Mine & Harrys Punchestown Day 4 Tips 🏇📝 + Football/ Darts NAP Double ⚽️🎯 + Staking Plan Explained 📊 READ POST CAREFULLY (Patreon)

Done a recap on Tiktok of day 3 at punchestown, Opposite of day 2 for me, where I’d 3 winners from 3 & Harry’s tips didn’t go his way, then yesterday I’d a bad day and both of Harry’s NAP & Horse at 9/2 (5.50) Won, nature of gambling and important to understand we don’t win every day and that’s why we follow the staking plan strictly, then the darts treble was frustrating, Smith won 6-2, Van gerwen averaged 103 had 3 match darts to win and lost 6-5, & Cullen 180 count was 2-2, before last night we won 8 from 9 darts bets, can’t win them all & that’s why we’ve the points system in place daily.

it’s been a tricky punchestown festival overall so far in comparison to the unreal results we had at Cheltenham & Aintree, still 2 more days of the festival to go and then we look ahead to large stake bet which will be up later this week.

Another tricky day of racing I’ve went with 4 horses, only 2 of which are favourites. whether you follow us both or not is personal preference we profited 125 points between us combined at Cheltenham & Aintree, new members quick to judge is frustrating for us both, please follow our tips for a month then kindly give us a feedback,

4:15 🕰️ - READ CAREFULLY

EL Barra - 15/2 (8.50) - Each Way

On Bet 365 ‘Each way extra’ I’m advising 7 places instead of 4).

0.5 point each way

10/1 if going with 4 places each way.

A horse which I tipped here last year and won for us at 14/1 (15.00) that was his only run ever at this track, although tends to run on good to soft conditions 2 of the 3 wins out of last 6 rides was here at punchestown last year April 30th although trip is extended from 2m to 2 mile 5 furlongs, also won a maiden hurdle prior the punchestown victory winning at Fairyhouse at finishing well clear of a decent sort ‘Buddy Rich’ outclassed at Cheltenham in the turners, finished a close 3rd at Fairyhouse back in January to a consistent sort ‘thedevilscoachman’ on paper fighter allen looks the one to beat for Willie Mullins however claims to be made for El Barra with the each way places, main concern would be stamina levels over this extended trip of 2 mile 5 furlongs.

4:50 🕰️

Elimay Win - 4/5 (1.80)

Market drift this morning would be slight concern, would tend to prefer good to soft conditions however has won on good to yield conditions before including here in 2019 bolting up by 17 lengths over a similar trip as today, latest run here was 2020 finishing 2nd by a nose, was a close final furlong at Cheltenham last month when winning for us at 9/4 (3.25), on paper looks the one to beat for Willie Mullins which he rates.

6:00 🕰️

Stateman - Cover Bet 2 Places (More markets) - 5/6 (1.83)

This selection means Win however if finishes 2nd it’s void/money back.

Originally odds of cover bet posting to elite Vip last nights have now shortened a good bit & probably best off straight win, personal preference on angle straight win is better value wise but cover bet safer option for ROI. Impressive winner at Cheltenham in field of 26, step up in trip and on paper looks the one to beat for Willie Mullins & the in form jockey Paul townend.

6:35 🕰️ A race which me & Harry are clashing on if your unsure who to go with, avoid.

Billaway Win - 6/5 (2.20)

Drift in market would be my main concern currently 2nd Fav, ‘Vaucelet’ is the odds on favourite at time of posting, for those remember we had at Cheltenham when I met ex co owners in the airport and they said the cheek pieces will do him will up the final furlong which proved to show when witnessing 1 of the past comebacks of all time, looked beaten before finding a burst of speed final few strides, despite making 1 or 2 mistskes early on only has ran here at punchestown once which was last year over similar distance finishing 2nd by a nose to ‘Bob and Co’ a horse which is a consistent sort, on paper a 2 horse race & I’m going against the favourite ‘Vaucelet’ Good to yielding Ground conditions would be my main concern, Paddy Mullins on board.

