he’s eventually going to do, and if so, what is the consequence? I reckon we’ll find out.

Is Trump Hiding Something?: http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/328857-trump-administration-wont-release-white-house-visitor-logs

My Take: Obviously. Just consider his tax returns. Still, with this particular story, who the hell knows. White House visitor logs were routinely and commonly made public during the Obama administration, but were in vacillating states of “secret” or “public” under other administrations. The story notes that certain agencies’ logs will inevitably be made public by way of Freedom of Information Act requests, but it appears the White House is (or has been) immune to FOIA requests.

I honestly don’t know that there’s any reason for this, other than Trump likes to keep things secret and close to his chest. At this point, the more he plays the secrecy game, the more it seems like something baked-into his approach, and less about hiding individual things. Whether or not that’s true or not, of course, remains to be seen. But still, he’s not a dumb man. He has to know that all of this adds up to those watching from the outside, and for all we know, that could be a part of the calculus.

Uber Makes Ridiculous Money, Still Posts a Loss: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-tn-uber-financials-20170414-story.html

My Take: For anyone that’s been paying attention to this company closely for a while -- and I have -- this isn’t exactly a huge surprise. Still, it bears repeating that Uber’s grand plans for a largely autonomous future that doesn’t require much of any (or any at all) human input may be a little further off, and their planned scheme to post losses until that future arrives may prove more difficult than originally intended.

In 2016, Uber made a ridiculous $20 BILLION in gross revenue, yet posted a staggering loss of $2.8 billion. The thing is, Uber is actually making more money than ever, and is actually lowering its losses fairly significantly, even if that loss number in particular jumps off the screen.

But here’s the important stat: 75%. That’s how much of that $20 billion went to drivers. Assuming Uber doesn’t get into any other business (and they will; they’re apparently targeting long-distance freight trucking, which is HUGE business), and they’re able to eliminate drivers completely by having their cars autonomously drive, look at how the numbers flip. $15 billion that went to drivers now goes to Uber. That $2.8 billion loss becomes a $12.2 billion profit.

And that, my friends, is why I’m very likely buying Uber stock when it finally goes public.

Facebook Goes After Spam Accounts: https://www.facebook.com/notes/facebook-security/disrupting-a-major-spam-operation/10154327278540766/

My Take: This is an interesting story, although there’s not an incredible amount to say here. Facebook has gone after “fake accounts” on its service, so if you see a couple of random “friends” disappear, you may know why. More importantly, though, you may notice that pages with lots of followers and likes may lose a noticeable number of both. Facebook predicts that pages with 10,000 likes can expect to lose approximately 300 of those.

Interestingly, though, Daily Caller is reporting that USA Today was particularly murdered by Facebook’s move. You can go investigate how deeply that cut the paper, if you’d like. You may also remember that Instagram -- owned by Facebook -- purged users not too long ago. I love that they’re doing this. I wish Twitter would, too. There are so many people on Twitter with outrageously inflated numbers, that have a million followers and get 10 Retweets. What good is that to anyone? I’d love to lose a few thousand followers there if it meant that the new number represented active (or semi-active) people who are actually seeing what I’m posting. But I digress.

F.E.D.O.R., the Robot That Will Kill You: https://sputniknews.com/military/201704141052641419-russian-humanoid-robot-uses-both-arms-shoot/

My Take: How about a little weekend dystopian palate cleanser? I came across this story on Drudge Report, I think, and it’s both curiosity-inducing and completely horrifying. The gist is this: This Russian robot is apparently going to fly in space in 2021, and Russian engineers and scientists have also released pictures of it holding and shooting guns. Fantastic.

There’s some confusion about what F.E.D.O.R.’s purpose will ultimately be -- perhaps as the pilot of Russia’s future autonomous space vehicle, or as an assistant to human astronauts in space. Or maybe as the agent of global destruction. Who can really say?