Top ORC signals since April, understanding ORC (Patreon)

BTC is preparing for a big move to the upside.

BTC dominance has bottomed at below 40% which historically has been the signal that indicates that money might start flowing soon from ALTs into BTC. 

This might take days or weeks. 

If this happens it will cause BTC to pump heavy to the upside, whenever this happens most ALTs tend to suffer while some of them still manage to mimic BTC but only a handful of them, the most bullish ones usually.

Also if BTC starts running very HOT expect multiple false positives from ORC SELL. 

ORC performance

Let's have a look at the performance of ORC. 

First of all let's make sure we are in the same page. 

There is no mysterious signal that can read the future using any sort of dark magic. 

All indicators use some combination of probabilities, stochastic, or even artificial intelligence to model a scenario with the intention to forecast the answer to a given question. 

In this quick update we will look all the signals that ORC has fired since April 2021.

I'm going to focus on the ones that were more assertive. 

If you look at the included chart I have added some red and green arrows. 

As I mentioned before, ORC uses multiple different indicators and in this diagram you can see them all independently firing at different times.

The goal of ORC is to:

- not missed a top or bottom

- reduce to the minimum possible the number of false positives (without compromising missing any actual significant tops or bottom.

As you can see the way ORC is fine-tuned currently, it does not missed any TOP or BOTTOM while it still shows plenty of false positives.

The 3 most significant dumps since April are shown in percentages in the chart as well: 50%, 29% and 18%. 

All of them were found by ORC. 

Although ORC has been only available for a short time so we didn't manage to take advantage of it in the past 2 drops.

As you probably are noticing, I really want you guys to NOT see ORC as a magic recipe that will be 100% correct. 

So look at this performance and make sure you are happy with the way this will orchestrate your bots. 

You probably have a full range of bots from very conservative to very risky bots. 

Many of them only will perform during mild drops in price. So have a think if you really want to use CADaMP (close all deal at market price) or just go with stop bot.

In the future I might introduce a second version of ORC that could be more edgy: 

X-ORC: a version of ORC that won't always be able to forecast all TOPs and BOTTOMs, but it will aim to catch the most extreme ones only based on technicals. The risk of this one is that you might end up missing the exit on a big top.

At the moment this is only an early thought and I'm not yet convinced it would be a good idea.

Our current version, as I mentioned before, aims to catch ALL of them at the price of having extra false positives.

Exactly! Nothing comes for free.

Spend some time looking at each of the 3 indicators. Check the most assertive signals shown with arrows and the rest of them. 

How would your bots perform if they got all these signals during this whole period? would your balance be higher or lower? my personal answer is it depends, from May and including all the bear market it would have been great to have CADaMP on, and then during August to use STOP bots, but them on 7th of September CADaMP was a great way to dodge the damage...And now, if we are heading to another BTC pump, it could well be that the beset alternative is to only STOP them, but if the start seeing daily bearish divergences to go back to CADaMP. I'm going to keep using for a while CADaMP and see how it goes. 

But I do want you to have a good think about it too.