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Caroline Mauron, co-founder of a digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider, suggests that the options market is pricing in a 20% to 25% probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before the next halving event. The all-time high is $69,000.

Per the options market and likely through analysis of implied volatility and other sophisticated financial modeling tools, there is roughly a 1 in 4 to 1 in 5 chance that Bitcoin will reach a price above $69,000 before the next halving event. 

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Anonymous

not gonna happen

Anonymous

I mean 69k is a 21 delta at /BTCJ4. So yeah 21% chance those futures options expire at least one cent ITM and about a 42% chance of a touch. Nothing magical but can happen!

Anonymous

Delta on the J4 futures options gives it a 21% chance of 68k strike expiring 1cent ITM and that gives it an apx 42% chance we touch 69k before expiration. Would not say “won’t happen.” Rather it’s got a 79% chance of expiring OTM and a 58% chance of not reaching 69k.