Forward Cards - Explainer (Patreon)

This public blog post will explain how to read, understand, and draw meaning from my forward player cards. They are designed to communicate complex information clearly and quickly, but if you don't understand some analytics terms there still might be a bit of a learning curve. So I'm going to go step-by-step.

The header is self-explanatory - player name, the team he plays for, and the position he plays. On the Patron-exclusive sheet, the player name is a drop-down menu from which the user can choose any player who has played over 10 games this season.

These are the graphs that make up the bulk of the cards.

• 3-Season Weighted GAR: Shows a player's full season goals above replacement in three situations: even strength (offence and defence), the powerplay, and the penalty kill. This number is weighted to favour the current season, but includes the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons as well. The percentage below is the league-wide percentile of this figure, and the graph shows the percentile of each situation. GAR is sourced from EvolvingHockey.
• 3-Season WAR Timeline: Shows a player's total 82-game wins above replacement in each of the past three seasons, and presents a timeline line graph to visualize how this has changed over time. The percentage below is the league-wide percentile of the figure. WAR is sourced from EvolvingHockey
• 3-Season Weighted EV Points: Show's a player's production rate in goals, primary assists, and points - all in a per 60 minute rate. It also shows a player's shooting skill, as found in Micah Blake McCurdy's Magnus model. The percentage below is the league-wide percentile of this figure, and the graph shows the percentile of G, A1, and P1 per 60. 

This section is designed to simplify the presented data and make it more legible to the layman who may not understand GAR and WAR.

• The Five-Star Ratings: Reference the percentiles in each of the categories below. In the example above, Connor McDavid is below the 19th percentile in defence, so he is a 1-star defensive player. He is a 76th percentile penalty killer, so he is a 4-star penalty killer. If a player is elite in a category (95th percentile or higher), their stars are gold. 
• Market Value: The market value calculation uses Dom Luszczyczyn's formula that relates wins to cap dollars. Based on the weighted 3-season wins above replacement a player provides, this number estimates what a player's value is based on that model. This is often imprecise and very often unrepresentative of what a player would actually receive as a free agent; nonetheless, it gives an indication of the on-ice value a player provides in terms that hockey fans understand.