Cheltenham Tuesday Horse/ Thread 🏇 (HORSE RELATED ONLY) (Patreon)

This is more of a discussion and people’s opinion/verdict be sensible with your stakes following other Members, remember you guys are on here to follow my tips, this is more of a chat, and if your not somewhat educated with horse racing please don’t just pick out random horses for the sake of it.

If your advising a Horse Tip I recommend sharing a bit of Reasoning/Research along with your selection.

Harry’s Horse Tips will be edited into this post with a notification.

Just to clarify Harry sent me his tips for 1st 2 races after I already picked mine out and before sending them to anyone so a good sign that were on the same page with them 2 races,

Cheltenham Day 1

1:30- Constitution hill @5/2:

In the last 9 years of this race 7 of them have been won between Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and I am expecting another winner to come from these two again. I will start off with who we are ruling out. When it comes to Cheltenham previous stats are key, in the last 11 years the highest winner has been at a price of 10/1 and 9/12 winners in the last 12 years have been in the top 3 in the betting. The main stat in crossing horses off is 12 out of the last 12 winners have had 2 runs this season. With this information and what I have seen in previous runs I can rule out Jpr one, Silent revolution, shallwehaveonemore and bring on the night. 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 5 and 6, Kilcruit does not suit this stat, he was a revelation in bumpers but isn’t the same animal over hurdles. He has twice been overturned when odds on fav but did win last time out although against modest competition. I don’t feel like he’s able for this class and I am happy to rule him out. This leaves us with Dysart dynamo, Constitution hill, Jonbon and Mighty potter. Dysart dynamo has won two hurdles in emphatic style of late but those wins haven’t been against near the opposition he faces today. On both of those runs he jumped very novicey and got in very tight to the hurdles on a number of occasions especially when the pace began to lift. I can see this race being a stiff test from the front and I don’t think his jumping will hold up, I can even see him falling, from this reasoning I can rule him out. Jonbon was an extremely exciting recruit but hasn’t seems to progress as I thought he would, I have him closely matched with Constitution hill based off their runnings against Might I. Constitution hill’s win was far more impressive over that rival and is still open to much more improvement, I don’t see Jonbon beating the selection. This leaves us with 2. Mighty potter had a very impressive win in Leopardstown last time out when beating three stripes life who was since placed in the tattersalls novice hurdle. This race is notorious for producing winners of the supreme novice hurdle with 4 horses in the last 12 years to win in this race have gone on to win the supreme. Mighty potter still looked green that day and babyish when hanging his head to the left and I can see him improving on today, I think he’ll run a cracking race but I don’t think he’ll have the class for Constitution hill. The selection has only 2 runs over hurdles but has won them in great style, most recently in Sandown when beating Might I in great fashion. When asked he quickened up in great style and looks to have that extra gear that some of these horses lack. On that day in Sandown he won on heavy going and never looked to be stopping, I can see him jumping with most fluency and having too much speed getting up that Cheltenham hill.

Win selection- Constitution hill @5/2

E/W selection- Mighty potter @13/2

2:10- Blue Lord @9/2:

This race has a very strong stat checklist. 11 of the last 11 winners have been aged between 6-7 and 7 of the last 8 have been weighted 11-4. 15 of the last 17 winners were 8/1 of less. There has only been one 8 year old to win in the last 19 years. Taking this information and after looking at previous races I have narrowed it down to Edwardstown, Riviere D’etel, Blue lord and Haut en couleurs. Haut en couleurs is very inconsistent in his jumping and his win on his penultimate run was against much poorer competitors then today, also being 5 and still learning his trade I can rule him out. Rivière D’etel looked to have the race won last time out when up against Blue lord until pecking on landing at the last and giving the lead to Blue lord, Rivière D’etel did rally very well after that and many would think the Cheltenham hill would suit her however on that day they were racing over 2 miles 1F and 43 yards Where as todays trip is 1 mile 7F and 199 yards. Both her pedigree and previous runs suggest the step down in trip won’t help and being a 5 year old and weighted 10-11 she doesn’t suit the stats, I can rule her out. This leaves us with 2. Edwardstown has been very impressive this season but has had an extremely busy schedule and I think he has been over run, his previous run ahead of third time lucki wasn’t all that impressive and he has a fairly poor record around cheltenham which is key, he is also 8 years old and looks a bit too exposed compared to Blue lord. Only one 8 year old in the last 19 years have won and I can rule him out from this information. That leaves us with 1 left, the selection Blue lord. Blue lord had beaten Riveire D’etel last time out and although the runner up made a bad mistake at the last the selection looked to have a better turn of foot and was travelling best to the last, I feel as though this step down in trip will suit the selection and there is also a 2lb benefit for the selection on these two last run. The selection is still very unexposed and looks to be the most progressive, Leopardstown is also a great track to emulate Cheltenham with 6 previous winners winning at Leopardstown and that can be said about Blue lord with his previous win being in Leopardstown . Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 10 of this race and I’m expecting him to make is 5. Blue lord fits all the stats and his form is there to back it up.

3:30- Adagio E/W 3 places @22/1:

the stats vary for this race but it does seem to favour the favourite with 7 out of the last 11 favourites winning. Although I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see honeysuckle win I do think she can be beaten this year! Appreciate it had romped home in last years supreme in very impressive fashion. This was not the plan for him though, he was meant to take to chasing this season but that plan was delayed by an injury, many might think this is a Mullins shock as he’s been off for a year but I think he won’t be primed for this race, it was never the target and I don’t see him being fully race fit. Teahupoo is a very exciting prospect but he did have a very tough race not too long ago, it was on heavy ground and he’s had a busy enough winter campaign. Epatante looks to be past her best and I don’t see her figuring. My preference is for Adagio. A 5 year old has only won this event once in the last 12 years and that was Espoir D’allen. Although he is still learning his trade he is gradually improving and looked to have Goshen beaten last time out on his favourite track Sandown over his favourite trip and conditions which is some going. Goshen would be in contention for this race if he was able to handle the track, so that run last time looks very impressive. Adagio has a very good record around here running 4 times, he won once and was second 3 times. He loves the track, he can handle a little cut in the ground and looks a very progressive 5 year old, I’m expecting a very bold bid.

5:30- Stattler @5/2:

I have this affair between the selection and run wild Fred. Gordon Elliot has a great record in this race winning it 4 times in the last 12 years and run wild Fred looks a well supported favourite. He was 2nd in the Irish national and produced a few nice runs since that but my preference is for the Willie Mullins trained Stattler. Stattler is a very unexposed horse at the age of 7 with this being only his 3rd run over fences, he had a very impressive win last time out when beating Farouk D’alene in naas over 25F Where he seemed to be able to power up the hill just like I hope he will in Cheltenham today. He looks a very exciting staying prospect and looks to improve from each run. He seems a horse with more room for improvement and I think the step up in trip will be ideal. Mullins knows how to win the race winning it twice in the last 12 years and I’m expecting him to have improved on a huge amount from his last run.

Good luck to everyone having a Bet, Read carefully mine & Harrys horse tips are separate,

As mentioned above Just to clarify Harry sent me his tips for 1st 2 races after I already picked mine out and before sending them to anyone so a good sign that were on the same page with them 2 races, Roll on the week ahead.