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Note although this is US data, it is similar all over the world. These same trends are happening in UK, Europe, Australia, etc

NOTE IT IS ALL A FORECAST, BUT THAT IS HOW WE PLAY! WE PLAY AND PLAN FOR WHERE THE PUCK IS GOING TO BE

Per the chart above, there will be a significant increase in the number of Baby Boomers selling their homes in the coming decade or more. This is due to the fact that the Baby Boomer generation is aging and many of them will be downsizing their homes. This will create a significant opportunity for real estate investors who are looking to buy Older and Larger Homes in PRIME (Excellent) locations.

  • The leading edge of the Baby Boomer generation is currently 75 years old.
  • The peak of the Baby Boomer generation will be turning 80 in 2035 or so.
  • The tail end of the Baby Boomer generation will be turning 80 in 2044.
  • Demographically there should be a pickup in Baby Boomers selling their homes in the second half of the 2020s and lasting until 2040 a 15 year window
  • These homes will be older, larger and most will need updating, but many of them will be in prime locations. So start learning your trades :D

Thanks to Sanjay for the heads up on this chart! 

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Comments

Anonymous

Charts abit wrong mate, check it out

Anonymous

can we have a video on this and characteristics that define an area that is prime locations! Thanks

Anonymous

What would one do with a big old house? Turn it into an Air B&B?

Anonymous

This was really valuable insight. Really. Thank you. Wow. This is crazy. And because boomers didn't have any kids...gl selling

Anonymous

Australia and Canada both raised their immigration targets, targeting GDP and supporting house prices. In Australia we have an influx of Chinese capital fleeing the motherland. Lots of wechat activity on where to buy in order to sublet large houses to multiple individuals. Will sqew prices here until the capital is exhausted or supply increases (as mortgage cliff is traversed)

Anonymous

Should look into the massive depopulation trend which will occur fertility rates have plummeted since our grandfathers times Also the Covid vaxx there’s going to be a gigantic gap in birth rates. Also death rate such as all causes mortality some countries are up be 60 % some 20 % but that’s going to have impact. I know you’re aware of the Covid scam so assuming you’d agree to the above. Although wouldn’t all this death & lack of birth depress the global real estate industry market cap ?

Anonymous

I Love this long term thinking. With all respect, what happens if James is gone? If either involuntarily or taking that well earned rest, will IA live on?

InvestAnswers

i will go as long as I can but AI is coming - you will not need me in the future :D - but NOW is the time I can try make a difference

InvestAnswers

The chart is not mine, but I am using it to observe the data it contains. The data does not change, so even if the chart is a year old, the data it contains is still relevant.

Anonymous

Less souls means more room Tesla Humanoid Bots which means enhanced comfortable retirement for us 🫣😜🤣 🤷‍♂️🤑 we can wave at each-other from our mansions in Thailand 🇹🇭 😆

Anonymous

Wish I were younger, took advantage of the last crash in 2009. May have to sit out this crash unless it’s something crazy good!

Anonymous

As did I but in Canada Imigration is though the roof and I now think that will more than fill the gap in the future. There may be a reduced birthrate but people will migrate to the best land/ countries and keep realestate high in the most coveted areas. IMO.

Anonymous

Great info ! Thanks James and Thanks Sanjay! Any data on when we mat get mortgage rates lowering down under 4%? I know most of it is under controls of JP, but some estimate could help us plan well to line up cash and credit both.

Anonymous

We will still need you James! There's no replacement for decades of experience , dedication, hardwork and vision you share. I doubt if any AI can provide this accurate information , that soon. May be in 2050, I don't know. But what I know is, you will be great and even more sharp by 2050, better than AI.

Anonymous

In my market investment homes are quite rapidly snatched by bigger investors.. there aren’t that many good deals like it used to be in 2008 to 2013

rscx

Hah well the jokes on them, there’s not enough smaller houses to downsize to. Perhaps a play for right now is to buy RE that baby boomers would look to move to and lift the prices since they’ll be able to afford to pay.

Anonymous

That is a good apportunity a few years from now. Thank you, I shall haunt this parket.

