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Updated Microstrategy Arbitrage Calculator (Patreon)

Published:
2021-09-14 16:26:38
Edited:
2021-10-02 18:15:00
Imported:
2022-03

Content

Per this model - MSTR is now trading at a discount. 

Pls use this as view only.  It is continually updated so save it as a favourite. 

Old version is going away. 

Kind regards 

Files

MSTR Arbitrage Calculator for Patreon Capitalists 24SEPT21

Microstrategy Arb Calculator ,2410163628 Bitcoin PROFIT for MSTR,$2,410,163,628.00,1 BTC in MSTR,90.31760229,SHARES,$55,315.92 MSTR,$612.46,Note: Sometimes real time quotes are delayed from Yahoo and or Google by 15 mins, Pls do not change formulae - IA,Buying 1 share of MSTR means you buy,0.01...

Comments

Anonymous

Thank you James as always. Limit order from $540-$570

Anonymous

Cheers James :)

Anonymous

Thanks 🙏🏽

Anonymous

Thanks James. I was just wondering about Microstrategy right now. Looking to shift some positions to get more 👍

Anonymous

Thanks James! I missed the dip yesterday- what is the next best entry point? Still $601?

Anonymous

Thank you, Sir!

Anonymous

This is awesome and so useful. Thanks!

Anonymous

Thanks James!

Anonymous

Thanks James . I bought up a little early. Too excited to see it drop. Will work on my limit orders.

Anonymous

Thanks James. What's changed from the previous model? The recent MSTR BTC purchase?

Anonymous

Thank you, James! Is it possible to add a left side column to see what things look like in the event of a $40k BTC?

Anonymous

So this is showing a current premium (discount) of -33.48%? Or a premium of -6.26%?

Anonymous
>>67817832

Congratulations on the purchase. I bought a little too early as well, soon as BTC price goes up, your entry point will be great. It's all in the timing.👏

Anonymous

Appreciate you keeping this updated! Holding a MSTR share is like earning yield on BTC 🙂

Anonymous

Thank you! I'm holding MSTR and ETHE in an IRA account that will allow me to trade the pair against each other. Right now I'm 60/40 weighted towards ETHE and considering raising it to 75/25 and waiting for the ETH/BTC ratio to hit 0.1 then flipping to a heavy MSTR balance. I'm just having trouble hitting the sell button on some of my MSTR. It feels wrong.

Anonymous

So, if I have 230 MSTR stocks that means 230/68.22107838 = 3.3714 BTC ? Nice :)

Anonymous

Thanks, James!

Anonymous

Thanks James.. Managed to top up yesterday at $605 :)

Anonymous

Thanks very much

Anonymous

I was just pondering why MSTR is down today while BTC is up. Not sure this answers that question but certainly shows the premium is up. Questions: 1) Suggested entry point? 2) Do you believe that this is a better play (value, risk) than GBTC (seems like you hinted on the lack of ETF conversion risk yesterday)? I have a bag of GBTC that I have considered converting in my 401k, so I don't have tax consequences to consider there.

Anonymous

My 401k thanks you!

Anonymous

I love these handouts, it's great stuff. It's what we eventually do with it that counts

Anonymous

I wonder why James is not having us buy in the retire on stocks. it fits his price point and we have not bought yet. the plot thickens

Anonymous
>>67819302

I believe James stated the other day he would buy MSTR ~$600 if/when BTC dropped into the ~$43k range. That video I think was 2-3 days ago... Updates, anyone??

Anonymous

With this info I wonder if swapping some GBTC in my 401k for MSTR is a good idea

Anonymous

Hi James. Is make a copy of this model not available? I like to play around with these models.

Anonymous

Thanks IA!

Anonymous
>>67817992

The way I read it, at the MSTR-BTC prices when calculated, through MSTR you were buying BTC for an 8.68% discount to buying actual BTC.

Anonymous

Hey, James. (stop reading, UpAsFragged pointed out yesterday's 8-K which answers my question, of course you were on top of it :-)Until now I have used my own bespoke calculator, but surely yours is better. When giving this a look I could not quite square away the numbers and it appears we can no longer look under the hood (undoubtedly thanks to the internet thieves ;-) ) Can you tell me what you are using for BTC coins held? My latest number is 108,992. By your calculator, the implied BTC holdings are 114,041 (Bitcoin Value/BTC price). Did I miss a Saylor buy? Also, what are you using for MSTR share count? Are you assuming the dilution events from the Notes occur?

