Italy 🇮🇹 vs Spain 🇪🇸 Analysis + Fancies, 14/1 (15.00) Bet Builder & Horse Fancy 🏇 (Patreon)

Martin Adam’s in Prime position to Win group A currently 1st heading into tomorrow & now priced @ 4/6 🎯

Personally think the other Euros semi final tomorrow looks to show more value, but here’s my analysis & fancies.

Italy have won 12 of their last 13 matches heading into this one and that makes them worthy favourites. Spain have drawn 1-1 with Switzerland and Poland in recent matches and this will be the 1st real test, Spain have won just once in 90 minutes at this tournament and Italy have won 4 of their 5 games without extra-time. Both teams have a combined 23 goals in this tournament, Italy have scored the 1st goal in 16 of their last 17 matches, High rate Italy’s keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, if this match goes to a penalty shootout I’ll be backing Italy to Qualify in play, Referee for the match is from Germany Felix Brych he averages 3.30 yellows in last 43 matches, he his hot and cold with handing them out but expect this semi final to be cagey with higher foul rate for both.

Football Double ⚽️⚽️ (Bet Builder)

Odds - 6/5 (2.20)

Italy vs Spain Under 3.5 Goals

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Italy vs Spain Under 10 Corners

Advising stake 3 points (3% of balance)

Reasoning:

I think this semi final could be an anti climax to most people’s expectations, wouldn’t be surprised if finished 0-0 which is 7/1 (8.00), Under goals market being well supported, if I had to learn towards 1 side Winning / Qualifying it would have to be Italy,

Spain similar to England going forward on average don’t see many corners against decent opposition, either side taking a 1-0 lead tonight will likely see them sit back and parking the bus holding possession which likely see a low corner count overall.

Fancies :

Sergio Busquests to be carded - 9/4

Over 3.5 Cards - 5/6

Over 4.5 Offsides - 5/6

Italy to Qualify - 7/10

Bet Builder 4 Fold pays 14/1 (15.00)

Note: Bet 365 are offering €10 free bet on this match so these fancies as a Treble or 4 Fold looks decent on paper.

*Fancies* are selections I’d be less confident with in comparison to my point advised bets, so max stake I advise on them is 1-2 points (1-2%)

Horse Fancy 🏇

Course - Roscommon 5:25

Horse Name - Banbridge

Odds - Evens (2.00)

Was looking at this horse last night at 6/4 now backed into Evens which is good sign being well supported in the exchange, left debut run behind when winning at Killarney bumper in May, impressive hurdle debut at Punchestown last time out winning in a field of 25 over soft ground, same ground conditions today. Step up in trip looks to suit, and on paper looks likely for the hatrick today.

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