Treble on the 4:50, 6:00, & 6:35 selections is 5.50/1 (6.50) advising 1 point (1%) on the Treble, 2 points on each as singles.

Football/Darts NAP Double ⚽️🎯

Sevilla vs Cadiz over 4.5 Cards (You can add this selection via Bet 365 bet builder feature) - Spain La liga - 8pm 🕰

Danny Noppert Win - Darts European Tour - 7:30pm 🕰

Odds - 6/5 (2.20)

Advising stake 4 Points (4%)

12 of my last 14 advised card selection bets have won, (85.71%), sevillas last game was 1 of them, similar scenario as their game vs Levante, this is a clash between 2 sides at the top and bottom of the table, with just 5 league games left Sevilla sit in 3rd 2 points behind atletico in 4th & 6 points ahead of betis in 5th, Cadiz are just 1 point above the relegation zone and Mallorca are only 1 point above them so there final few games are huge in regards to staying up, Cadiz last game featured 8 yellows & a red, whiles sevillas registered 6 yellows. Both teams last 2 games had over 4.5 overall,

67% of Cadiz games this season & seen over 4.5 while 57% for Sevilla, Cadiz average 2.85 cards per game over 33 player, while Sevilla 2.64, combined average of 5.49 per game.

Referee for tonight is Jose Sanzhez in his last 30 games he’s averaged 4.96 cards per game not including 4 reds, all of his last 7 Spain La liga games has seen over 4.5 cards landing, with counts of 5, 6, 6, 6 yellows 1 red, 6, 6, 5.

All of his last 9 games in charge of either Sevilla or Cadiz has seen over 4.5 cards also.

In his last 167 games he averages 5.98 cards per game. Despite their most recent H2h January 3rd having a low foul count of 13 & 1 yellow. On paper because of League circumstances for both and multiple reasons above I expect a scrappy Affair between these sides in the final quarter of this game.

World number 12 Danny Noppert in decent form in 2022 he won the Uk open last month beating Michael smith 11-10 in the final, he then followed up 14 days later making it to the semi final of players championship 6 & then also the semi final of player championship 9 12 days later, along the way to the final he registered a 6-4 win over Gary Anderson and 6-1 win over michael van gerwen in the quarter final, his opponent Today world number 37 Jermaine Wattimena has lost 4 of his last 5 games, and then the games which he’s won throughout 2022 have not been comfortable, and he’s consistently been registering averages of less than 90 this year, last month he also went on a bad run losing 7 out of 8 games played from March 4th to March 26th. Noppert most recent meeting with Wattimena was in the European tour February 29th 2020, and Noppert averaged 108.96 winning 6-2, on paper hes the better player and has better consistency on stage with his trebling & doubling %.

HARRYS HORSE TIPS WHICH ARE SEPARATE TO MINE ⬇️

Punchestown day 3 - Harrys Tips (These are separate to mine)

3:40- AN DROICHEAD GORM @6/4 (1.5pts)

This horse changed hands and produced a brilliant 2nd in Wexford last year just behind singing banjo who was 2nd in the la touche yesterday and ran a huge race. He then went on to ease home in a maidin PTP to freshen him up for today and he will have been aimed at this race all year. The numbers on that 2nd behind singing banjo look good enough and he has a capable 7lb claimer on his back today. Alpha male has a good record around here and this will have been his target all year but he is now 11 and bar Shin a vee only one 11yr old has won since 2002 and he doesn’t bring his best form into this race. My only concern would be Jigginstown king. He pulled up on debut but has nice pedigree and he’s from last years winning trainer who has also booked the top claiming jockey around so I’d expect a good run from him only being 5 though he might need to experience.

