Can we break this BTC downtrend? (Patreon)

We've been in this daily descending channel for 41 days.

Every time we go below it gets bought.

And every time we go above, shorts destroy any chances of a breakout (see 1, 2 ,3 4 and 5). 

But no pattern lasts forever and this pattern has a clear expiry date to decide its final move.

The latest expiry is determined by the descending triangle (in yellow) formed by the lower lows 30K together with our descending channel. 

If the descending channel ends up squashing the price down against the 30K range it will be forced to either breakdown to lower levels or breakout to our next bull targets.

The range for this large triangle pattern would be a move of 10K: the heigh of the triangle, and the target depends on where in this triangle the pattern effectively breaks. 

In the hypothetical example below, if we exited this formation at these prices the targets would be 44K bullish or 20K for bearish target.

Personally I think a breakdown would turn into a fake out. 

And a breakout would get stopped out at 37K as that level has a massive volume resistance.

I'd be gladly surprised if today we broke out in (6). I think there's still a bear party in the house. 

Let's continue monitoring this multi-week pattern.