Anonymous

Thank you James just placed a limit order 👍

Anonymous
>>67820465

I wanted to ask James the same thing, but even with the fee of GBTC, the discount is still better than the MSTR, from my understanding. I hope James confirms this so that I know that I am right.

Anonymous

Should we concerned (due to the reg issues) about the shares we already have in our retirement accounts? Have tap shoes ready if changes need to be made…

Anonymous

Maybe this is a stupid question but can someone explain what it means by arbitrage? I've heard that used with exchanges, microstrategy, and gbtc but I don't understand it.

Anonymous

James, can you give us a quick update on Solana news today?

Anonymous
>>67821807

Arbitrage is when you can buy and sell two identical or functionally identical assets in two different way at different prices. You buy the low one and sell the high one. Assuming friction does not kill you and you can do the swap near instantaneously you make the difference less cost for essentially free. If you can buy BTC through MSTR for less than you can buy BTC, for example, you go long MSTR and short BTC. Arbitrage is just taking advantages of price differences in the market.

Anonymous

James, any thoughts on selling BRPHF for MSTR? Much appreciate your spot on updates.

Anonymous
>>67821919

This is what's causing the recent dip: https://twitter.com/SolanaStatus/status/1437784724370505732

Anonymous
>>67820932

Missed a buy - Pomp reported increased BTC holdings for MSTR yesterday

Anonymous

looks like MSTR price is way off where it should be now. Im banking on MSTR buying even more BTC until xmas

Anonymous

Here is my question and the same for GBTC.. It's great to buy the discount but what forces dictate that the market will follow and correlate to BTC price? Is price appreciation a fore gone certainty? Could the market say "nah" and discount becomes a slow price bleed?

Anonymous
>>67820087

Sure he mentioned yesterday that he wasn’t sure it was at the bottom. Sept will be rocky so it may drop lower at some point

Anonymous

Thanks James, I started investing in MSTR a little while ago, this helps so much!

Anonymous

James help I’m long should I get Gbtc or mstr ?and I don’t do calls, please let me know thank you

Anonymous

Hey James, I think I still could use a bit more help in squaring away what MSTR share count to use. From the Q2 10-K class A sh = 7,783,443, class B shares = 1,964,025, and from the 8-K published yesterday they sold 555,179 sh in Q3. (text below). So, should we be using 10,302,647 for the share count? Of course their balance sheet needs to be adjusted for the stock sales. As previously disclosed, on June 14, 2021, the Company entered into an Open Market Sale AgreementSM (the “Sale Agreement”) with Jefferies LLC, as agent (“Jefferies”), pursuant to which the Company may issue and sell shares of its class A common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“Shares”), having an aggregate offering price of up to $1.0 billion from time to time through Jefferies. On September 13, 2021, the Company also announced that during the third quarter of the Company’s fiscal year to date (the period between July 1, 2021 and September 12, 2021), the Company had issued and sold an aggregate of 555,179 Shares under the Sale Agreement, at an average gross price p

Anonymous

wow... this change just gave me a lot more BTC than I expected....

Anonymous

Thank you James, I had trap set $10 too high, made the trade in the range, good job. Nice top up

Anonymous

Thank you James for the invaluable insight.

Anonymous

This microstrategy modeling is awesome James. I think I might stick to the real deal, but thanks as always.

Anonymous

Wow! This information is exactly what I was looking for just earlier this week. Awesome work! Thank you.

Anonymous

Thanks for this info James. Truly important. Just got some MSTR a week ago.

Anonymous

Here's my version, should be the same, added some % graphs and pricing over time and some discount/ premium colorization NFA... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Yc8FKrNT9owU7LA6uVZkKeOpWK6_reoxt6iLUs7hohw/edit?usp=sharing

Anonymous

Good morning team, can anyone speak To line 27 column B-ETHE notation?

Anonymous

Awesome! Thank you James