Anonymous

What artificial intelligence and brain-computer interfaces would be needed to transfer consciousness? The concept of transferring consciousness is currently speculative and far beyond the current capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) and brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). However, if we were to hypothesize about the possible requirements for such a feat, it might involve: Advanced AI Systems: Artificial general intelligence (AGI) that can fully understand and replicate the complexity of human consciousness would likely be a prerequisite. AGI would need to possess sophisticated cognitive abilities, self-awareness, and ensure continuity of subjective experience during the transfer process. Precise Brain Imaging and Mapping: High-resolution brain scanning techniques capable of accurately capturing the structure and function of the human brain would be necessary. This would involve nanoscale or molecular-level imaging to capture the smallest details of neural connections, synaptic strengths, and neuron-specific information. Neural Interface Technologies: Highly sophisticated BCIs would be required to establish a seamless bi-directional connection between the human brain and AI systems. These BCIs would need to read neural activity at an unprecedented level of precision, transmit it to the AI system, and receive the AI-generated conscious experience back into the brain. It would also involve simulating the sensation of embodiment. Consciousness Understanding: A complete understanding of the nature of consciousness would be essential to accurately reproduce and transfer it. This involves comprehensive knowledge of how subjective experience arises from neural processes, the integration of sensory information, emotions, and higher-order cognitive functions. Ethical Considerations: Addressing the ethical challenges associated with consciousness transfer would be crucial. This includes obtaining informed consent, ensuring the preservation of personal identity, and avoiding potential physical or psychological harm during the process. It's important to note that the idea of transferring consciousness raises numerous philosophical, ethical, and scientific debates. The current scientific understanding of consciousness is limited, and the feasibility of such a transfer is highly speculative, if not currently impossible.

BreakItDown

For a bit of fun you could train open ai today on all of the IA video transcripts …

Anonymous

Hi James - I agree with the demographic chart, but could you share the data pointing to baby boomers owning older and larger homes? I have seen data showing that baby boomers own the highest percentage of real estate of any generation. However, that data was a couple of years old. It also didn't provide detail regarding the size of the homes or where those homes were located.

Anonymous

🤔 But James, isn’t 15 years of supply coming onto the market a bad thing for supply Vs demand? 🤷‍♂️

Anonymous

Thanks James and Sanjay. I’m a realtor in Miami and work mostly with elderly clients. Older homes in prime locations as James said. Still getting above price offers and on the one I’m selling now, 2 offers waived 100k above appraisal since it was move in ready. The seller accepted a slightly lower cash offer. Cash is King. Low inventory still in Miami.

Anonymous

I bought property in 50+ retired living communities with intent to rent out until I’m ready to move into one. So far so good.

Anonymous

Bravo, Corporal_Kreigs! Much appreciated. Meanwhile, I appreciate James’ wisdom. We are fortunate to access it now even though later it will be probably become less valuable. I earned a good living primarily based on my specific knowledge in a certain area. I assume my position has been eliminated, or reduced, with AI. Meanwhile, I was able to accumulate equity/assets by having those skill sets. I feel sorry for someone with similar passions/talents entering a similar field today. No doubt over a hundred years ago there were lots of excellent buggy whip manufacturers. Today we have automotive vehicles so the need for a producer of excellent buggy whips is not needed . Hopefully, in the future there will be a need for folks who have passion and the ability to successfully harness AI. Cautiously optimistic.

InvestAnswers

smart move. i was looking at some of those also... but they are so exp on a sq ft basis and HOA are so high

Anonymous

Hoping to put some of my commissions into crypto. Do you expect any pullbacks or just DCASS? I’m about to sign up. I’m a little nervous cause I don’t get trading view completely even though I’ve watched your videos 🤪

Anonymous

This was a 2020 purchase. No HOA! I’m sure it’ll get cheaper in the coming years to buy there. Happy 4th.

Anonymous

Great chart James. Thank you for sharing. I’d be willing to bet there will be a similar impact to cars when this generation stops driving.

Anonymous

Interesting! I hate the thought of using crypto for anything other than holding. However, would it be dumb to sell a sliver to buy homes? Thoughts

Anonymous

that is an ongoing issue with cars. When I give up driving, my car is crap anyway. Those who have expensive gear will sell it as used or the kids will inherit if they wish to run big cars. ICE vehicles are going to be on the market more and more in the next couple of years as people lean toward electric transportation. Sod the lack of resources for it, but Oil is becomming scarse.

Anonymous

Maybe they are dying. 🤷‍♀️ Just sayin. My folks are baby boomers and have lost lots of friends lately. Widows move to condos or 55+ communities.

Anonymous

Great post. This is kind of like the other side of Harry Dent's predictions of when Boomers would buy up real estate. With the average age of retirement at 66 years, I wonder if this is already starting now? Presumably high net worth boomers would migrate to low tax locations and smaller homes.

Anonymous

We (My team) are in Oregon, we are allowed a Cluster Cottage subdivision on any single-family lot. Up to 14 units per lot (assuming you can meet setbacks). We have a few projects that we are in the middle of entitling. These use a 450-850 sq ft single-level home that is ADAish. We then condo these so the common space (yard) is always maintained. We are excited to see how these work out from a development perspective. This aging demographic fits very well with what we are producing. I really like to see how James pushes out data metrics/predictions 10 years out. James and the groups he has created are amazing. I have tremendous gratitude for the work he has done... Thank you!

Anonymous

Canada is a pyramid scheme,needing new suckered to pay 60 percent taxes