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The increase in mortgage rates from 3% to over 7% has made homeownership much more expensive. A $400,000 house that would have cost $1,518 per month at 3% interest now costs over $2500 per month at 7% interest. This means that the monthly payment on a $400,000 house has increased by over $1K per month.

Over the course of a 30-year mortgage, the additional interest payments on a $400,000 house at 7% interest would be over $627K. This means that the total cost of the house would be over $1M 

This increase in the cost of homeownership is making it difficult for many people to afford to buy a home. It is also leading to a decrease in home sales, as fewer people are able to qualify for a mortgage. 

But it is also difficult for the Government to afford these rates and I believe mortgage rates will mean revert over time - 2 years or so to the 3-4% level. 

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Anonymous

My niece just got a FHA for 6%

Anonymous

I sure hope that mortgage rates mean revert. I’m paying an extra $1000 per month o. My mortgage now that it’s up for renewal. That’s $12,000 a year or 120,000 i extra payments over the next decade.

Anonymous

Have to share that my first mortgage was 16.9 % and that was paying for a couple of points upfront. Late 80’s

Anonymous

Mean reversion would be higher then were we are at, unless you are only looking at the past few years.

Anonymous

i consider myself very lucky, I locked in a 3.625 on an investment multi family in January 2022 and closed in July. Local CU extended the offered rate twice while waiting for close.

Anonymous

That's disturbing. That's why I shop now, but WILL refinance when rates drop. Thankfully there are homes for sale in the parts of Mordor that I like.

Anonymous

Sign on the dotted line. Here's $1m being born, the new debt you owe forever.

Anonymous

Ok since 2009. I have not seen mortgage rates at 7 % for years. I was paying 11 % in 1988 . In 1982 interest rates were at 21 %. Since 2000 interest rates have been abnormally low.

Anonymous

Thanks James, really helps put things into perspective, a few months ago UK Government / mortgage companies were taking about lowering rates down by next year April....then gets extended, now there blaming the number of people on fixed mortgage rates over failure to curb inflation. The most recent advice from Rishi Sunak urges people to hold their nerve on interest rates. Not helpful. Do you have a more realistic estimate of where rates maybe in UK by 2024/2025?

Anonymous

Hopefully by next year we'll be able to remortgage off of our BTC, maybe to offset requirements for deposit?

Anonymous

So true. I feel bad for people looking for homes now, particularly young people looking for their first home. It’s becoming increasingly unaffordable for “average” people to afford this. I also agree with Michael Saylor that you should own bitcoin as your primary property.

Anonymous

😔 This is such a bummer for young families.

Anonymous

I locked 15yr...thinking back should have gone with the 30yr to have more investment capital monthly....2.25% and pulled a little cash out that is now invested. I do feel bad for those looking to buy their first home but now's a great time to take that down payment and make some money waiting for rates to come down again.

Anonymous

This is such a robbery. I prefer being poorer. I went through that twice. Just as well that I am now to old and ontological unfit to have mortgages. Where I am in southern Europe one cannot even have such cheap fixed rates. Fixed rates have been implemented recently for struggling families.

Anonymous

Historically, 7% rates aren’t terrible. Not great, but compared to the ridiculously low 3% rates we had a few years ago seems really high. The real issue is that the $400,000 house was $150,000 a few years ago and that’s where the financing of the principal amount hurts. Home prices have doubled/ tripled and I believe that’s the real issue.

Anonymous

Well explained,many don't understand how monthly mortgages payments go up so much with a few percent increase. Over 2 million mortgages in the UK come off there fixed rates by the end of the year and over 4 million next year. Our government have said they will get 12 months relief if they can't afford to pay. I assume that is just the extra payments that will just go on to your mortgage can't see them not accepting any payments. Just prolonging the agony for many.

Anonymous

Have home rentals also gone up? They should as affordability becomes difficult.

Anonymous

Wow. Makes my 1.95% fixed rate mortgage look like a gift!

Anonymous

Wow! Everything just sunk in with this illustration. Just wow

Anonymous

I’ve got 3 years left on my 5 year fixed at 2%. I’m hoping to pay the outstanding amount owed within that period.

Anonymous

20 years 1.5% with 50% interest only. Now let SOL go high. Broke the long term downtrend. Let's go. 💃🚀💃🚀💃🚀💃🚀🔥🔥🔥💃🔥🚀🔥💃🔥🔥🚀🔥💃🔥💃🔥🚀🔥💃🔥🚀🔥💃🔥💃🔥🔥🚀🔥💃🔥💃🔥🔥💃🔥🚀🔥🚀🔥💃🔥🚀🔥🔥🚀🔥💃🔥🚀🔥🚀🔥💃🔥🚀

Anonymous

Sold my property and bitcoined it last summer. No regrets. My reasoning being that over time, digital property (bitcoin) doesn't physically decay (value down) while the price goes up.

Anonymous

People in rich countries are trapped in their homes for decades and unable to move due to failed government policies. Thing were never like that in the past, people would move every few years on average and it was easy stuff and much cheaper too. This government push to turn people into immobile fat materialistic McMansion maintainers has turned the rich world into slaves to their own assets rather than productive and free people. It needlessly is killing economic growth (1.5% a year growth sucks!) as violently high prices prevent labor from being able to move close to well-paying jobs, and is also wildly destructive of the environment.

Anonymous

In my neighborhood there are ~6 homes for sale, and although yes the value has increased significantly seemingly nobody can afford to buy them. Normally, market supply-demand would dictate price but for some reason market supply is higher but prices remain higher.

Anonymous

Astonishing to see the actual numbers!

Anonymous

In the UK most mortgages are fixed from 2 years to 5 years and approx 4.4 million homeowners are coming out of their deals by the end of 2024 - ouch!

Anonymous

How does one afford a fixed 5 year mortgage? You mean balloon or variable?

Anonymous

And you don't have to pay taxes on something that you're not getting realized gains from. Even though I have a couple of homes, I hate real estate as an investment for the following reasons: almost zero liquidity, time and costs associated with buying and selling, property taxes, maintenance, shitty tenants.

Anonymous

I am going from 2.19% to 5.69% on 1st September. Its still a cheaper way to borrow right now otherwise I could pay off the loan by selling my assets.

Anonymous

our principle residence is paid off and i keep a rental to keep my wife happy while i buy crypto and tesla, but i don't see any returns coming from real estate in the next 10 years unless youre in a special area of the world. tenants rent pays down rental mortgage and then we hold it as a hedge against btc failing.

Anonymous

The rates change every few years. Fixed rate mortgages for the life of the mortgage are a US thing.