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Middle East & Impact on Markets (Patreon)

Published:
2023-10-08 22:41:02
Imported:
2023-10

Content

TLDR

  • Futures down about 70bps  
  • Oil up over 2%  
  • Israel stock market down over 6%
  • Asia flat. 

CNBC: “INVESTORS SHRUG OFF TURMOIL IN MIDDLE EAST.” 

The sad reality is markets like war.  

The Military Industrial Complex boosts government spending, which lifts the economic tide. 

Rumor has it some insiders saw this coming, explaining Friday's market response. In such times, debt becomes a haven, possibly driving down bond yields—good news for governments. 

As for Bitcoin? As I often quip, "Bitty thrives in turmoil." 

I plan on buying more MSTR and TSLA this week.  I also may swap some ETH for SOL.  How much we shall see. 


Comments

Anonymous

LOOOOTS of ppl asking about TSLA snipe levels. It's fairly easy to overlay a fibonacci retracement on the TSLA chart on your trading platform. Choose the last low point before a big move up as your starting point and your ending point is the top of the latest move. I have mine set up like this: bottom is at 6 Jan at 101.01 and the top is 19 Jul 299.29. The numbers you will get will be close enough to James'. Additionally, if you are holding TSLA for 3~5 years minimum, ask yourself this: "If I expect TSLA to have a price of around $500 in 5 years, does it really matter if I purchased at $245 or $260 or pick a number? TA isn't a science; everyone will have slightly different numbers but they'll all be similar enough. FWIW: I wouldn't be buying big tranches now. The time to go hard was back in Jan. Now I just basically DCA. Cheers

Anonymous

Let's remember the best thing for us, for Israel and Palestine is to promote peace at all costs. Because war will affect the markets negatively. We have to promote the idea that the parties at war should respect each other's needs as a starting point for peace rather than seeing violence as an answer.

Anonymous
>>119407594

I wasn’t around in January so I’ve bought a lot since March. Agree on the end destination although I think it’ll hit $500 much sooner than 5 years. What other company can offer growth potential of Tesla?.

Anonymous
>>119430492

This sounds wonderful, however, never in history has appeasement lead to more freedom and peace. Promoting peace "at all costs" is not an effective strategy. The resident just gave iran $6Billion dollars. Apparently, that freedom at all costs position will be much more expensive than you've taken time to imagine.

Anonymous
>>119430492

I am not taking about appeasement, I am talking about negotiations and serious concessions from both sides. And that the US should not support aggression. The situation there needs to be sustainable, where everyone has the opportunity to live a normal life. Neither side has that, especially not the Gazans. They would be better off under the Palestinian Authority without Hamas. Israel would be better off with security guarantees from Arabic states, especially considering their pretty poor long term current prospects.

Anonymous
>>119407594

Certainly none that I know of. Maybe SpaceX or X.com if they were public? Also consider your time value when buying LEAPS. You don’t want to be buying when overall market implied volatility is high, nor do you want to be buying when individual implied volatility is high. A great measure of individual IV is IV Rank or historical IV. They both get you similar numbers. I try to buy LEAPS when both market IV and individual IV are low AND/OR after BIG dip. And I tend to buy around 80 delta strikes. The mix of time value you are buying to the theta decay seems relatively reasonable for me. Sure, ATM strikes cost less but they are basically 100% time value which by definition must eventually end up zero. The caveat to that would be after a gigantic dip (like Jan 2023) where I would not mind buying ATM so as to pick up more contracts than I would be able to buy at 80 delta.

Anonymous
>>119407594

Thanks for the help with Fib level placement-I'm new to this so just one question: James was talking about placing the bottom of levels when the upward trend crosses the 200 day moving average rather than just the "lowest point" of the stock price. Can you please clarify? Thank You!

Anonymous
>>119407594

Hey, so because it starts at a higher price and by comparison doesn't go as high, you'll get tighter fib levels, more granular. By going from a lower number to the same high point, you get wider fib levels, more margin of safety for buys than the tighter fib levels.