4:15- FIGHTER ALLEN @3/1 (1.5pts)

I am very surprised he is this big a price, he has by far the best form when 2nd to Stattler on his chasing debut after a break when having that opponent scrubbing coming into the home straight. He then had excuses next time out before cantering home in tramore against some decent rivals which would have been a very good warm up for today. On figures I have him a good bit ahead of the rest and Willie Mullins has won this 5 times in the last 6 years and 8 times in the last 14 years. His numbers look a good bit better than French dynamite and only one horse ever has carried more than 11-10 and that was back in 2002 so blue sari has a lot to do. A 5 year old has never won this race which rules out a few. I’m expected a big run from a horse who’s stable is in flying form, also in the last 4 years the winners have been priced 11/4 or less.

4:50- cover bet 2 places SCARLET AND DOVE @5/2 (1 point)

This by far looks the value bet in this race. The first two in the betting look streets ahead of the rest and they are closely matched on recent runs. Elimay just touched off the selection in Cheltenham at the line but our selection looked to be travelling the best turning the home straight and made a poor jump at the last which knocked her momentum but still stayed on very well. There is a 3lb turn in the weights in our favour today which is an added bonus. Elimay is 4/6 and scarlet and dove is 4/1 which is extremely better value. She is lighter raced and had an easier campaign so might be just that bit fresher today.

6:00- NAP⭐️ STATEMAN @6/5 (3pts)

This is a two horse race between the top two in the betting as they are miles clear on numbers. Stateman’s win in Cheltenham and three stripe life’s 2nd behind Sir Gerhard are very closely matched on numbers but stateman is open to more more progression. He is lightly raced and progressed a huge amount to win last time out and has been rested since, this step up in trip looks ideal and Mullins is in flying form. This race favours 5 year olds with 7 of the last 11 being 5, 7/11 have been 10/3 or less in the betting, raced in the past 52 days, had at least 4 previous hurdle runs and 2 previous hurdle wins, stateman ticks all these boxes. Three strips life has had a very tough campaign and he might be worn out at the end of the season today.

6:35- VAUCELET @11/10 (2pts)

Again this is a two horse race. Billaway has had a tough race in Cheltenham and he tends to make a few mistakes. I think he prefers a cut in the ground and got a bit outpaced last time. The drying ground today won’t be a help and my preference is for Vaucelet. He’s won 6 of his last 7 starts including a champion hunters in stratford last year. He had a nice comeback PTP this year before an easy win in Fairyhouse recently ahead of a very good horse rated 140. That wasn’t a tough race and he should strip even fitter again today. He is a very progressive horse and there has been great support for him in the market over night. My only concern is that the last 7 year old to win has been in 2012 but this trainer knows how to get one ready.

7:10- EL FABIOLO @4/6 (too short for single bet, include in your own accas)

Not going to be a massive write up. His form behind Jonbon is streets ahead of the rest, he’s unexposed and progressive. Clearly the Mullins first string and on paper should get his head in front today.

7:45 DON CHALANT @9/4 (1pt)

He brings the best form into this race with his last two seconds in Navan behind a very good bumper horse who has ran against facile vega. His numbers come out best and he looks the Mullins first string today. On form it looks a two horse race today and Don chalant deserves to get his head in front.

My Staking Plan / Points System 📊

I advise a staking plan here is how it’s explained ⬇️

Following my advised stakes you’ll make good Profit long term 🚀

Basically when I mention points it’s % of your balance so if I say 5 points it means 5% of your balance.

So for example if your balance is €100 and I advise 5 points that’s €5 stake.

If your balance was €1,000 and I advise 5 points then it’s €50 stake etc.

The more points I advise on something the more confident I am in the selection Winning.

Fancies are selections I’d be less confident with in comparison to my point advised bets so recommend no more than 1-2 points (1-2%)

AS MENTIONED ABOVE TOUGH CARD AT PUNCHESTOWN HENCE WHY RECOMMEND TO LOWER STAKES OVERALL, ANY ABUSE SENT TO ME, HARRY, OR ANOTHER MEMBER AFTER A LOSER ETC. YOU WILL BE REMOVED FROM PATREON, BE SENSIBLE, BE RESPONSIBLE & LETS MAKE IT ANOTHER PROFITABLE DAY, GOOD LUCK TO ALL HAVING A BET!