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Cognitive Bias - Dave Lee, smart guy convinces himself each day BTC is a high risk #Cockroach (Patreon)

Published:
2021-02-13 16:43:44
Imported:
2022-03

Content

The reason I'm sharing this even though it's a long video Dan Held is every informed individual. And Dave Lee, super smart guy, after years he continues to talk himself out of investing in Bitcoin.  

LIFE LESSON #3: It's a long but a very interesting dialogue. Just thought I'd share because people will always try and talk you out of doing something that may be the right path, whether it be an investment or a life choice.  It's important to make up your own decisions and find the best path.  

Would love your thoughts? I face it every day with people online trying to convince me to go down different paths. 

Files

Is Bitcoin Just Starting Out? Invest Or Not? w/ Dan Held interview (Ep. 250)

I discuss what is Bitcoin, its strengths, possible risks, potential other blockchains, and its path ahead with Dan Held, growth lead at Kraken. Dan Held on Twitter: https://twitter.com/danheld Dan Held Substack: https://danheld.substack.com https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsXmJLugF3fwjzc-Qnoi5lQ Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 00:40 - Tesla buying BTC 4:55 - BTC as gold 2.0 6:45 - Satoshi's white paper 9:30 - Why BTC has not evolved to a payment system 11:50 - Metaverse currencies 15:07 - BTC's proof of work 20:55 - BTC vs other cryptocurrencies 24:13 - BTC vs centralized crypto 31:48 - What's the point of BTC? 37:40 - Is BTC too deflationary? 43:33 - BTC dumping risk 48:54 - Existential risk for BTC 57:25 - Corporations more powerful than nations? 1:04:00 - Can BTC encryption be cracked? 1:16:45 - Explanation of BTC as a "risk-free" asset 1:24:25 - Demand for BTC's effect on price 1:30:00 - BTC risk from other cryptos 1:50:50 - Kraken growth 1:54:50 - Conclusion Social 🐦 Twitter https://mobile.twitter.com/heydave7 🎧 Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dave-lee-on-investing/id1493031991 🎙️Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2iin015s0k21Bt4ldep9XT?si=uBV4Ft8hQEu_GE4YSIDDGg 📸 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/heydave7 💁🏻‍♂️ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA, LMND, SQ, and other stocks at time of original video publish date. Buying a Tesla? 🚗 Car: Use my referral link to receive 1,000 free Supercharger miles with the purchase of a new Tesla. http://ts.la/david7556 ☀️ Solar: You’ll get $100, I’ll get $500 for a new install of a Tesla solar system. http://ts.la/david7556 Videos: Tesla ONLY Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9QkDHJ5hbv5rMvpRse9C-re SpaceX Starlink ONLY Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9QrcuyoiO1tjQs_yzer72EI Square ONLY Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9Q3PIw2JOQr4qoL_fSrIZA7 Lemonade ONLY Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9StEd21tlQBndopSTek8iAZ Company Analysis Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9QMjeqM7he4G7FLhI88ZXdo Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9QdC6pEaycZvv3pGyvEbO8P Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Comments

Anonymous

Thanks for sharing. I was blown away by Ark Invest’s crypto analyst, Yassine’s responses to David L about two months ago in a similar interview. After watching, I went in even harder because in my estimation, Yassine dismantled the arguments in such a systematic, coherent and intelligent way. David actually came across looking a bit silly by comparing BtC to traditional equity plays etc. For those that haven’t seen it, do watch. https://youtu.be/DLMJGs4yARw

Anonymous

IA - Bloomberg is reporting that a complete crypto ban is coming in India. Transacting on foreign exchanges will also end up being prohibited. It’s believed that those who currently own digital assets will be given up to six months to liquidate their investments. What are the odds of happening something like this here in north america?

Anonymous

Invest in whatever allows you to sleep well at night.

InvestAnswers
>>53546986

Tay thank you for sharing. I can't tell you how many people tried to convince me not to buy bitcoin or to sell it over the last three years. And some of these people were very convincing and very smart - so the lesson here is be careful because it nearly becomes religious for them to fight against it. Roubini and Schiff are two classic examples as well.

InvestAnswers
>>53547227

We have political leaders that own bitcoin, we have cities that are embracing bitcoin, we have states that are setting up crypto banks, we have the biggest companies in the world making bitcoin part of the treasury, and we have Wall Street - the Dominos there are falling one by one. The US is all about freedom and taking away bitcoin is like taking away freedom of speech or guns! We have almost zero risk. Canada is also in the same boat (except guns).

