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The much anticipated prospect cards are now live to Patreon subscribers.

Here is the link to request access. There's a chance, as always, that GMail will think I'm spamming people with emails and stop sending out my "Access Granted" messages, so if you don't get a response, check back within half an hour.

This sheet includes two different cards:

  • 2021 Draft Cards contain every player eligible for the 2021 NHL Entry draft 
  • NHL Prospect Cards contain every current prospect whose rights are owned by an NHL team (prospect defined as a player with <82 GP who was drafted in 2016 or later.

These cards visualize Patrick Bacon's NHLe model, which he broke down in a four-part series on Medium.  NHLe is a model that translates a player's point results in non-NHL leagues into an "NHL equivalency" using past results from thousands of other players. Using this database and other player information, it formulates a projection of how likely it is that a player will

  • Make the NHL: i.e. play 200+ games in the National Hockey League with a positive Wins Above Replacement rating
  • Become a Star in the NHL: i.e. achieve a career Wins Above Replacement per 82 games at the 81st percentile or higher.

This isn't gospel and shouldn't be treated as such, but it is a very interesting way of evaluating future players. For example, Brayden Point ranked 15th in NHLe in his draft year but ended up going 79th in the draft. 

I am not a prospects guy at all (especially for somebody employed by EliteProspects), but I hope that you guys enjoy this as an interesting way to learn more about the upcoming draft and some of the players in your favourite team's system.

More to come soon (I've been hard at work updating the Roster Builder for the 2021-22 season, and Historic (2007-08 to 2020-21) cards will be ready for August as well.)

Jack


Comments

Mike McMahon

Request mcmahonmj@gmail.com

kwaz

doesn't let me change which player i'm looking at, just have access to the spread sheet and the already preloaded cards of a few various prospects. no drop down menu on the names like on WAR cards normally. joshkwasnicki9@gmail.com