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Why Don't You Invest in Commodities like Gold Silver Uranium? (Patreon)

Published:
2023-04-05 22:38:56
Imported:
2023-04

Content

TLDR: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO PREDICTOR - But a good signal nonetheless. We are going into a hard asset decade but manipulation will continue. 

Over the past two years, I have been frequently asked why I exclusively invest in crypto and tech, especially given CTO Larsson's recent foray into uranium ETFs and miners. The reason is clearly illustrated in this chart above.

WHY COMMODITIES ARE NEGATIVE LAST 12 YEARS?

Commodity markets are heavily manipulated, and manipulation is driven by profit, control by big players eg JPM, speculation, and hedging. These motives can lead traders, companies, speculators, and hedgers to artificially manipulate prices, creating volatility and risks for the market. Hence Gold and silver are pretty much flat for 12 years - when you take away real purchasing power then have fallen by 40%.

So from all the asset classes above, Commodities are the worst performers with a NEGATIVE 1% return.  Meanwhile BTC and Tech stocks crush the rest.

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Comments

Anonymous

Does anyone feel Bitcoin will eventually be like the rest of commodities? Highly manipulated, not a lot of price action, etc.?

Anonymous

Thank you this is good insight as to why my mining stock just churns away

Anonymous

That's wild. I had no idea. That explains why I hear nearly everyone say HODLing commodities is a really bad idea. I honestly thought they were for trading only.

Anonymous

I am not sure this is a valid or fair comparison. The time period is too short. And comparing BTC since it's literal invention we should then throw in Facebook or Amazon pre IPO valuation and see how that compares. I just don't think this is a helpful comparison. The next 12 years will look quite different. Just look at annualized return of BTC in last 4 years or the last 25% of that time period.

rscx

So there is a big problem in this chart that is ignored, but basically everyone here already missed the huge bitcoin run up in % terms. People see the huge % gain in BTC and get blinded by the dollar signs in their eyes and think it will happen again. Which is doubtful. BTC will still have plenty of gains to be made but not like the run from $1 to $30K. Those % gains are in the past.

Anonymous

is it time to go all in on TESLA or wait for a dip?

Anonymous

Silver in year long cup and handle with target of $32

Anonymous

I love the saying Gold is money and everything else is credit. (5000+ years of history) The current fiat system is backed by the full faith and credit of the country that issues it. When the people's faith in their currency fails so will the governments credit and when it fails, hard assets like gold, silver and BTC (assuming we have energy) will remain as currency.

Anonymous

I don’t see uranium on the chart.

Anonymous

Half of all the pictures these days are not allowing us to zoom from mobile phones. I miss out for 9 hours till I get home and can pull these up on my computer

Anonymous

Beautiful, just in case I’ll get a couple of ounces of gold ✌️

Anonymous

Own little of everything. DCA into physical silver until gold/silver(platinum also) ratio tightens then sell for gold. BTC is fun money because it’s so volatile. To make money you’re stuck staring at charts all day. Hard for me working regular job. Can be hard to balance on trading days.

Anonymous

Please use log charts for stuff like this

Anonymous

James I agree with you. It took a few years of research, and trail and error to come to the same conclusion. As someone who started late trading it was a valid and valuable lesson, but also precious time and money wasted. The very short blip opportunities for gain requires algos and very precise auto trades to take advantage of gains or manipulation. In short...ALOT of effort for very little gain.