Anonymous

So glad you passed on this video (saw it a few days ago)! I've been a long-time follower of Dave Lee on the Tesla side, but his bearish views on Bitcoin bely his intelligence on Tesla, even when interviewing really intelligent Bitcoiners. Really hurts my head to think about. Glad I listened to multiple viewpoints when I stated looking into Crypto, including Invest Answers!

Anonymous

Mike Saylor had an interesting angle. He looks at this from an engineering and physics angle. As long as a better technology is not invented, and then widely adopted, BITCOIN should stand the test of time. This ties into metcalfs law and networking effects. It’s hard to overturn existing technologies unless there is much better attributes than the system is replaces. Engineering, maths, physics. https://youtu.be/KK7ZomgQlkI

Anonymous

Dan Held is great. Super informed and helpful (Held report/blog). Engaging on twitter/etc. Really good advocate for the "cautious" approach to Bitcoin of just buying it and holding it... Likely a huge factor for getting loads of new investors to buy at least a small bitcoin position, which is really good and healthy for the overall future and value of bitcoin.

InvestAnswers
>>53553754

Hurts my head also. But I can understand his negativity- it’s a common trait amongst those with no #BTCBags

Anonymous

IA, just heard the entire thing. In truth DL likes to overthink things and in some ways is trying to encourage others to do the same, especially when the belief can come across as slightly fanatical to the uninformed. This is probably the case with his views on BtC, which whilst I disagree with, at least he’s willing to have the debate. I don’t think he’s being sneaky or ‘cockroach esq like many others out there.

Anonymous

I have always found it so interesting that lots of the doubters/haters talk about it has no product or no intrinsic value. Something only has value if someone else believes it has value and therefore will accept it as a trade for goods/services. Throughout time different items have been considered valuable. Salt was a currency, gold was, many others and then fiat currencies. As some (and its growing) people now will accept btc has a holding value, and it can be used for the procurement of goods/services it actually now does has intrinsic value to many. And for those who say its not gold, gold is a product, you can hold gold etc. Well, gold is a lump of stuff that comes out of the group. In theory it should have no more value than a stone. But it has a value because people prescribe to have a value. It's also scarce (like BTC, but not as scarce as it). Therefore its value is in that people will accept it theoretically as payment for goods/services (tho really for cash). Sound familiar? The reality these people are missing is that nothing has value unless people assign it value. And mass adoption of fiat currency is in value. And adoption of BTC is growing. We are early (not as early as I would like to have been) and the tide is flowing our way. Maybe younger people have an easier time of understand that as they are growing up in a more service based economy where they pay for experiences and services.

Anonymous

I've listened to David's video that Tay referenced above in addition to this one. I think Dan characterized David's position pretty well with the rebuttal, "you're directionally correct, but orders of magnitude [off]" ( https://youtu.be/hKpsB6nNerU?t=3985 ) I've said as much in response to David's earlier video in the comments section. People typically don't think exponentially and I think that's really at the root of what causes David's BTC skepticism. I can recognize it because I had the same issue at one point.

Anonymous
>>53553860

Lol. " Its physics, math, engineering. Machine it, draft it, build it, test it, break it. Every time something new gets built the entire world advances." - Mike Patey - builder of bush planes.

InvestAnswers
>>53574804

Well said Shawn. Dave is a wonderful person but I feel for him. We need an intervention

InvestAnswers
>>53559152

Tay you framed it perfectly. I feel for him and I want to help him. I love his mind and his approach. His blindfold is what I want to help him remove. I would love to debate him live online and bring him over to the future.

Anonymous

David's "interview" of Yassine was excruciating because David used his extremely long winded questions to present his arguments against bitcoin. Yassine was excellent (like Dan), so I prefer watching the abbreviated clips featuring Yassine. The current interview is better in that David's questions are more concise. This interview is more interview than debate. If David is overthinking the issues, he seems to be doing so without acknowledging or learning from key points made by his guests. David selects great guests, but I would not listen to David's interview if it were not posted here

InvestAnswers
>>53608080

Dave Lee had a great video a while back and you talked about his upbringing and how he was both physically and mentally abused and then his time in Korea so he has some scar tissue that makes him ultra conservative. Anyway good guy I just hate to see a good guy go down the wrong path. And it makes me think how can we change him and I'd love to debate him one on one.

Anonymous

I have noticed that many who picked up Tesla early have good eye for companies with physical products. Something that Bitcoin has it's value purely in it's network and intangible features. Many seem to struggle to understand these effects.

Anonymous

At 1:56, Dan mentions the monthly Dan Held report subscription: https://danheld.substack.com/subscribe

Anonymous

Fantastic conversation! I learned a lot.